53
   

Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

 
 
roger
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Feb, 2011 12:04 am
@msolga,
msolga wrote:

Quote:
Egypt's vice-president has said protesters calling for the departure of Hosni Mubarak, the president, are not "part of the Egyptian culture", saying "we all respect Mubarak as father and leader".


"Not part of the Egyptian culture"? They are the Egyptian culture. I doubt Suleiman is going to be part of the solution.
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Feb, 2011 12:27 am
@roger,
Well yes, they are.

Of course I couldn't possibly know whether he will or won't become the next president, either, roger.

Nor whether, if he actually did become the new president (even with major concessions), that this would be an acceptable "solution" for the anti-government protesters or not....

I guess all we can do is try & keep as best informed as we can & see what eventuates. I'm hoping that, whatever eventuates, that the outcome reflects the hopes & aspirations of those brave demonstrators on the streets.
JTT
 
  2  
Reply Fri 4 Feb, 2011 12:49 am
@georgeob1,
You're great at dispensing lectures, Gob. All this hypocrisy from a guy who did three tours helping to ensure that no part of inhabited Vietnam, a country no American knew anything about, was left unbombed.

More bombs than all of WWII, I've heard. I know you'll correct me if I'm wrong, Gob, being that you're so interested in the truth.
0 Replies
 
Ionus
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Feb, 2011 01:03 am
@JTT,
Quote:
that makes people hate the US
Dont delude yourself. Only sickos like you hate that many people. Do you seriously believe we could not find one good man in the USA ?
msolga
 
  2  
Reply Fri 4 Feb, 2011 01:11 am
@msolga,
Lengthy and detailed update from the BBC:

Quote:

Egypt set for 'Day of Departure'

4 February 2011 Last updated at 06:35 GMT

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/51096000/jpg/_51096082_011184521-1.jpg
A wounded anti-government protester holds an Egyptian flag in Tahrir Square, Cairo (3 Feb 2011) Hundreds have been injured in the clashes

Organisers are calling for tens of thousands of people to gather in Tahrir Square, where days of unrest have led to hundreds of casualties.

Mr Mubarak is under increasing pressure to resign, with the US now calling for an immediate transition of power.

He says such a move would leave Egypt in chaos, but has admitted he is "fed up" with being in power.

In his first interview since anti-government protests began, he told ABC News he would like to resign immediately.

But he repeated his long-held assertion that the country's Islamist opposition - the Muslim Brotherhood - would fill the power vacuum left by his absence.

The protest organisers are demanding that he leave immediately and have said they plan to march on the presidential palace on Friday.

They have been angered further by the emergence in recent days of pro-Mubarak gangs - many suspected to be plain clothes police - who have attacked anti-government protesters.

The protesters have called for tens of thousands of people to gather in the capital after Friday prayers to put the "last nail in the regime's coffin".

The BBC's Ian Pannell in Cairo says there appears to be a far larger army presence in Tahrir Square on Friday morning, with far fewer pro-Mubarak supporters.


'Meaningful transition'

Egypt's Vice President Omar Suleiman has appealed for calm and urged the protesters to accept Mr Mubarak's pledge that he will not stand for election again.

But it has now emerged that the White House has been in talks with Mr Suleiman about how Egypt can begin making a "meaningful transition" to a democratic government that addresses the aspirations of the Egyptian people.


US Vice-President Joe Biden spoke to his Egyptian counterpart on Thursday, say diplomats, a day after Mr Suleiman had similar talks with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

The New York Times suggested that among the proposals was a plan for Mr Mubarak to resign immediately and hand power to a military-backed interim government under Mr Suleiman.

Neither the White House nor the state department have directly denied the report.

But a spokesman for the President Barack Obama's National Security Council said it was "time to begin a peaceful, orderly and meaningful transition, with credible, inclusive negotiations".

"We have discussed with the Egyptians a variety of different ways to move that process forward, but all of those decisions must be made by the Egyptian people," said Tommy Vietor.

