Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

There were intell reports yesterday that he had taken money out of Libya and had departed Tripoli, but no one has a clue where he is headed. I figured he would want to die in a shoot-out, but maybe not.

you think, 'maybe he wanted to die in a shootout'?

Eni, the largest foreign oil producer in Libya, is not so optimistic. While it has sent some technicians back to the country to restart oil and natural gas operations, a company spokesman said restarting crude production could take a year or more.

Helima Croft, an analyst with Barclays Capital, compares Libya's political situation to that of Iraq in 2003, after Saddam Hussein was toppled by American-led forces.

"Everyone thought that Iraq would be stable overnight, but instead we had an insurgency," Croft says. "The oil was offline for years."

Judith Dwarkin, chief energy economist at ITG Investment Research, expects Libya to return to full production slowly over two years. In the meantime, she expects the price of West Texas crude to stay between $80 and $90 a barrel, barring an unforeseen supply disruption or a global economic collapse

[Updated at 8:22 p.m. ET, 2:22 a.m. Tuesday in Libya] More information about tonight's appearance in Tripoli of Saif al-Islam Gadhafi, who rebels claimed was captured on Sunday: He shook hands and greeted supporters while leaning outside of a car in his armored convoy on the streets of Tripoli.

Video showed Saif al-Islam, son of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi and a top official in his regime, flashing a victory sign to the crowd before his car sped away. He told reporters that supporters of his father Moammar Gadhafi's government "have broken the spines of those rats and those gangsters" - referring to rebel fighters who entered the capital over the weekend.

He said that on Tuesday the government's forces "will reassure the people that things are fine in Tripoli."

Asked about his being wanted by the International Criminal Court - which has issued a warrant for his arrest for his alleged participation in "crimes against humanity" - Saif al-Islam Gadhafi said, "To hell with the ICC."

More than a day earlier, National Transitional Council officials claimed he had been captured in Tripoli after rebels entered the capital.

The head of Libya's opposition National Transitional Council (NTC) on Monday announced the end of Gaddafi's decades-long rule after rebel fighters had swept into the heart of Tripoli on Sunday night, prompting scenes of jubiliation.

But the re-appearance of Saif, an influential figure who is wanted by the International Criminal Court, in front of a crowd of supporters and bouts of fierce fighting in Tripoli on Monday threw doubt on opposition claims that the city had fallen.

"This is our country. We live here and we die here and we are going to win," Saif said.

Television footage showed him waving his fists in the air, smiling and shaking hands with supporters, as well as holding his arms aloft with each hand making the "V" for victory sign.

Saif also spoke to foreign journalists at the Rixos Hotel, telling them that Tripoli was in government hands and that his father, whose whereabouts is still unknown, was safe.

"I am here to refute the lies," Saif al-Islam said, referring to reports of his arrest. "We broke the back of the rebels. It was a trap. We gave them a hard time, so we are winning."


Saif al-Islam makes public appearance in Tripoli

When asked if his father was safe in Tripoli, Saif responded: "Of course".

Saif said he did not care about an arrest warrant issued by the ICC in The Hague, seeking him, his father and Gaddafi's brother-in-law and intelligence chief, Abdullah al-Senussi, for crimes against humanity.

Luis Moreno-Ocampo, the ICC prosecutor, had earlier said the 39-year-old was arrested and in detention. But it is now unclear if he had ever been held by rebel forces.

Waheed Burshan, an NTC member, told Al Jazeera: "We had confirmation Saif al-Islam was arrested, but we have no idea how he escaped."

The NTC has remained quiet on Tuesday and has not made a public statement.

Al Jazeera's Jackie Rowland reporting from Benghazi said: "Now we are seeing accusations, doubts, and confusions.

"It is going to be interesting to see how the NTC explains this debacle and how it seeks to reinforce and strengthen these alliances and able the rebels to get to Tripoli itself."

13 min 19 sec ago - Libya

Al Jazeera correspondent in Libya:

"Rebels enter the first gate into Bab Al-Aziziyah camp. Gaddafi's forces have pulled back to Sirte and Al Jafra in the south".

31 min 19 sec ago - Libya

NATO has confirmed it has aircraft deployed over Tripoli but cannot confirm it bombed Muammar Gaddafi's compound.

