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Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

 
 
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 03:32 pm
@hawkeye10,
huh? Not sure why that's addressed to me.

I see it as a potential influence on the military. Beyond that, I think tomorrow is going to a blood bath. I truly hope I'm wrong.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 03:33 pm
@JPB,
I have the same gut feeling; it's a blood-bath or Mubarak wins the day.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 03:35 pm
@JPB,
I agree that it looks very, very dangerous now. I think this is at the tipping point, such as was seen in Moscow in 1991. If the army continues to follow it's commanders orders, it probably will be a bloodbath. If the common foot soldier balks at firing at their own people, then it could become a revolution accomplie.
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 03:39 pm
@Setanta,
Yeah, JPB and Set. Friday could well be the pivotal day with a lot riding on what the military does.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 03:45 pm
@realjohnboy,
Which is why a strong statement from Leahy that $1.5b in aid to the military can easily be shut off may have an influence.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 03:51 pm
@JPB,
Yeah, I agree.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 03:55 pm
There is a 7 hour time difference between Cairo and the American U.S. So it is midnight there now. I haven't quite figured GMT. I think it is +2 for Cairo and -5 for me.
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 03:57 pm
Loud official outcry on the treatment of journalists. Hillary made a statement, the US military says they're watching how the military is behaving, Gibbs says the media must be allowed to report what's happening.

Gibbs: I want to say a word for a second on the systematic targeting of journalists in Egypt. This also is completely and totally unacceptable. Any journalist that has been detained should be released immediately.

I think we need to be clear that the world is watching the actions that are taking place right now in Egypt. And I'll reiterate again that the actions of targeting journalists, that is unacceptable, and that those journalists should be, if they are detained, released immediately. I know the President has been briefed on this as part of the daily briefing this morning.

Pentagon: The US military is starting to get more involved, with the Pentagon announcing that officials are gathering details on the attacks on journalists in Egypt. It held back from censuring the hands-off stance of the Egyptian armed forces.

"To date, we have seen them act professionally and with restraint. Again, it's a very fluid situation so we are watching every single day," said Pentagon spokesman Colonel Dave Lapan.

Hillary spoke about the treatment of the media and added, "I urge the government and a broad and credible representation of Egypt's opposition, civil society and political factions to begin immediately serious negotiations on a peaceful and orderly transition."
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 04:08 pm
@JPB,
Quote:
Loud official outcry on the treatment of journalists. Hillary made a statement, the US military says they're watching how the military is behaving, Gibbs says the media must be allowed to report what's happening
We always watch, we always talk, it is the doing that is lacking....not that he have the ability to do anything here of course. I am sure that Mubarak and the military are listening patiently to the concerns of the Americans, and then promply putting us out of their minds. We lack relevancy.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 04:12 pm
@realjohnboy,
I think that's right, rjb.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 04:16 pm
9.54pm GMT: More on the raid on the Hisham Mubarak law centre, mentioned below. Among those taken away by members of the police and army is Human Rights Watch researcher Daniel Williams.

"Human Rights Watch is currently unaware of the whereabouts of those who were detained," the organisation said in a statement, adding:

Williams's detention is part of a clear campaign against independent eyewitnesses of the violence in Egypt, including journalists and civil society activists. Human Rights Watch condemned the crackdown and called on the Egyptian government to release those detained immediately.
0 Replies
 
hingehead
 
  3  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 04:23 pm
Libyans are just as hungry as Tunisians
We Arabs have been trapped between dictators and their friends in the west, but Tunisians have shown us a way out

Hisham Matar
guardian.co.uk, Friday 21 January 2011 20.30 GMT
Source...

In the 1970s, the young Libyan leader, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi was the most impatient exponent of Arab unity. In 1973, he flew to Tunisia in order to convince his next-door neighbour to form a union with Libya. What happened during that summit says a lot about why Tunisia is the first Arab nation to overthrow a dictator through peaceful mass protest.

The first president of Tunisia, Habib Bourguiba, 70 years old by then, sat at a simple table with a microphone in front of him and a small glass of water to one side. He wore a French suit, his grey hair was slicked back, and he had on a pair of square dark glasses. He looked like Jorge Luis Borges. But, unlike the Argentinian author, Bourguiba wasn't a gifted orator. As a public speaker, the Sorbonne graduate lacked tact and was given to excitement. "What is the point of uniting 1.5 million Libyans with 5 million Tunisians?" he asked, mockingly.

It became clear, as Bourguiba went on, that he had two objectives in mind: to deflate and mildly humiliate the young Nasserist Libyan, and to outline his vision of the Arab world. Bourguiba's thesis was as simple as it was poignant: for the Arab people to build secure states and societies, they ought to concern themselves not with Arab unity, but with education and development.

Sadly, his first motive reduced the credibility of his second. He stated his opinion, that Tunisia was socially and politically superior to its north African neighbour, with enthusiasm and, one couldn't help but detect, delight.

As the Tunisian crowd cheered, the Libyan leader sat to one side looking unimpressed. Gaddafi was only 31. He had all the confidence and swagger of a young man at the height of his powers. He sat in his military uniform, his shaven chin pointing up. Every now and then he would laugh or yawn theatrically.

