Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

The "no part of the Egyptian culture" bit byVice-president Suleiman reminded me of the Mexican government against the student revolt in 1968. According to President Diaz Ordaz, students were infected with ideas "alien to our idiosincrasy".
Those ideas were democracy and socialism.
And of course it meant that both the US and the USSR were supposed to be behind the movement. The government was paranoid: it fell subject to a big foreign conspiracy from all powers... who also wanted to weaken a proud country with a one-party nationalist revolution.

Perhaps when Suleiman said "we all respect Mubarak as father and leader", he meant that "Egyptian culture" is to adore the Pharaoh.
"The Pharaoh is naked", said the child.

BUT certainly protesters are not the Egyptian culture. There is certainly a humus, a widespread cultural background of Arab Nationalist ideology, planted by Nasser and his mates. And it's difficult to imagine it fading fastly.

The Arab revolution and Western decline

I woke up this morning expecting to learn of a blood bath in progress in Cairo.

Fortunately that doesn't seem to be the case, but the fluidity of this situation is one of the things that makes it so fascinating.

Personally, I think this thread has been thoroughly enjoyable.

There are some members who are content to post the latest news, and some who wish to offer conjecture as to what it all may mean. I'm happy with both (and have played both roles)

From time to time the thread has followed tributary discussions, but almost always there has been a strong connection to the main flow, and unlike some other threads, none of these discussions have shut down participation from a wide group.

Because I've been stuck in the house most of this week, I've been following this thread more closely than any others.

It's interesting to see how many posters seem to arrive and leave in shifts. This sometimes leads to repetition, but it’s tough to come into so fast moving a thread and read through 5 or 6 pages of prior discussion. It would be nice if folks did, but it's unreasonable to expect it.

In any case, this is, after all, just an internet discussion forum. If anyone is repelled by the substance of this particular discussion they may avoid the thread...or they can post in the thread how much it repels them.

Now...what's this about Obama brokering a deal to get Mubarak to leave this weekend? Who said America doesn’t have clout?!

"soul mates?" Come on, georgeob, what we have here are opinions that are derived mostly from what we see and hear from the media that are reporting on this crisis in Egypt.

I haven't heard any poster here say they will be going to Egypt to participate in this "demonstration."

More from the twitter feed of the AJ guy who is at Tahrir square -



Cycloptichorn

Allow georgeob some sass in his posts.

There are folks on this thread who clearly feel a personal connection to the demonstraters in Egypt and are watching events unfold with an interest that transcends geo-politics or history in the making.

I think, for some, this introduces a level of subjectivity into their views that may steer their conclusions to where they would like them to go rather than to where facts suggest they will, but thus far, I don't think anyone has revealed themselves to be a seer.

It really doesn't matter what people sitting in their living rooms outside of Egypt want, hope, or believe will happen, but for those who are hoping the protesters will stand their ground, if there is a terrible blood-bath, they may come to wish these folks had dispersed earlier.

I believe Obama said that.

5:05pm: Jack Shenker has been speaking to people within the youth movement in Egypt, mainly based online, who have told him they have four very specific demands. They do not represent everyone but they do constitute an important part of the opposition:

• the removal of Hosni Mubarak and the "whole apparatus of the Mubarak regime";

• a committee which will appoint a transitional government, the committee to be made up of 6 named senior judges, six representatives from their youth movement and two members of the military

• a council to draw up a new constitution, which would then be put to the people in a referendum

• elections at national and local level in accordance with the constitution

There's really no choice in an open forum. And, in writing this, I'm contributing to the same sidebar that makes it about us and our interactions with each other vs what's happening in Egypt. I honestly don't contribute here to join a camp of name-calling, snowball-throwing, tit-for-tat "sides" that are so prevalent here at A2K. I'm interested in the events that are unfolding and have no illusions that I'm a compatriot to one or another of the factions involved in the fray. I'm routing for those who are peacefully demonstrating to keep their wits and their heads (literally and figuratively) and to ultimately be a vehicle of peaceful transformation, if transformation is what is needed. Only time will tell how it all turns out, but it's an interesting time for sure.

Spendi is right -- this is history in the making and only technology and "media" allow us to see it in all its glory/gory details. OTOH, I find George's sass to be patronizing pap which adds nothing to the thread other than a typical sling of an ineffective snow ball.

According to reports Mr Mubarak was so enraged after his phone conversation with President Obama that he bundled the special envoy the latter had sent on a plane back to Washington.

I suspect that Mr Mubarak's rage resulted from his being talked to in the manner Mr Obama addressed the American electorate before the election and which betrayed a total ignorance of conditions on the ground in Egypt.