NATO spokesperson, Oana Lungescu, said: "it is the final chapter, the end is near and events are moving fast what is clear is Gaddafi is history. The Libyan people should be spared."

"Mission to protect civilians remains necessary, we cannot drop our guard and we won't. This afternoon, ambassadors will meet at NATO headquarters to discuss the way forward and look at options for a possible nato role," she said during a press conference in Naples.

54 min 19 sec ago - Libya

Opposition fighters from towns outside Tripoli have been streaming into the capital to help fight the remaining pro-Gaddafi forces.

1 hour 2 min ago - Libya

Smoke seen rising from Libyan leader's fortress as loyalists and rebels battle for control of Tripoli's streets:

1416: South Africa has again rejected reports that it has been approached by Col Gaddafi and members of his family for asylum, says the South African Broadcasting Corporation. "We certainly don't have any news about any offer of asylum by any of the African governments to Col Gaddafi or his family," said spokesman Nkoliswe Nkosi.

1408: Paul Wood BBC News, Benghazi says that after the initial jubilation at the rebels' advance in Tripoli, there is a more anxious mood now amid the realisation there may be more hard fighting ahead in Tripoli. And after Col Gaddafi goes, the difficulties could really begin. There is infighting within rebel ranks - deep and dangerous divisions between Islamist and secular, and between east and west Libya.

1350: Libyan opposition radio says rebels have succeeded in storming one of the main gates of Col Gaddafi's compound in Tripoli, BBC Monitoring reports.

1348: Orla Guerin BBC News in rebel-held Misrata says there is confidence there that the rebels will win. "People here were anticipating tough battles inside Tripoli - this city itself had a long battle before falling to the rebels. That said, the rebel leadership is doing all it can to rush reinforcements to the frontline in Tripoli. They say they got 500 men in from Misrata on Monday."

Flyingbirdies in Tripoli tweets: Just came back from Fernaj area - Eloiti Markts is open and I bought fresh milk.

1346: Unverified YouTube video of rebels next to an Afriqiyah plane at Tripoli International Airport in the west of the city. The rebels are claiming the plane belongs to Gaddafi.

1343: Correction to Rupert Wingfield-Hayes post at 13:20: Nato jets (not rebel jets) bombed Col Gaddafi's compound earlier on Tuesday.

1335: A Nato spokesman says it will continue Libya operations and will bomb Gaddafi forces if they keep fighting, says an Associated Press report from Brussels. But Col Roland Lavoie told reporters that pro-Gaddafi forces were severely degraded and losing strength through desertions and defections.

1334: Another comment made by a BBC Arabic reader during a debate on Libya: "I think that Tripoli fall is inevitable," says Altihali Alhassan from Morocco. "But the country might be divided due to its tribal nature."

1449: More from rebel spokesman Hany Hassan Soufrakis on Saif al-Islam Gaddafi: "He was captured and apparently he escaped; that's the information we're getting. To be honest, it's an embarrassment," he told the BBC World Service

A US lawmaker fiercely opposed to NATO's role in the Libya conflict called Tuesday for the alliance's military chiefs to be held to account under international law for the deaths of Libyan civilians.

"Otherwise we will have witnessed the triumph of a new international gangsterism," Democratic Representative Dennis Kucinich, a leading opponent in the US Congress to Washington's role in the fighting, said in a statement.

Kucinich said that NATO forces had flouted UN Security Council resolutions in acting as "the air force for the rebels, who could not have succeeded but for NATO's attacks" and had "illegally pursued regime change."

"NATO's top commanders may have acted under color of international law but they are not exempt from international law," he said, as opposition fighters captured Muammar Gaddafi's fortified Tripoli compound.

"If members of the Gaddafi regime are to be held accountable, NATO's top commanders must also be held accountable through the International Criminal Court for all civilian deaths resulting from bombing," said Kucinich.

NATO has insisted that its attacks are in keeping with UN resolutions passed this year which allow military action to protect civilians in Libya.

But UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has expressed alarm at the number of civilian casualties in the conflict, including those inflicted in NATO air strikes.

And NATO's air attacks have drawn harsh criticism from members of the UN Security Council, including Russia, China, Brazil, India and South Africa, who say the action goes beyond UN resolutions on Libya. - AFP

"illegally pursued regime change."