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Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

 
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 07:26 am
@msolga,
msolga wrote:

Quote:
We will see, the fact that its gotten this far is still amazing to me.

Me, too!
I am amazed & so full of admiration at the courage that these people have shown, against the odds.

And what are they demanding? Nothing much more than the right to live their lives free of crippling oppression ... and to have improvements in their living conditions ... some opportunities in life.
Not exactly radical demands. .


Those are the universal demands of revolutionaries. The same occurred in France in 1789 - the systematic extermination of "aristos" and political enemies started later. The same pattern followed in Russia and Iran. Sappy expressions from local spectators don't usually count for much in the minds and calculations of the core leaders of the contending parties - who are often invisible at the early stages.

Events today and yesterday also suggest that we may not have yet seen the real intent of Mubarak's supporters or even the Army.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 07:31 am
If the army stands by why Mubarak supporters attack the mob, then the message will be clear that the army thinks this has gone far enough.
revelette
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 07:37 am
Obama pushes Mubarak for faster change

Quote:
Mubarak's concession not to seek office again, until recently nearly unthinkable, was angrily rejected by throngs of protesters in Cairo who are fed up with poverty and corruption and want Mubarak to step down immediately. They have vowed to stay in the streets until he does.

It also did not appear to satisfy Obama. After days of scrambling in the White House over how to react to the enormous and unanticipated protest movement enveloping America's top Arab ally, the president came down unmistakably on the side of the demonstrators, though he stopped well short of echoing their demand for Mubarak's immediate resignation.

After speaking to Mubarak on the phone for half an hour, the president delivered brief remarks in which he offered high praise for the protesters and the Egyptian army, which apparently has sided with the protesters. But Obama did not welcome or even directly mention Mubarak's announcement that he would not stand for re-election.

"It is not the role of any other country to determine Egypt's leaders. Only the Egyptian people can do that," Obama said. "What is clear — and what I indicated tonight to President Mubarak — is my belief that an orderly transition must be meaningful, it must be peaceful, and it must begin now."

Obama had no kind words for Mubarak, though his Egypt has been critical to securing America's interests in the Middle East, including access to oil transport through the Suez Canal and a peace treaty with Israel under Mubarak's predecessor, Anwar Sadat.

"He recognizes that the status quo is not sustainable and that a change must take place," Obama said, before declaring that that change must begin immediately, include opposition parties and "lead to elections that are free and fair. And it should result in a government that's not only grounded in democratic principles, but is also responsive to the aspirations of the Egyptian people."

An administration official said Obama delivered the same message to Mubarak in their "direct and frank" phone call. Obama "said it was clear how much he loves his country, and how difficult this is for him. President Obama also explained to him that an orderly transition can't be prolonged — it must begin now," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the private conversation.

Behind the scenes, the White House had attempted to nudge Mubarak to the exits over the past 48 hours, dispatching former U.S. ambassador to Egypt Frank Wisner as a special envoy to deliver a message to him: The U.S. saw Mubarak's tenure at an end, didn't want him to seek re-election and wanted him to prepare an orderly transition to real democracy. But when he addressed the public Tuesday, Mubarak did not offer the inclusive transition the U.S. seeks, instead saying that he himself would carry out the transfer of power.

That left little question that the protests would continue, and with them the maneuvering between Washington, Cairo and other capitals over the way forward.

"There will be difficult days ahead. Many questions about Egypt's future remain unanswered. But I am confident that the people of Egypt will find those answers," Obama said, appealing to the army, a well-respected institution in Egypt, to continue to allow peaceful protests to go forward.

"To the people of Egypt, particularly the young people of Egypt, I want to be clear: We hear your voices," Obama said. "I have an unyielding belief that you will determine your own destiny and seize the promise of a better future." He said they've shown "passion and dignity" that's "been an inspiration to people around the world."


It looks like setanta may have been right, in the end, it don't matter what the US does, it is what the military does. Shame. I still hope the wishes get filled up rather than the spit in the end.
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 07:42 am
@Setanta,
Quote:
At the scene:
Ian Pannell, BBC News, Cairo

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/51067000/jpg/_51067928_51066756.jpg

We're in the middle of a very fluid situation - this is entirely dangerous, entirely provocative. Thousands of pro-Mubarak forces are now surging into Tahrir Square.

