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Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

 
 
spendius
 
  2  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 05:46 pm
Sky News has just admitted--"We cannot now film".
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 06:02 pm
@spendius,
11:03pm: Wolf Blitzer is on CNN, explaining that the channel has had limited coverage of Egypt today because of the attacks on journalists: "This has made it impossible for us to show live pictures."

CNN's Anderson Cooper – attacked yesterday in the street near Tahrir Square – today had his car attacked and its windows smashed.

10.49pm GMT: In yesterday's live blog we linked to an excellent article by The Atlantic's Graeme Wood. Today he has another piece, but this time headlined: "Why I Was Dragged Through the Street by an Egyptian Mob".
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 06:02 pm
@JPB,
the Aljazeera live shot of Tahrir Sq had to be pulled as it was putting our lives at risk. Will be back up as soon as its safe to do soless than a minute ago via webDan Nolan
nolanjazeera
0 Replies
 
McTag
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 06:04 pm
@spendius,

There's nothing else for it.

We'll have to send Kate Adie.
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  2  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 06:04 pm
@JPB,
Quote:
So, we should leave it to the big kids, eh? I disagree. If a couple million people can put their lives at risk to try to get some control over the structure of their government, the least we can do is be interested and engaged.


I am extremely interested. I can't say I'm engaged though.

Yes--I do think it is for the "big kids" as you so blithely call them. Tahrir Square is not Egypt. Egypt is about paying salaries, welfare benefits and pensions and invoices being made out with confidence. It is about food supplies, electricity and water connections and the Suez Canal being open.

It is not an entity for you, or journalists, to jack off on.

Clever-dicks might not believe Mr Mubarak when he says there will be chaos if he leaves now but he might be right and chaos is really nasty. Do we want a democratic Egypt? It's a hypothesis.

What is Iranian radio beaming into there?

What are the Russians and Chinese doing? There is a space known as "behind the scenes".
JPB
 
  3  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 06:07 pm
11:28pm: Catching up with the latest comments from the US state department. Anticipating Friday's planned protests, spokesman PJ Crowley said:

"We are bracing for a significant increase in the number of demonstrators on the streets and with that, given yesterday's events, the real prospects of a confrontation."

Crowley also said that elements close to the government or Mubarak's ruling party appear to have been responsible for the recent outbreaks of violence. "I don't know that we have a sense of how far up the chain it went," he said.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 06:12 pm
@JPB,
Mubarak says he's staying for the Egyptian people. He must be senile to think anybody outside the pro-Mubarak believes him..
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 06:15 pm
@cicerone imposter,
There are some/many/most(?) who want the unrest to stop and are willing to wait until Aug for him to leave.

10:31pm: Reuters has posted a fascinating series of comments from Egyptians in Cairo on the violence that has engulfed the city after days of protests, showing mixed views on the country's future:

Ragab Abdel Hamid Mansour, 48, boat owner on banks of Nile

"The protests have brought my work to a standstill. My work depends on tourists, and there aren't any tourists coming anymore. Everyone is afraid. I want those protests to end now and even not tomorrow. I can't live. I can't even find a loaf of bread."

Amira Hassan, 55, teacher

"I can't carry on with my ordinary life. I can't even go to my dentist because his clinic is downtown. I want this to end so that I can go to work. It makes no difference to me now whether Mubarak stays or leaves. I just want to see security back on the streets so that I can go on with my life."

Gamal Guemeih, 27-year-old financial analyst

"People are feeling more insecure than ever. Over the years, we have taken our safety and security for granted. Vigilantes are doing a great job, but this is not sustainable."

Ahmed Naguib, 48, doctor

"I can't work anymore. Last night, one of my patients was in labour, and I couldn't reach her at all. For how long will this go on?"

Sayed Ibrahim, 41, state employee

"My work has been closed since the protests broke out. I did not take part in any of the protests, but they are affecting my life. Tahrir Square is in the heart of Cairo, and it connects the entire city with each other, and that's why the protests make it difficult for anyone to move."

Mohyi Mahmoud, 57, shop owner

"My shop is my life, and it's my only source of income. It's been closed for a week now, and even if I open it, no one will come and shop under those circumstances."

Mohamed Abdel Razeq, 38, state employee

"I want Egypt's stability back, and that's why I want Hosni Mubarak to stay. He gave us stability."

Hisham Akram, 40, investment banker

"When Mubarak delivered his last speech, a lot of people were satisfied, but after I lived through the horror in Tahrir square yesterday, if I had a single iota of trust in the system, it's disappeared. We've been stabbed in the back. The thugs they unleashed on us in Tahrir Square were hardened criminals. I want Mubarak out now, his continuation in office is jeopardising the lives of Egyptians."

Raga Mahmoud, 35, marketing executive

"I saw a lot of reports all over, and many of the people that are saying 'enough protests' are not pro Mubarak. They just want security and life back. That is what I'm supporting because it's only for a few months. And I don't trust that if Mubarak leaves. the Muslim Brotherhood won't try to take over. We need time to elect someone like Amr Moussa [the head of the Arab League]. If Mubarak leaves now, which some say he could do tomorrow, then who knows what will happen."

"The Muslim Brotherhood are making interviews left and right ... I'm worried about the Islamist movement happening now in Tunisia that was once more liberal than Egypt and their leader is supporting the Brothers in Egypt. Mubarak only has a couple of months left and I too want him to leave with some pride not when the international government say he must go."
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 06:18 pm
@spendius,
I'm interested in the event. My engagement is through media coverage. We all know how you feel about media and in some ways I agree with you. That's why I try to read numerous sources and perspectives. I think that the big kids would prefer that it all be handled behind the scenes. Unfortunately the folks who have to live with the consequences aren't invited to the party.
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 06:19 pm
@JPB,
If Mr Crowley feels the need to say something I suppose we will have to put up with it. He might try saying something less banal though.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 06:21 pm
@JPB,
Always a few quislings in every crowd, who just want to be left alone

Cycloptichorn
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 06:24 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
That's unfair Cylco.
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 06:26 pm
@JPB,
Hisham Akram explained it best; with the leadership backing violence on its own people, what does that say for the future of Egypt? It's more likely Mubarak will lie again, run, and win the election in August through fraud. Where does that put the future of the Egyptian people?