There was little doubt as to what Gaddafi made of the older man's remarks. As there was little doubt, among Arab observers and commentators, that Bourguiba, the seasoned politician, knew perfectly well what he was doing – that this was the best way to offend his hot-blooded guest. This fact, as well as the Tunisian's lack of enthusiasm for Arab unity, served to distract many Arabs from the valuable and pertinent recommendations the Tunisian president was offering.

This was a heady time. The bitter taste of 1967 was still in the mouth. Every Arab state had a European ex-colonial power breathing down its neck. Yet winning independence was within living memory, and confidence was still high. In the middle of it all there were these two north African men, born more than 30 years apart, both dictatorial, both with prisons full of dissidents, both with egos the size of their two countries combined, and each pointing towards a different path. Bourguiba favoured institutions and a robust bureaucracy, while Gaddafi distrusted institutions and sought to dismantle every union and club.

One of the main reasons Tunisians were able to rid themselves of Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali – who was bequeathed to them by Bourguiba – was less because of the claim, endlessly repeated in the western media, that Tunisia is more European in its thinking than its neighbours, and more because of the extent to which Tunisian civil society and state bureaucracy have been allowed to develop since independence.

We Libyans are just as hungry for a just and accountable government as our Tunisian brothers and sisters. The lack of resilient institutions will make our task more difficult. However, a worried Gaddafi was the first Arab leader to give an address on television about the events in Tunisia. He obviously disapproves, but also hopes to quell the protests that have started in some Libyan towns and cities.

I am, by instinct, wary of revolutions. The gathering of the masses fills me with trepidation. But seeing the Tunisian crowds in Habib Bourguiba Avenue, the familiar street throbbing like a hot vein, was one of the most glorious things I have seen in all of my 40 years. From before I was born, we Arabs have been caught between two forces that, seemingly, cannot be defeated: our ruthless dictators, who oppress and humiliate us, and the cynical western powers, who would rather see us ruled by criminals loyal to them than have democratically elected leaders accountable to us. We have been sliding towards the dark conclusion that we will forever remain trapped between these two beasts. The men and women of Tunisia took us back from the brink of that precipice.
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  3  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 04:25 pm
This is all getting a trifle patronising. Egypt is a great and noble nation of 90 million people in pretty terrible trouble. It is not a vehicle for every jumped-up armchair strategist to posture his or her global reach on.

Here in the UK Sky 9.oopm News have gone from four days of blanket coverage, with long periods without adverts, to a 7 minute item consisting of videos which were shown at 2.00pm. Then the conviction of a gang of jewel thieves, an EU Finance ministers meeting taking place tomorrow and the snowstorm in the US. A dramatic change in emphasis.

A "live" interview was broadcast on the phone from their chief correspondent who repeated what we already knew and he was not asked whether he was being restricted. There have been no pictures after sunset which is about 5 hours ago. Mrs Clinton was shown giving the Egyptian top brass a finger wagging.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 04:28 pm
From the Telegraph

21:35 Dan Nolan, UAE correspondent for Al-Jazeera, writes emotively about his experience sleeping out in Tahrir Square on Wednesday night:

"Got stranded in Tahrir Square last nite & had to sleep the night. Pretty terrifying night, protestors gave shelter as they defended all nite.

"Struggle for freedom is etched in their faces. Last nite u could also see fear - maybe the taste of freedom on tue is all they're gonna get?

"Protestors w me were pharmacists, lecturers & students- nicest people u'd ever meet. One cried because I had to see his nation like this"
failures art
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 04:30 pm
@JPB,
JPB wrote:
Struggle for freedom is etched in their faces. Last nite u could also see fear - maybe the taste of freedom on tue is all they're gonna get?


moving.

A
R
T
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 04:31 pm
@JPB,
21:44 Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary General, has condemned the attacks on human rights activists and journalists in Egypt as "outrageous and totally unacceptable" and called for them to "stop now", according to reports.

Speaking in Berlin after talks with German President Christian Wulff, he said:

"The president and I share a particular concern about the intimidations and the restrictions on international media in Cairo. Let me be totally clear: this is outrageous and totally unacceptable, it must stop now.
0 Replies
 
JTT
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 04:37 pm
@JPB,
Quote:
Senator Patrick Leahy, the chairman of the panel that controls foreign aid, said he's prepared to stop all U.S. financial assistance to Egypt – which topped $1.5 billion last year – unless Mubarak steps aside immediately and allows a transitional government to take over.


He's gotten some $45 billion over the last 30 years. He's 83. Do you think he's gonna sweat over the next $1.5 billion that doesn't happen to make it?
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 04:40 pm
@spendius,
So, we should leave it to the big kids, eh? I disagree. If a couple million people can put their lives at risk to try to get some control over the structure of their government, the least we can do is be interested and engaged.
JPB
 
  3  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 04:41 pm
@JTT,
keep reading... you'll get to where I think this may have some impact/influence.
0 Replies
 
JTT
 
  0  
Reply Thu 3 Feb, 2011 04:45 pm
@JPB,
Quote:
Gibbs says the media must be allowed to report what's happening.

Gibbs: I want to say a word for a second on the systematic targeting of journalists in Egypt. This also is completely and totally unacceptable. Any journalist that has been detained should be released immediately.



He went on to say, privately,

You idiots. If you want to control the press and what they say simply embed them like we do. Must I explain everything? Wasn't that covered, along with proper torture procedures in your classes at WestPoint and the School of Assassins, I mean School of the Americas?
0 Replies
 
 

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