There was a cordon set up by the anti-Mubarak protesters to try and hold them back. The army were in the middle. They didn't take sides.

And basically there were too many of them. So they are now surging forward.

We've just seen one man being attacked - being kicked and punched and hit with a stick. And we've also seen protesters pulling down signs that are against President Mubarak.

There's a lot of anger on the streets at the moment, a lot of argument, fists are flying. And who knows where this will end.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12345656
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 07:47 am
@revelette,
Quote:
Mubarak's concession not to seek office again, until recently nearly unthinkable, was angrily rejected by throngs of protesters in Cairo who are fed up with poverty and corruption and want Mubarak to step down immediately. They have vowed to stay in the streets until he does.
This may have been acceptable last week. Too late now. The Muslim Brotherhood loves this, they can show "Stability" when the whole society breaks down, thus defeating what the younger people want.

The cynical v the naive.
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 07:59 am
A more detailed report:

Quote:
Major violence breaks out in Cairo square
Updated 19 minutes ago
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/201102/r712049_5577508.jpg
Tahrir Square has been the epicentre of opposition demonstrations now in their ninth day. (Reuters: Yannis Behrakis )

Supporters of embattled Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak have clashed violently with opposition protesters after marching into an anti-regime rally in Tahrir Square in central Cairo.

Protesters from both sides threw stones at each other in the divided square, the epicentre of opposition demonstrations now in their ninth day.

Supporters of the president also charged anti-regime protesters on horses and camels before being surrounded and dragged from their animals.

Early reports say at least 10 people have been injured in the clashes.

"The pro-Mubarak NDP (National Democratic Party) and the secret police dressed in plain clothes, they invaded the place to get rid of the revolt," protester Mohammed Zomor said.

The clashes were centred in front of the world famous Egyptian Museum.

Soldiers surrounding the square took cover from the projectiles and the windows of at least one army truck were broken. Some troops stood on tanks and appealed for calm but did not otherwise intervene.

Several groups were involved in fist fights and some were using clubs.

The opposition said in a statement that plain-clothes policemen stormed the square.

"Members of security forces dressed in plain clothes and a number of thugs have stormed Tahrir Square," three opposition groups said in a statement.

The clashes came just hours after the military called on people to return home to allow a return to normality, but activists said a major protest planned for Friday would go ahead.

The army issued its call after Mr Mubarak addressed the nation in a late-night speech, pledging he would not run for re-election in September after three decades of rule and saying he would seek to ease the conditions for presidential candidacy.

But he did not offer to step down immediately, the key demand of protesters who have flooded the streets of Egypt's cities.

A military spokesman said "the army calls on protesters to go home to restore security and stability in the street".

That call set the stage for a potential confrontation with protesters, who had been buoyed by a promise from the military that it regarded the protesters grievances as "legitimate" and would not open fire.

'Departure day'

Demonstrators said they would proceed with plans for a massive protest on Friday, their designated "departure day" for Mr Mubarak.

"We will demonstrate on Friday, the 'Friday of Departure', and we expect more than one million people to take to the streets across all of Egypt to demand the fall of the regime," opposition activist Iman Hassan said.

Ahead of the clashes, supporters of the president had staged a number of rallies around Cairo, saying Mr Mubarak represented stability amid growing insecurity, and calling those who want his departure "traitors".

"Yes to Mubarak, to protect stability," read one banner in a crowd of 500 gathered near state television headquarters, about one kilometre from Tahrir Square.

A witness said organisers were paying people 100 Egyptian pounds ($17) to take part in the pro-Mubarak rally.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/02/3128465.htm
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  0  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 08:02 am
@farmerman,
What would we do without fm's definitive analysis?

Isn't it more significant that they all look well fed and that there few ladies where it's hottest? Maybe ladies only come to the fore once they are sure of it being safe to do so. They should be grateful for us men having provided them with such comforts. Drawing room feminism reaching the lower orders. Top down permeation so to say.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  3  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 08:13 am
I suspect Mubarak has cut a deal with the army command. They're willing to step aside while his bully boys attack the mob. CBC reported that there were women and children in the crowd, and when asked, the women said they were going to stay there with their children until they had acheived their goals. This is going to get ugly. This is no longer a bloodless revolution.
revelette
 
  2  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 08:19 am
@Setanta,
HELP! HELP! GUNFIRE IN TAHRIR SQUARE - MUBARAK'S SECURITY POLICE ARE MOBILIZING FOR A MASSACRE!