If Mr Mubarak can be criticised for not seeing it coming I suppose that is to be expected if he surrounded himself with yes-men. But that would only show the error in his surrounding himself with such comforts.

6:21pm: After Mubarak said Obama did not understand Egyptian culture (7.32am) Egypt has now turned its ire to the UN, Reuters reports:

Egypt has told the United Nations it is unhappy with Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's public criticism of the Egyptian government and his calls for change, according to a spokeswoman for Egypt's UN mission. Ban this week urged Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and his government to take "bold measures" to address the concerns of people demonstrating for change. He urged Mubarak's government to view the demonstrations "as an opportunity to engage in addressing the legitimate concerns of the people."
Egypt's mission to the United Nations in New York expressed its annoyance with Ban, who made public remarks about Egypt while attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, as well as during visits to Britain and Germany. "Egypt has verbally complained about the characterization of the SG (secretary-general) of the situation in Egypt," Nihal Saad, a spokeswoman for the Egyptian mission, said in an e-mail late on Thursday. "The remarks made by the SG, whether in Davos or London, were viewed as raising the bar above all the other remarks that have been made by other member states, including those who criticized Egypt," she added.
U.N. spokesman Farhan Haq confirmed that U.N. officials had discussed Ban's remarks with the Egyptian mission and added: "We stand by what he has been saying."

And since...

A guy who has - through means savory and non - held power for 30 years or more is critical of those who point out that there are some problems with this situation, and that he needs to change the situation?

Shocking!

Cycloptichorn

http://www.euractiv.com/en/future-eu/prodi-eu-needs-define-final-borders/article-113803

6:16pm: Egyptian PM Ahmed Shafiq has been talking on al-Arabiya defending Mubarak's right to stay in office and he said it was "unlikely" he would hand over to his vice president Omar Suleiman.

I don't think that a president after 30 years....after all these years of public service..these five months are not going to make much difference.

The whole point is that they do make a difference to the protesters.

I'm no fan of Mubarak, I consider him a brutal dictator and would be more than happy to see the Egyptians replace him with a democratic alternative, even if they have to do it by force, but it's not unreasonable that he doesn't hold the "point" of the protesters in high regard.

There are 79 million people in Egypt.

Perhaps a million have been calling for him to step down, and of that amount a large number are probably on the verge of giving up.

If 3.7 million people turned up in Washington DC, calling for Obama to resign and leave the country, do you think he would?

I think you'll agree that he's probably not sitting in his presidential palace thinking:

"I'm such a bloody brutal dictator who has done nothing but oppress my people. It's amazing it took them this long to try and kick my ass out of here."

What he thinks about his presidency may have no bearing on how history will view it, but it certainly makes a difference in terms of what he decides to do.

He succeeded Sadat after the former president was assinated by an Islamist group, and has since surrvived six separate attempts on his life. The identity of the assassins in each attempt cannot be confirmed but most were Islamists.

Given that experience, is it unreasonable of him to suspect that the current uprising is being controlled or heavily influenced, behind the scenes, by Islamists?

If there is a president anywhere who has been steeped in the workings of clandestine plots and subterfuge it is Mubarak. He has actually seen and participated in scenarios we only read about in novels. I have a feeling his understanding of the way power is obtained and held in the Middle East is a lot more accurate than any we can muster.

Depending upon how entrenched Mubarak is in the Egyptian military power base, it makes a big difference how he thinks.

Some may be interested in Timothy Egan's opinion piece in the NY Times yesterday - excuse me if this has already been posted:

February 3, 2011, 8:30 PM
Bonfire of American Vanities

http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/03/bonfire-of-american-vanities/?partner=rss&emc=rss

He has drastically changed the situation. He sacked his cabinet and there's talk of some members of it being put on trial and he has announced his resignation. His son, the previous heir apparent, has left the country and the new vice-president has announced that he won't be standing in the September election. Assuming it takes place.

That's pretty drastic change. The transition has already started. "Now" is out of date.

My feeling is that Mubarak is quite honest as he had not stashed any money anywhere that is why he is sticking around. He is a stolid kind of guy but rather dull. It seems like people knew he was getting on in years and wanted to push him out using the Tunisia event as a pretext. They thought he was 82 so he must be weak but strangely he is in excellent health and very robust so there might have been a miscalculation on their part.

See this topic about lands below sea level http://able2know.org/topic/160935-1

I showed concern about Mubarak's age.

Now is not out of date as long as Mubarak stays in office.