The BBC's Mark Mardell in Washington says other reports suggest the US plan has already been rebuffed in Egypt, and that the administration has been surprised by the attitude of the military and Mr Suleiman.

The reports say officials believe Mr Suleiman was aware of the apparent campaign in recent days to intimidate the opposition, and are now wondering whether he is the right man to lead an interim government, says our correspondent.


'Outrageous' violence

The crisis in Egypt has intensified in recent days as supporters of Mr Mubarak have begun attacking protesters in the capital.

Stones were thrown on both sides, and there were reports of gunfire, while footage has emerged of vehicles being driven at speed through crowds of protesters.

Foreign journalists reporting for several organisations have been attacked, with Mubarak supporters reported to have stormed a number of Cairo hotels.

The army, which has said the protests are legitimate, has been trying to keep the two sides apart but appeared to have failed to control the crowds.

Late in the evening, a number of political activists were arrested by military police, as were representatives of Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International.

Tens of thousands of people remained in central Cairo after dark on Thursday, some involved in running battles with Mubarak supporters.

The attacks have drawn condemnation from Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain, as well as UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.

"Let me be totally clear: this is outrageous and totally unacceptable, it must stop now," Mr Ban said.


In his interview with ABC News, Mr Mubarak denied that his administration was behind the violence of the last two days but said it had troubled him.

The BBC's Kevin Connolly in Cairo said very few Egyptian will accept that version of events.

But the interview gave a fascinating insight into what is going on in the president's mind as he surveys the chaos in the capital, says our correspondent.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12362826
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Feb, 2011 05:22 am
@Finn dAbuzz,
Quote:
Do you find discussion about what is happening in Egypt and what might happen unseemly?


A lot of it--yes.

Katie Couric was "Live in Cairo" on Wed night. Last night she was "Live in New York". I would like to see the details of that little transaction.

Our respective official statements are for home consumption. They are playing to the grandstands.

revelette
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Feb, 2011 07:44 am
Quote:
1313: Margaret in Giza says: "I haven't been out of my house since Monday. While the days are calm, at night it is scary with sounds gunfire. The men go out to protect the small family houses on my street. Everyone is taking responsibility and it has been wonderful, empowering, and very humbling. At the beginning of the protests there was a demonstration in Pyramid Street but since then, it has been quiet - people have been keeping their heads down. Thugs are completely able to do what they want and the secret police are more like an army of control - I think most of the trouble stems from them."


Quote:
1309: Mosa'ab Elshamy, an anti-Mubarak protester in Tahrir Square, tells the BBC World Service what could happen if the day ends with Mubarak still in office: "Today we call it the Friday of departure. If not, it could be the Saturday of departure or it could be the Sunday. We have no other option but to stay in Tahrir Square, for those who were killed and for those who led the lines and died here in Tahrir."


meanwhile:

Quote:
1332: The BBC's Khaled Ezzelarab reports there has been a stone-throwing clash between protesters in Tahrir Square. Meanwhile, the BBC's Islam Saad says around 2000 supporters of Mr Mubarak have joined the Mustafa Mahmoud Square demo. He says: "They are waving Egyptian flags and chanting: 'Yes to Mubarak, yes to stability. 30 years of peace.'"


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

The violence didn't seem to be so bad until the so called "pro-Mubarak supporters" showed up.

If Mubarak would step down and others take the transitional lead, then the markets could open again. The burden is on him.

spendius
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Feb, 2011 07:59 am
@revelette,
Quote:
If Mubarak would step down and others take the transitional lead, then the markets could open again. The burden is on him.


That sort of statement comes from a similar place as the cutely dressed lady presenter on Sky News just now who swept out her free arm in an expansive gesture as she said the words "throughout the Middle East."

To someone who has been in enough of those countries to have lost count of them such things are absurd. It's as if these nations are counters on a board game which is being played to while away the hours between the more important tasks such as eating dinner or the performance in the dressing room before going "on air". From getting out of bed to going "on air" is a delicious subject to meditate upon.
georgeob1
 
  0  
Reply Fri 4 Feb, 2011 08:29 am
@spendius,
I agree with you on this. It is bemusing to note the number of folks here who apparently believe they are soul mates of imagined young Twittering protestors in the main square in Cairo and that there is nothing more involved or needed here than the swift fulfillment their wishes - all on a fanciful chessboard model of a wide area of the world.

