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Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

 
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 10:04 am
@Finn dAbuzz,
I know, I know: I'm not only a stupid foreigner but brainless as well.

Gratias ago!
Finn dAbuzz
 
  2  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 10:23 am
The European leaders all seem to be taking the same tack as the US



It seems silly for the press to call the paid thugs in Cairo "pro-Mubarak demonstraters," but I suppose they have to until there is some proof that they are (in the main) not legitimate citizen supporters of Mubarak.

The military is walking a thin line, but it makes sense from their perspective.

I think most of us agree that they are only concerned about their own interests, and are willing to use Mubarak and the people in any way that will support theose interests.

While they don't seem to be trying to put a halt to the pro-Mubarak force's aggression, they have taken some minor steps to keep the melee at a dull roar.

I don't think we will see them take concrete action unless and until the current clashes appear to be totally out of control. At that point they can step in with force simply to "restore order," without taking sides.

The military needs time, and they can't have these massive demonstrations shutting down Cairo while they decide on a course of action, and they can't have a huge mob settled in the central city instantly passing judgment on each and every announced plan for change. They need to get the people back in their houses or back to work.

It appears that it will take increased violence to accomplish that goal.

Ironic that, if and when, the military makes its move the thugs paid 50 pounds to throw rocks in support of Mubarak are just as likely to have their heads cracked open as any student demonstrator. Do you think Mubarak knows he's throwing his "supporters" into a meat-grinder? Of course he does.

If and when this turns even uglier, Egyptians can count on condemnations from the rest of the world, but I'm afraid that's all.

But who knows?

Maybe the younger officers will join with the demonstrators and there will be a full scale revolution, leading to Cairo's Continental Congress of 2011.
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 10:24 am
@Setanta,
Incredibly patient and very clear and reliable redirection. You deserve a medal.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 10:26 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Not at all Walter

If you really want to understand why I wrote that comment about Arabs, go back and read an exchange I had with Setanta.

Frankly, I think it would be a waste of your time, but that's up to you.

Suffice it to say that I don't think all Arabs think and act alike.

0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 10:31 am
Mob gets dangerous.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110202/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_egypt

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thecutline/20110202/bs_yblog_thecutline/egypt-media-watch-cnns-cooper-attacked-internet-returnsAnderson Cooper beaten up.

Looks very bad now.

Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 10:37 am
@Lash,
I don't particularly like him but he's got guts for reporting from there --- or he's arrogant and foolish.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 10:54 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Walter Hinteler wrote:

What exactly did you mean, George, with your remark re Turkey? Do you have any different information to what is published ("Turkey is a model role for democracy in the Middle East" and similar by Turkish politicians)?
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 11:02 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Walter Hinteler wrote:

What exactly did you mean, George, with your remark re Turkey? Do you have any different information to what is published ("Turkey is a model role for democracy in the Middle East" and similar by Turkish politicians)?


Turkey isn't so much a model as to motivate the major EU powers, Germany notably included, to accept its application for EU membership. It appears to me that both the EU and Turkey have made the implicit decision to drop serious consideration of assimilation and membership.

Turkey's PM Erdogan has fairly clearly diminished the secular heritage of the Ataturk legacy and aligned Turkey - if so far only gently - with the broader Islamic movement, particularly in terms of relations with Syria, Jordan, Iraq and elements of the Palestinian movement.

The political unrest we have seen first in Tunisia and now in Egypt involves significant former components of the Ottoman Empire. Erdogan has today joined the calls urging Mubarak to resign. Are there any underlying unifying elements at work here? I am merely speculating about what may be afoot.
Ceili
 
  0  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 11:09 am
@georgeob1,
"That of course was part of the motivation for our intervention in Iraq. "

ha ha ha hah ah

Now that is funny...
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 11:14 am
@Ceili,
Oh ? And what then is your view?
Ceili
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 11:15 am
I think if one want an example of Set has said, you only have to look to Russia.
The KGB allowed Democracy to occur, but they never really did give up power. I don't think the military in Egypt will either, but the people will get some shiny new faces which will placate them for a few more decades, unless a couple of bombs get dropped and we all know those Islamists have a few of those tucked away for a rainy day, eh?
0 Replies
 
Ceili
 
  2  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 11:16 am
@georgeob1,
Well, I supposed if you want to re-write history we all should be allowed to. Seriously, you are now going to say the US went into Iraq on shining horses to protect the citizenship from a civil war? Puh leaze... The USA, protecting the people of the world from Massacres.. what next George? ha ha ha
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 11:36 am
@georgeob1,
Interesting speculation.

How do you imagine it would play out?

I think it would need to be built on a religious foundation, because there are no ethnic ties between Egyptians and Turks and the former's experience under the Ottoman Empire didn't exactly amount to a Golden Age.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 11:40 am
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

That of course was part of the motivation for our intervention in Iraq.


Bullshit and you know it. Laughable Laughing

Cycloptichorn
JTT
 
  2  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 12:06 pm
@georgeob1,
It's good to see others call out you liars, Gob. Way more people should do the same.

Let me add my voice. You are a bald faced liar and what's so bad about you is that you know and practice precisely that.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 12:37 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Finn dAbuzz wrote:

Interesting speculation.

How do you imagine it would play out?

I think it would need to be built on a religious foundation, because there are no ethnic ties between Egyptians and Turks and the former's experience under the Ottoman Empire didn't exactly amount to a Golden Age.


I don't know. It is only speculation based on what Erdogan appears to be doing. If, as appears to be generally supposed here, we are looking at the emergence of a new generational force in Tunis, Egypt and perhaps other Muslim states, then the significance of Erdogan's very obvious realignment of Turkey's internal and external affairs may take on new meaning.

I'm not so sure that we really are seeing something new, or even that the result will involve significan poliotical change in Egypt (other than a change of faces). Still it is interesting to speculate on what might be Erdogan's motives.
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Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 12:55 pm
George, what the hell are you on about? You're delusional. When the Turks ruled the middle east, everybody, but everybody hated them. They are no leadership figure for the nations of the middle east. You been smokin' that whacky weed again?
failures art
 
  2  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 01:13 pm
I can't remember who said it a few pages back but something to the effect of 60% of the population in Egypt is under 30. Someone said something about youth and their naivety (read: the Egyptians are young and naive in their desires).

Isn't this kind of a culturally skewed analysis on maturity? Perhaps I'd go for 30 being young and naive in the comfort of the west; in all our luxury and abundance. I think elsewhere in the world (maybe like under a 30 year autocratic rule) you might find that your 30 year olds are far less naive than the ones here in North America.

This isn't a kids revolt. Infantilizing the people as naive from such comfortable armchairs seems arrogant. I'm sure you'd find more naivety in many American 70 year olds than in some 12 year olds in some parts of the world.

A
R
T
0 Replies
 
failures art
 
  3  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 01:14 pm
http://i.imgur.com/xvRTw.jpg

A race?
R
T
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2011 02:20 pm
Watching live coverage of battle in Cairo

Lot of gunfire now and reporter on the ground says a tank is moving towards the crowd

Army may be making their move
0 Replies
 
 

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