Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

Buying off the military .


The second step was Mubarak's decision to lay the ground for power sharing with the military.

The new vice president, Omar Suleiman, is not only a former general but has also spent decades monitoring the officer corps.

The prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq, is a former head of the air force - a traditionally powerful branch of Egypt's armed forces from which Mr Mubarak himself emerged.

Far from being a cabinet of desperation, Mubarak is practising exemplary 'military clientelism' - buying off the only group who can effect a coup.

For as long as there is no tank commander in Cairo willing to seize a centre of power, there are no means for the activists to translate their historic revolutionary energy into a truly decisive blow against the regime.

As their numbers shrink at the news of Mr Mubarak's concessions and their homes go undefended, they will struggle to persuade the military to take such a risk.

The army may well "facilitate" protests, but - in the absence of a critical mass of army defections - what it will not do is facilitate a violent capture of the presidential palace.

If Mr Mubarak has played his cards well, that defection will never come

Those agitating for escalation ought to recall the anti-Saddam uprisings of 1991 by Kurds and others, in which the US first encouraged and then shied away from supporting resistance.

The result was massacres under the eyes of the international community.

Warden Message 9: February 3, 2011

U.S. Embassy Cairo
The U.S. Embassy advises that there will be no U.S. government evacuation flights on Friday, February 4. There will be U.S. Embassy personnel at the airport to assist U.S. citizens departing on commercial flights. We plan to continue evacuation efforts on Saturday, February 5 on a very limited basis in view of the availability of commercial flights and decreased demand for U.S. government evacuation flights. Additional U.S. government flights after Saturday are extremely unlikely.

All remaining U.S. citizens who wish to depart Egypt on a U.S. government flight and who are able to do so should proceed to Terminal 1, Hall 4 (Hajj Hall) as soon as possible on Saturday, February 5. Do not wait for a call from the U.S. Embassy. Further delay is not advisable.

This assistance will be provided on a reimbursable basis, as required by U.S. law. U.S. citizens who travel on US government – arranged transport will be expected to make their own onward travel plans from safehaven locations in Europe. Flights to evacuation points began departing Egypt on Monday, January 31.

The welfare and safety of U.S. citizens in Egypt remains one of State Department’s top priorities. Approximately 2,000 U.S citizens and their family members have been evacuated from Egypt in an operation that began on Monday, January 31.

Immediate family members (spouses and children) who are not U.S. citizens must be documented for entry into the safehaven country and/or U.S., if that is your final destination. All U.S. citizen travelers and their spouses and children, are required to have valid travel documents. The U.S. Embassy in Cairo will assist U.S. citizens with travel documents. U.S. citizens who do not hold a valid U.S. passport or visa and are interested in departing Egypt via USG-chartered transportation should contact the US Department of State and Embassy Cairo by sending an email to [email protected] or by calling 1-202-501-4444.

In the event of demonstrations, U.S. citizens in Egypt should remain in their residences or hotels until the demonstrations subside. Security forces may block off the area around the U.S. Embassy during demonstrations, and U.S. citizens should not attempt to come to the U.S. Embassy or the Tahrir Square area during that time. Demonstrations have degenerated on several occasions into violent clashes between police and protesters, resulting in injuries and extensive property damage. While demonstrations have not been directed toward Westerners, U.S. citizens are urged to remain alert to local security developments and to be vigilant regarding their personal security. The U.S. Department of State strongly urges U.S. citizens to avoid all demonstrations, as even peaceful ones can quickly become unruly and a foreigner could become a target of harassment or worse. If caught unexpectedly near a demonstration, U.S. citizens should obey instructions from police and leave the area as quickly as possible. U.S. citizens resident in Egypt should monitor local news broadcasts and U.S. citizen visitors should ask tour guides and hotel officials about any planned demonstrations in the locations they plan to visit. U.S. citizens should carry identification and a cell phone that works in Egypt.

The implication is that the military is expected to choose Mubarak over the people, that the rebellion will be crushed, and they dont want international witnesses nor cameras around when they do it.

No need to send the link of Bush's video. Thanks.

But there are two differences between Bush and Lash on this matter.
The first is that Lash made an ambivalent irony, while Bush made a farce.
The second is way more important. It's called power.

In any case, I prefer a farce than no humor at all.
Lack of humor reminds me of political comissars.

Most people would resist being seen doing their dirty washing in public for the entertainment of the TV audiences.

Al jazeera English live-stream here

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

Egypt's attorney-general has issued a travel ban on several former ministers and a prominent member of the ruling party and frozen their bank accounts, state news agency MENA has said.

Those banned from leaving the country are Habib al-Adly, the ex- interior minister, Ahmed el-Maghrabi, the former housing minister, and Zuhair Garana, the former tourism minister.

Ahmed Ezz, a wealthy member of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) who resigned from the party after protests against President Hosni Mubarak broke out last week, was also among those banned from leaving the country.

The statement said other officials were also under the ban which would last "until national security is restored and the authorities and monitoring bodies have undergone their investigations".

'Interrogation'

They are "banned from travelling abroad while their bank accounts have been frozen until security is reinstated, and until investigative authorities conduct probes to establish who was criminally and administratively responsible for all those events," MENA quoted Abdel Meguid Mahmud as saying.

An Al Jazeera correspondent, reporting from Egypt, said al-Adly is also being interrogated for his decision to order police off the streets, and whether any security forces were involved in clashes between pro-democracy protesters and Mubarak loyalists that are continuing to rage in Cairo.

"I think others who are maybe in similar positions to Hosni Mubarak, the Egyptian president, are learning from this experience and perhaps the counter-productive thing to do is to crack down on protests," he said.

"If he doesn't leave, there will not be foreign aid; I mean, it's as simple as that," Leahy, a Vermont Democrat, told Bloomberg Television in an interview yesterday. US money "will not go to the Mubarak administration," Leahy said, adding, "that's a pipeline that can easily be turned off."