We can at best but guess and hope. Our countries are not without influence, but it is merely influence at best. The complex and only partly understood dynamic of events will play out in the approximate pattern we call history.
JPB
 
  4  
Reply Fri 4 Feb, 2011 08:58 am
@georgeob1,
Interesting. I have no idea where that assessment originates. I haven't seen it here at all. I can think of one poster who might consider herself a soul mate but, even in that case, I don't think anyone is as naive as you imagine.
0 Replies
 
hingehead
 
  4  
Reply Fri 4 Feb, 2011 08:58 am
@georgeob1,
Quote:
It is bemusing to note the number of folks here who apparently believe they are soul mates of imagined young Twittering protestors in the main square in Cairo

Show me just one example shows any poster feels that and I'll be stunned.

Quote:
We can at best but guess and hope. Our countries are not without influence, but it is merely influence at best. The complex and only partly understood dynamic of events will play out in the approximate pattern we call history.


Of course your absolutely right, we shouldn't bother discussing any of this because history will sort it out. Help me jeebus. History is what happens when you put your hands to your ears and say blah blah blah I'm not listening to you.

0 Replies
 
JTT
 
  -1  
Reply Fri 4 Feb, 2011 09:13 am
@Ionus,
The "thinking" of a "yes sir" grunt who long ago surrendered his brain in exchange for lifetime care.
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Feb, 2011 09:18 am
What it ought to be is a salutary lesson to those history teachers who Setanta has been so unfortunately exposed to. Here you have history in the making going at the same speed events proceeded during the Seven Years War and as they did with the abduction of Argive Nell and the aftermath which I know is a biological term, in case any po-faced pedantic pillock feels moved to take me to task on the matter of traditional usage when I am a well known supporter of such purity, but I bow to popular opinion when it reaches criticality.

In my opinion nobody will ever understand history who cannot watch these events whilst considering the ones mentioned above in a similar light. Or, as it is impossible, at least trying to. It is that trying to, which like everything else improves with practice, that history teachers have knocked out of us with their sweeps of the arm. One might at least expect them to be dangling a cigarette between the loose fingers of the flaccid hand on the end of it. To point up the irony I mean.

The progress since the old days being seen in Tahiri Square in the portaloos, the number of equipt white-coated medics rushing to anyone with a cut on their head, the commodities of the dealers on the edges of the mob and the vast increase in the number of people having a beady eye on the confusion most of whom couldn't have pointed to Egypt on a map of the world before this week.

I have been told that the relief from the confusion can be audible on the first tee of a flash 18 hole golf course. Except for the professionals I mean.

The facilities available to the battling factions in Tahiri Square were not on hand at the Battle of Actium on which it is said so much has depended. We now do pretty humane battling factions. Not as humane as one might hope but the direction is towards it.

The real big story is communications. Television etc. Oh boy--what a story that is. One can detect shifts of mood as they try to decide which side to not offend.
0 Replies
 
revelette
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Feb, 2011 09:20 am
@spendius,
I simply find it interesting and I am finding myself sort of like a fan in an audience cheering the protesters on and I really don't see what harm it does and more voices in (not really mine on a message board, but whatever) support from wherever it is, might just give it more momentum to support them to keep going.

Also, this is a newsworthy event whether some cutesy girl reports it or a old guy in a suit behind a desk. If the protesters are successful and there is a new kind of government in Egypt; one where there is a real government elected by those very same people, doing the will of the people, forgive me for supporting and cheering such a idea and hopefully event and posting information gathered from BBC where they are keeping live updates and tweets along the way. Feel free to ignore it.
spendius
 
  0  
Reply Fri 4 Feb, 2011 09:28 am
@revelette,
Quote:
I simply find it interesting and I am finding myself sort of like a fan in an audience cheering the protesters on and I really don't see what harm it does and more voices in (not really mine on a message board, but whatever) support from wherever it is, might just give it more momentum to support them to keep going.


