Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

8:16pm: The Egyptian government has just hit back at the international accusations relating to attacks on journalists in the last few days. In a statement, the ministry of information said:

Statements issued by a number of international sources alleging an official policy against international media are false. Acts of violence against journalists, or any person are unacceptable. International media have been, and are always welcome in Egypt...In instances international media have been detained for questioning by the authorities, the ministry of information, represented by the state information service, has worked closely and successfully with authorities to expedite the process of their release. Regrettably, international journalists have been endangered by the same conditions that have threatened all Egyptians in areas of the country where there have been major disturbances and a breakdown of security.

There's no question in my mind that the Brotherhood is his biggest boogieman. He's been singing that song for 30 years and there's no reason to think he doesn't feel the same way about Islamists now as he has all that time.

What's obvious, however, is that he's out of touch with the reality of the will of his people. Or, has been out of touch at least. Maybe he's getting it now, but I've listened to every speech/interview he's given in the past two weeks and he seems to be 2-5 days behind the curve.

Now he's dug in and feeling stabbed/abandoned by his people and the world. Nearly every statement coming out of his leadership group seems to be conflicted between acknowledging the demands of the protesters and saving his legacy.

I just posted an official statement that says that all those stories of journalists being arrested are false. Bullshit!

The "now" being referred to in US spechifying is that the process of peaceful and orderly transition to a freer society in Egypt should begin "now". It began last week.

That's the "now" I was talking about. There's only an hour to go before the Day of Departure is postponed.

More Attacks and Detentions for Journalists in Cairo
By J. DAVID GOODMAN
Published: February 4, 2011


Reporters in Cairo faced a second day of violent intimidation and government detention on Friday even as dozens of foreign journalists and rights advocates were still being detained, suggesting that the effort to stifle the flow of news out of Egypt had slowed but not ended.

The Committee to Protect Journalists documented eight new detentions and nearly a dozen new attacks, and also reported on Friday the first case of a reporter killed while covering the unrest in Egypt.

9:35pm GMT: European leaders have taken a more cautious stance than David Cameron, in a joint statement at the conclusion after a one-day EU summit in Brussels today. But the AP reports this development:

In Greece, Prime Minister George Papandreou said he would visit Egypt to deliver a message from the 27-nation bloc to embattled Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Papandreou said he expected the visit to take place Sunday. He refused to say what was contained in the message, saying it wouldn't be appropriate to reveal any details before meeting Mubarak.

9:50pm: Evan Hill, a producer for al-Jazeera English who lives in Cairo, tweets an interesting development: Egyptian state television suddenly taking a more sympathetic attitude towards the protests:

State TV interviewing pro-democracy guy with injured right hand in the studio and showing pics from inside Tahrir. Their tone is changing.less than a minute ago via HootSuiteEvan Hill
evanchill

Evan also reports that there's talk of a possible strategy "that will walk Mubarak down from the presidency".

10:17pm: On the US selling tear gas to the Egyptian police in spite of well documented fears about its likely mis-use, Pro Publica has a look at who approved what:

So why did the State Department license the sale of American-made tear gas to be used by the Egyptian police, when the State Department itself has documented the police's history of brutality? When I asked this question, I received the following response, in full:

"The US government licensed the sale of certain crowd dispersal articles to the government of Egypt. That license was granted after a thorough vetting process and after a multi-agency review of the articles that were requested."

Noticeably absent in that answer was anything about the Egyptian police. When I pressed further and mentioned this WikiLeaks cable — written by US Ambassador Margaret Scobey describing "routine and pervasive" police brutality and torture in Egypt—the response was immediate.

"I cannot provide any authentication of anything that has been published by the website WikiLeaks," Thompson said.

I hope this is the beginning of the end of this crisis.

I suspect that you CI are completely ignorant of abuse tactics, not that this is a bad thing. Abusers always profit from fermenting a certain unpredictability, the victim knows that the blow will come but they have no way to predict when it will come, they are always off balance, driven to that state by the abuser. Murbarak goes to this tactic again and again...

There were 2 interesting stories on NPR's All Things Considered program. In one, an NPR reporter got to Alexandria today. The protests there are less jubilant then in Cairo. In brief, the people there are tired, hungry and more anti-western and anti-media. Evidently there is little police or military involvement.
The 2nd story had to do with the military in Egypt. After one of the wars with Israel decades ago they had too many unneeded soldiers which the civilian economy could not absorb. So the military got into a multitude of businesses from manufacturing (washing machines) to hospitality (hotel development). Those enterprises have lined the pockets of senior military leaders.
We have talked about the conflicted grunts on the ground but there is also an issue re the senior military leadership and how their decisions could be influenced by how they will personally be affected financially.

Money isn't everything, but as we all know, following the money is a good part of wisdom.

If it's true that the military brass got involved in building up of hotel development, they need to help the Egyptians to settle this crisis, because hotels without tourism will only hurt their pocket books.

11:24pm: More details on the destruction of al-Jazeera's office in Cairo today. The channel said in a statement:

"The Al Jazeera Network has reported that its office in Cairo has been stormed by gangs of thugs. The office has been burned along with the equipment inside it. It appears to be the latest attempt by the Egyptian regime or its supporters to hinder Al Jazeera's coverage of events in the country."

11.10pm GMT:The New York Times has just posted an account by its two journalists and their driver who were arrested and handed over to the notorious Mukhabarat secret police. It's a chilling glimpse of what many Egyptians have been through:

We had been detained by Egyptian authorities, handed over to the country's dreaded Mukhabarat, the secret police, and interrogated. They left us all night in a cold room, on hard orange plastic stools, under fluorescent lights.

But our discomfort paled in comparison to the dull whacks and the screams of pain by Egyptian people that broke the stillness of the night. In one instance, between the cries of suffering, an officer said in Arabic, "You are talking to journalists? You are talking badly about your country?"

11.03pm GMT: Horrific video circulated yesterday of a vehicle speeding through Cairo and hitting several people. Now the US embassy has put out a statement:

We have seen a video that alleges a US embassy vehicle was involved in a hit and run incident that injured dozens in Cairo. We are certain that no embassy employees or diplomats were involved in this incident. On January 28, however, a number of our US Embassy vehicles were stolen. Since these vehicles were stolen, we have heard reports of their use in violent and criminal acts. If true, we deplore these acts and the perpetrators.

10.48pm GMT: Al-Jazeera's Arabic channel bureau chief Abdelfattah Fayed and another staff member have been arrested by Egyptian police, the channel is reporting.

CloseLink to this update: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2011/feb/04/egypt-protests-day-departure-live#block-131

Oof! (and worse words)

It seems to me that arresting journalists and having them witness firsthand the treatment of the police is just about the dumbest thing the leadership can do. What? Do they think that journalists aren't going to tell their stories?

That's what I meant by counterintuitive a while back - but that they don't get that is ominous.
I'm going to have to look up Mukhaburat and the secret police, I've read about them in Egypt before..

Aha, I thought I connected it to Nasser in some way -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_General_Intelligence_Directorate

Don't worry, the Superbowl will knock it out of the news cycle soon enough.

What's the Superbowl?

You're probably right.