Its from a live tweet in Cario

http://twitter.com/search?q=%23Cairo

My computer is too slow to keep up with them.
0 Replies
 
revelette
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 08:23 am
On the link I left above, one person asked, "where is the world?" Surely the western nations won't stand by and let a slaughter take place?
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 08:39 am
@revelette,
We shall see what their immediate neighbors among the European powers do about this trouble in their neighborhood. If the Bosnia precedent is applicable the answer will be - not much. They are much better in the role of critics than in the arena itself.

I believe the near term behavior of the government of Turkey may be particularly illustrative. Could we be witnessing the beginnings of the reassembly of the former westewrn Islamic empire?
revelette
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 08:53 am
If we have it in our capability to help keep a massacre from taking place, I don't' think we should be asking, "well, what about other people." Western leaders are always going on about freedom and democracy and now when people try to exercise it, our job is not to ask who else is going to help to keep them from getting killed or hurt.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 09:07 am
@revelette,
That of course was part of the motivation for our intervention in Iraq.
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 09:18 am
@georgeob1,
What exactly did you mean, George, with your remark re Turkey? Do you have any different information to what is published ("Turkey is a model role for democracy in the Middle East" and similar by Turkish politicians)?
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 09:21 am
@georgeob1,
Quote:
We shall see what their immediate neighbors among the European powers do about this trouble in their neighborhood. If the Bosnia precedent is applicable the answer will be - not much. They are much better in the role of critics than in the arena itself.


The US was invited into the arena in 1956 George and it declined. Now it's headless chicken time and talking yourself up.

The idea of former Western Islamic empires coming back into fashion is too ridiculous to give a moment's thought to.
0 Replies
 
revelette
 
  2  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 09:38 am
@georgeob1,
Don't even try to bring the Iraq debate into this and try and equate and justify our invasion of Iraq with what happening in Egypt now. The two are not even apples and oranges the situations are so different.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 09:44 am
@Ceili,
Then I misunderstood your post.

I read it to mean that the Egyptian made both points and that they were connected.

I'm sure the vast number of Egyptians (if not all) know more about their country than do I, but that would be making an assumption about what an entire group of people know, and I've already been sorely chastised for that. In any case, it doesn't make the Egyptian you cited omniscient as to all things Egyptian.

Never-the-less, I agreed with his comment that the MD is the strongest of the weakest political factions. What I don't agree with is his conclusion that because it is weak in comparison to the Mubarak regime that it can't dominate Egyptian politics if and when that regime is deposed. Unless he has lived through similar regime changes in Egypt during which the MB was the strongest of the weakest factions and still failed to come out on top, his being an Egyptian doesn't matter in this regard. I'm sure we could have found an Afghani or two in 1994 who didn't think the Taliban had a chance of running their country, or a couple of Americans who didn't think the Republicans would take the House in 2010.

I would not be so quick to take my word about Texas over an Egyptian's (whether or not he sits in an armchair and watches FOX). I certainly don't know everything there is to know about Texas and I could easily draw the wrong conclusion about how things I do know about will play out.

As for Egyptians not being Arabs. If you do some research you may find that there are and have been Egyptians who are perfectly happy with being considered Arabs.

Maybe its because they like the way Arabs thinks and act.
Walter Hinteler
 
  -1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 09:50 am
@Finn dAbuzz,
Finn dAbuzz wrote:

Maybe its because they like the way Arabs thinks and act.


And 'Arabs' exactly think and act ... how?

[I mean, one of our local Catholic priests is an 'Arab'. As are two of our physicians we (the missus) frequently go to.
They've as different thinking and acting like my wife and I have.]
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 09:53 am
@farmerman,
farmerman wrote:

Quote:
Mubarak's concession not to seek office again, until recently nearly unthinkable, was angrily rejected by throngs of protesters in Cairo who are fed up with poverty and corruption and want Mubarak to step down immediately. They have vowed to stay in the streets until he does.
This may have been acceptable last week. Too late now. The Muslim Brotherhood loves this, they can show "Stability" when the whole society breaks down, thus defeating what the younger people want.

The cynical v the naive.


Precisely.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 09:54 am
@Walter Hinteler,
You've obviously missed a certain recent exchange.

It's not worth trying to explain it to you.
 

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