Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

28 January 2011 Last updated at 16:48 GMT
Analysis: Why Egypt matters
By Roger Hardy Middle East analyst, Woodrow Wilson Center
Protesters in Cairo, 28 February 2011

There have been demonstrations in Cairo and several other cities

If Egyptian unrest turns into an Egyptian revolution, the implications for the Arab world - and for Western policy in the Middle East - will be immense.

Egypt matters, in a way that tiny Tunisia - key catalyst that it has been in the current wave of protest - does not.

It matters because its destiny affects, in a range of ways, not only Arab interests but Israeli, Iranian and Western interests, too.

Egypt, the most populous Arab state, can help determine the thrust of Arab policies - whether towards Israel or Iran or in the perennial quest for Arab consensus on issues that matter.

Above all, the Egyptian state has traditionally had a strength and solidity that made its collapse seem unthinkable.

Even now, with so much that is uncertain, that state and its basic structures may survive - with or without Hosni Mubarak, the country's president for the last three decades.


Islamist wild card

If there is a power vacuum, who is likely to fill it?


Protesters in Cairo hold a poster showing the image of President Hosni Mubarak, 28 February 2011 Hosni Mubarak has been in power for three decades

Will the powerful military intervene to restore stability?

If they did, would the protesters accept such a scenario - or would they, like their Tunisian counterparts, keep up the pressure for radical change?

And - the wild card that troubles Western policy-makers most - could the Muslim Brotherhood, the country's Islamist opposition movement, somehow exploit the protests to come to power?

Right now, that scenario seems far-fetched. The Brotherhood is trying to jump on the bandwagon of a youthful and largely leaderless protest movement.

They are not in front. They are trying to catch up.

But the situation is volatile. New leaders - nationalist or Islamist, civilian or military - could emerge if the country is engulfed in chaos.


Regional consequences

If the Mubarak regime were to collapse - which is still a big "if" - the fall-out would affect virtually every key player in the region and every key issue.

• For Arab autocrats, it would signify the writing on the wall in a far more dramatic way than the fall of the Ben Ali regime in Tunisia.

• For Arab protesters, it would be a great boost, fuelling the idea that the region has entered a new era of "people power".

• It would deal a blow to an already enfeebled Middle East peace process. Egypt was the first Arab state to sign a peace treaty with Israel, back in the 1970s. A change of regime would alarm Israeli leaders and deepen the siege mentality among many Israelis.

• It would affect business confidence, regionally and even globally, especially if oil prices shot up.

• Finally, it would pose painful dilemmas for Western policy-makers who have long favoured gradual political reform in the region, fearful that the alternative could be the breakdown of stability and the rise of extremism.

Right now, Arab rulers and Arab citizens are glued to their TV screens, computers and mobile phones for news of how the drama is unfolding.

It will be some time before the smoke and tear gas settle, and the new face of this troubled region begins to come into focus.

Al-Jazeera's live footage is showing a lot of tanks now on the streets of Cairo – and a lot of civilians milling about them unhindered

By publishing this, is our media is putting the protesters in jeopardy and aiding the Egyptian government in being able to anticipate and put down their tactics?

The barren, horrible truth, however, is that save for its brutal police force and its ominously docile army – which, by the way, does not look favourably upon Mubarak's son Gamal – the government is powerless. This is revolution by Twitter and revolution by Facebook, and technology long ago took away the dismal rules of censorship.....

...a kind of Egyptian nationalism – rather than Islamism – is making itself felt at the demonstrations. January 25 is National Police Day – to honour the police force who died fighting British troops in Ishmaelia – and the government clucked its tongue at the crowds, telling them they were disgracing their martyrs. No, shouted the crowds, those policemen who died at Ishmaelia were brave men, not represented by their descendants in uniform today.

This is not an unclever government, though. There is a kind of shrewdness in the gradual freeing of the press and television of this ramshackle pseudo-democracy. Egyptians had been given just enough air to breathe, to keep them quiet, to enjoy their docility in this vast farming land. Farmers are not revolutionaries, but when the millions thronged to the great cities, to the slums and collapsing houses and universities, which gave them degrees and no jobs, something must have happened. .....

..The Americans and the EU are telling the regime to listen to the people – but who are these people, who are their leaders? This is not an Islamic uprising – though it could become one – but, save for the usual talk of Muslim Brotherhood participation in the demonstrations, it is just one mass of Egyptians stifled by decades of failure and humiliation.

But all the Americans seem able to offer Mubarak is a suggestion of reforms – something Egyptians have heard many times before. It's not the first time that violence has come to Egypt's streets, of course. In 1977, there were mass food riots – I was in Cairo at the time and there were many angry, starving people – but the Sadat government managed to control the people by lowering food prices and by imprisonment and torture. There have been police mutinies before – one ruthlessly suppressed by Mubarak himself. But this is something new.

Interestingly, there seems no animosity towards foreigners. Many journalists have been protected by the crowds and – despite America's lamentable support for the Middle East's dictators – there has not so far been a single US flag burned. That shows you what's new. Perhaps a people have grown up – only to discover that their ageing government are all children. .....

"a minister in the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu," and reports that Israel appears to be backing the Mubarak regime:

An Associated Press reporter saw the protesters cheering the police who joined them and hoisting them on their shoulders

Mubarak sacks Egypt's government, vows reform
January 29, 2011 - 10:32AM/the AGE

President Hosni Mubarak has sacked Egypt's government and vowed to bring in democratic reforms, in a televised address to the nation after several days of deadly anti-regime protests.

"I have asked the government to resign and tomorrow there will be a new government," a stoney-faced Mubarak said early on Saturday after four days of protests demanding his resignation in which at least 27 people have been killed.

Mubarak, in power for three decades, vowed to bring in "new measures" for democracy and justice without giving any indication of other changes, even as protests raged in Cairo and other cities despite a night-time curfew.

AFP

28 January 2011 Last updated at 23:52 GMT
Egypt: Mubarak sacks cabinet and defends security role

President Hosni Mubarak has defended the role of Egypt's security forces in suppressing anti-government protests which have rocked the country. ....

In his first address on the political unrest in Egypt, President Barack Obama called on the Egyptian government to refrain from committing violence against peaceful protesters.

"The people of Egypt have rights that are universal," Obama said.

The US president stated that President Hosni Mubarak should restore the protesters' rights to assemble, speak, and self-determination. He also called for the Egyptian government to return access to the Internet and other telecommunications to the people.

"These are human rights and the United States will stand for them everywhere," Obama said.

Obama, who said that his administration had been closely monitoring the situation in Egypt, maintained that the protesters should also act peacefully.

"Violence and destruction will not lead to the reforms they seek," he said.

Obama explained that he spoke with President Mubarak soon after the long-time leader gave his first televised statement in Egypt. Obama said that Mubarak should live up to his promise of social reforms.

"I told him he has a responsibility to give meaning to those words," Obama said, adding that Egyptians need concrete steps to see those reforms happen.

Obama also call for a "meaningful dialogue" between the Egyptian government and its citizens, and vowed to remain a partner of "all quarters" of Egypt in its development.