Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

There's been a question for days about the actions of the military. It seems that they are not interested in squashing the revolt.

The US, by the way, provides something like $1.5Bn in aid to Egypt, most of which goes to the military. The notion of using aid as a club to urge the removal Mubarak is being warned against by some.

ticians like stability. Bankers like stability. But the "stability" we have so long embraced in the Arab world wasn't really stability. It was repression. The benign dictators we have supported, or anyway tolerated—the Zine al-Abidine Ben Alis, the Hosni Mubaraks, the various kings and princes—have stayed in power by preventing economic development, clamping down on free speech, keeping tight control of education, and above all by stamping down hard on anything resembling civil society. Every year, more books are translated into Greek—a language spoken by 11 million people—than into Arabic, a language spoken by more than 220 million. Independent organizations of all kinds, from political parties and private businesses to women's groups and academic societies have been watched, harassed, or banned altogether.


The result: Egypt, like many Arab societies, has a wealthy and well-armed elite at the top and a fanatical and well-organized Islamic fundamentalist movement at the bottom.

By Jennifer Rubin
Egypt isn't hopeless, but I fear this administration's approach is. After plenty of good advice over the weekend, a meeting today with outside experts (although the two ablest and most frank invitees could not attend) and appropriate calls for Obama to "seize the moment," the White House appears to have fallen back into nonsensical blather on Egypt and decided against exercising any real influence (such as it is).

Robert Gibbs hid behind a fog of words at the afternoon briefing. "It is not up to us to determine when the grievances of the Egyptian people have been met by the Egyptian government," he said. And on it went into timidity:

"I'm not going to get into a series of hypotheticals," Gibbs says when asked about a government transition. "There have to be meaningful negotiations with a broad cross-section of the Egyptian people, including opposition groups, that go to answering the very core of the freedoms the people desire."

Gibbs sidesteps another question about whether Egypt's president, Hosni Mubarak, should run in an election. "The United States government does not determine who is on the ballot," he says. "The question is whether those elections are going to be free and fair."

Gibbs is asked to define an "orderly transition" in Egypt, as specified by the White House. He says it's about "actions," not "appointments," and that there should be free elections and constitutional changes that allow for a "more open and democratic process."

I exchanged e-mails with an attendee at this morning's meeting. I asked, "Did you get the sense they realize they are behind the curve?" The attendee said yes. But perhaps that was just for show, in a vain attempt to clamp down on the storm of bipartisan criticism. Today, we see more of the same deer-in-the-headlights behavior from the administration.

Hosni Mubarak won't survive this revolution, but neither will Obama's standing in the region. He may be consumed with domestic issues and/or paralyzed by fear of embodying the left's "imperialist" bogeyman. But he is missing the point and the moment. All he need do is make clear that we, like the Egyptian people, have lost confidence in the aging dictator. Our aid should be suspended, we should call for free elections, and there should be no doubt as to whose side we are on. But that's not Obama's style, it seems. And so, we are now identified with a decrepit despot instead of with the democratic aspirations of the Egyptian people. Some "Muslim Outreach,"huh

Monday, January 31, 2011
Israeli minister urges Egypt to use force
Press TV- An Israeli minister says Egyptian government forces will have to exercise force to rein in public protests as the African country is teetering on the brink of a Tunisia-style revolution.


Inspired by the recent popular revolution in Tunisia, which resulted in the historic overthrow of the country's President Zine El Abidin Ben Ali, Egyptians have staged similar anti-government protests since Tuesday, calling on President Hosni Mubarak to relinquish power after three decades in office.

Meanwhile, an Israeli cabinet minister who spoke on condition of anonymity to Israeli media stated on Thursday that the Egyptian president backed by a strong militarily prowess will eventually subdue the crisis, The Washington Post reported.

"His regime is well-rooted in the military and security apparatus," said the Israeli minister, adding that, "They will have to exercise force, power in the street and do it. But they are strong enough according to my assessment to overcome it."

Egypt, which is widely regarded as the first Arab country to seal peace agreement with Israel three decades ago, remains one of Tel Aviv's most important allies.

On Thursday, Israel's Deputy Prime Minister Silvan Shalom told reporters that Tel Aviv is closely watching the still-unfolding situation in Egypt, and does not see a threat in its ties with the African nation. Read more
at 1/31/2011 10:30:00 AM

I thought the majority of lefties here were against interfering in another countries internal affairs, especially by the USA ?

I think they will get rid of Mubarak, pause, take a deep breath and then say " now what ?" That will be when the situation is most dangerous...when they lose their unity.

"The presence of the army in the streets is for your sake and to ensure your safety and wellbeing. The armed forces will not resort to use of force against our great people," the army statement said.

"Your armed forces, who are aware of the legitimacy of your demands and are keen to assume their responsibility in protecting the nation and the citizens, affirms that freedom of expression through peaceful means is guaranteed to everybody."

The statement was read on state television by army spokesman Ismail Etman, who said the military "has not and will not use force against the public".

You need to seek help over this obsession you have with Sarah Palin.

I think it most likely that the military, if they dump Mubarak, will simply replace him with another military man.

Egypt Protests Show American Foreign-Policy Folly:
While popular uprisings erupt across the Middle East, America stands on the sidelines. Stephen Kinzer on why the U.S. should abandon its self-defeating strategy in the region.:

Egypt riots are an intelligence chief's nightmare

Western intelligence in general and Israeli intelligence in particular did not foresee the scope of change in Egypt, which may require a reorganization of the IDF.
By Amos Harel
Published 21:41 29.01.11
Latest update 21:41 29.01.11

The events of the last few days in Egypt – apparently the most important regional development since the Islamic revolution in Iran and the Egyptian-Israeli peace deal of 1979 – are also an expression of the decision-makers' nightmare, the planners and intelligence agents in Israel.

While in other countries many are watching with satisfaction at what looks to be possibly the imminent toppling of a regime that denied its citizens their basic rights, the Israeli point of view is completely different.


Protesters shout slogans during demonstrations in Cairo, January 29, 2011.
Photo by: Reuters

The collapse of the old regime in Cairo, if it takes place, will have a massive effect, mainly negative, on Israel's position in the region. In the long run, it could put the peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan in danger, the largest strategic assets after the support of the United States.

The changes could even lead to changes in the IDF and cast a dark cloud over the economy.

Western intelligence in general and Israeli intelligence in particular did not foresee the scope of change in Egypt (the eventual descriptor "revolution" will apparently have to wait a little longer). Likewise, almost all of the media analysis and academic experts got it wrong.

In the possible scenarios that Israeli intelligence envisioned, they admittedly posited 2011 as a year of possible regime change – with a lot question marks – in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, but a popular uprising like this was completely unexpected.

More than this, in his first appearance at a meeting last Wednesday of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee the new head of military intelligence Major General Aviv Kochavi said to member of Knesset, "There are currently no doubts about the stability of the regime in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood is not organized enough to take over, they haven't managed to consolidate their efforts in a significant direction."

If the Mubarak regime is toppled, the quiet coordination of security between Israel and Egypt will quickly be negatively affected. It will affect relations between Cairo's relationship with the Hamas government in the Gaza Strip, it will harm the international forces stationed in Sinai.

It will mean the refusal of Egypt to continue to allow the movement of Israeli ships carrying missiles through the Suez canal, which was permitted for the last two years, according to reports in the foreign press, in order to combat weapons smuggling from Sudan to Gaza. In the long run, Egypt's already-cold peace treaty with Israel will get even colder.

From the perspective of the IDF, the events are going to demand a complete reorganization. For the last 20 years, the IDF has not included a serious threat from Egypt in its operational plan. ...<cont>