I presume you mean the entertainment to keep going. It is good I'll admit. For myself I haven't the faintest idea what is the best outcome. I'm not a fortune teller.

I won't be ignoring what you post revelette. I like your username too much for that.
Endymion
 
  5  
Reply Fri 4 Feb, 2011 09:29 am
@georgeob1,
Quote:
It is bemusing to note the number of folks here who apparently believe they are soul mates of imagined young Twittering protestors in the main square in Cairo and that there is nothing more involved or needed here than the swift fulfillment their wishes - all on a fanciful chessboard model of a wide area of the world.


Aren't you presuming rather a lot? I find that bemusing.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Fri 4 Feb, 2011 09:33 am
1:25pm: Ian Black, the Guardian's middle east editor, writes that President Hosni Mubarak faces four possible scenarios in the short-term future:

Climbdown The Obama administration arm-twists Mubarak into quitting immediately and handing over power to a transitional government headed by his deputy, Omar Suleiman. That would oversee constitutional and legislative changes to pave the way for new parliamentary and presidential elections. With much talk by the regime of the need for an "honourable" solution, Mubarak is persuaded by Suleiman and the military that he needs urgent medical treatment abroad followed by a period of convalescence in distant Sharm el-Sheikh on the Red Sea.

Protests subside The Egyptian government plays the stability card, arguing that an "orderly transition" is already under way, that constitutional changes will take time, and that Mubarak's sudden departure will only make matters worse. Regime is likely to warn that the banned Muslim Brotherhood is orchestrating violence or will hijack popular protests. It may appeal to US concerns over regional issues, including respecting Egypt's peace treaty with Israel and confronting Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist group that controls Gaza.

Violence escalates Large-scale bloodshed today or on subsequent days hardens the mood in the US, which suspends or halts its annual $1.3bn (£808m) in military aid to Egypt – a grave and likely game-changing blow to the position of the military. Likely to be accompanied by warnings about crimes against humanity so that continued repression carries a personal price tag for key regime figures.

Standoff Protests continue without either serious violence or Mubarak's formal departure while dialogue between government and opposition gathers momentum and constitutional changes start to look convincing, leading to splits in an already divided and largely leaderless protest movement. The opposition has only a negative platform – that the president leave. Negotiations over a transition would be complex.

From what I've seen, Mubarak and the military are looking for a Standoff. That the protesters will eventually tire, the populace will push them to get back to the daily business of living, and the world tires of sitting on the edge of its seat.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  4  
Reply Fri 4 Feb, 2011 09:35 am
1:49pm: The Muslim Brotherhood has said it would not field a presidential candidate or seek ministers in a new cabinet, ABC reports. Christine Amanpour, who interviewed Mubarak yesterday, is interpreting the move as calculated to soothe western fears of an Islamist government succeeding Mubarak.
0 Replies
 
revelette
 
  2  
Reply Fri 4 Feb, 2011 09:51 am
@spendius,
Quote:
I presume you mean the entertainment to keep going.


No, I don't consider those out in the streets are out there just for our entertainment, they have legitimate grievances and they want Mubarak gone.

I think it would be more dangerous if their grievances gets ignored and life just goes on as before, apparently full of corruption and neptunism and secret police suppressing Egypt's citizens by force. What I like about this protest is that it is a protest of wanting change through means other than violence which should be encouraged. Rather than its poor and unemployed youth joining militant extremist groups.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Feb, 2011 09:56 am
@spendius,
spendius wrote:

Quote:
Do you find discussion about what is happening in Egypt and what might happen unseemly?


A lot of it--yes.

Katie Couric was "Live in Cairo" on Wed night. Last night she was "Live in New York". I would like to see the details of that little transaction.

Our respective official statements are for home consumption. They are playing to the grandstands.


Such is the news media.

I stopped listening to Katie Couric once she started to consider herself a "seasoned journalist," on the Today show.

0 Replies
 
 

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