Another important point is that this unrest was created by the simple fact that many Egyptians didn't have jobs or the ability to have food.

I'm not sure what the right answer is, but it's a simple fact that Egypt without tourists will degrade further into chaos.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  3  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 06:29 pm
@spendius,
spendius wrote:

That's unfair Cylco.


No, it isn't unfair. It's the absolute truth. These folks are basically saying, 'well, we don't care if Mubarak is a vile, torturous quasi-dictator - as long as we can go back to making money.'

Cycloptichorn
georgeob1
 
  0  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 06:51 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
It is certainly impressive to note your uncanny grip on the absolute truth of a situation in a country very far removed from your own and the merits of the perspectives of people who are living through the current reality there.

The comments I read didn't suggest they were terribly concerned that Mubarak is, in your judgment, a "vile, torturous quasi dictator". Rather I read that a shopowner wanted to reopen his business; a doctor wanted to be able to take care of his patients and others merely wanted to continue to have access to food and the essential elements in their lives. On what possible basis to you presume to judge that they are "Quislings" ready to betray their country?

It may well be that they are expressing a willingness to ignore or confound the prejudices of someone very far away who knows very little of the reality there, and nothing at all of their lives or themselves. However there is nothing remarkable in that. The only remarkable thing here is the silly conviction behind your prejudgments of the situation and the degree to which you arrogantly proclaim absolute knowledge of the truth, when in fact you know very little.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  2  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 06:58 pm
@spendius,
I'm not sure I'm following your point.

Do you find discussion about what is happening in Egypt and what might happen unseemly?
hawkeye10
 
  3  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 06:59 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Quote:
No, it isn't unfair. It's the absolute truth. These folks are basically saying, 'well, we don't care if Mubarak is a vile, torturous quasi-dictator - as long as we can go back to making money
America provides $1.5 billion in direct aid, but I think it is the Eurpeans for the most part who are making the money there, and who will lose their shirts if this goes the wrong way

Quote:
Egypt
Egypt is a major trading partner for the EU in the Southern Mediterranean region. It is part of the Euromed process for creating a free trade area of the Mediterranean.

The EU and Egypt have made significant progress in freeing up trade between them. Since the entry into force of the EU-Egypt Association Agreement in 2004, half of the EU industrial exports to Egypt has already been liberalised and special preferential treatment for agriculture has significantly boosted agricultural trade. Subsequent negotiations (concluded in 2009) have furthered the liberalisation of agricultural, processed agricultural and fisheries products, and ongoing negotiations aim at improving conditions for services trade and for companies seeking to establish businesses in both markets. An agreement on the establishing of a dispute settlement mechanism has been initialed in April 2010.


Trade between the EU and Egypt has risen substantially after the entry into force of the EU-Egypt Association Agreement in 2004
Trade in goods
■EU goods exports to Egypt 2009: €12.6 billion
■EU goods imports from Egypt 2009: €6 billion
In 2008 EU-Egypt trade increased significantly, accounting for € 20.66 billion. Egypt’s exports to the EU rose by 13.1% and EU exports to Egypt in the same period increased by 22.2%. In 2009, in account of the impact of the global crisis, the trend reversed in comparison to 2008 and EU imports from Egypt decreased by 26%, while exports by 0.9%. Global trade decreased by almost 10% (€18.6 bn).In 2009, EU imports from Egypt were dominated by energy (54.5%), followed by textiles and clothes (10.5.1%). EU exports to Egypt consisted mainly of machinery (41.4%) and chemicals (14.3%). The EU remains the first trading partner with 33% of total trade volume share that, in 2009, amount to € 18.7 billion.

Trade in services
■EU exports of services to Egypt 2008: €3.3 billion
■EU imports of services from Egypt 2008: €6.5 billion
Foreign Direct Investment
In 2008 EU direct investment in Egypt (stocks) amount to €20.2 billion, almost 40% more than 2007 (€12.3 bn), out of the EU total stock of €43.3 billion in the Maghreb and Mashrek area.

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/creating-opportunities/bilateral-relations/countries/egypt/

The Americans claim to be the biggest trading partner, but the numbers show that the EU is far bigger, so that must be a bit of deception using only nation states as the definition for partner

http://www.amcham-egypt.org/BSAC/EgyUSprof10.pdf
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 07:28 pm
@hawkeye10,
hawk, That's important info, because we still haven't heard for the Europeans on this crisis. What gives?
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 07:29 pm
1:00am: The US is working on a deal with the Egyptian government for Mubarak to resign immediately in favour of a three-man junta, according to the New York Times in a news item just posted:

The Obama administration is discussing with Egyptian officials a proposal for President Hosni Mubarak to resign immediately, turning over power to a transitional government headed by Vice President Omar Suleiman with the support of the Egyptian military, administration officials and Arab diplomats said Thursday.

Even though Mr Mubarak has balked, so far, at leaving now, officials from both governments are continuing talks about a plan in which, Mr Suleiman, backed by Sami Enan, chief of the Egyptian armed forces, and Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi, the Defense Minister, would immediately begin a process of constitutional reform.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 07:29 pm
@cicerone imposter,
There have been a number of posts re the European/international response.
0 Replies
 
 

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