Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

@msolga,

El Baradei would have to negotiate a deal with the military. His popularity could be seen as a drawback in military circles, if they think he would accede to a popular request for trials which could touch military men. One thing which was bruited about was limiting the President to two terms only (the office is for a term of six years). If something like that were passed, and the military could be assure that they would not be subjected to show trials, they might go along with him.

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@Lash,

Your lack of thinking is really what should piss you off, Lash. Surely, a lady so bright can't be this naive.

1 Reply

@Setanta,

just my opinion but I don't think El Baradei would be acceptable to either the military or the populace other than an in interim functionary. He's just not all that popular.

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@dyslexia,

dys, Spot on!
From USA Today:

Quote:

#
Mohamed ElBaradei rising as possible new Egypt president

Mohamed ElBaradei is emerging as a potential replacement for Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, but he's seen as a temporary leader. ...

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@Setanta,

Quote:

El Baradei would have to negotiate a deal with the military.

Yes, I that's what I thought would be the case.

Quote:

His popularity could be seen as a drawback in military circles, if they think he would accede to a popular request for trials which could touch military men. One thing which was bruited about was limiting the President to two terms only (the office is for a term of six years). If something like that were passed, and the military could be assure that they would not be subjected to show trials, they might go along with him.

Interesting.

Does El Baradei have a strong commitment to these trials going ahead?
How important do you think such trials are to the Egyptian people?
(I don't know if you know the answers, but if you do, I'd be interested to know.)

I've read quite a number of times that the army is "popular" with the Egyptian people.
But I'm wondering how the protest movement would respond to a military head of government, as opposed to an elected leader, even if it's one who can only be installed with the blessing of the military.
I'm wondering if (for the broad protest movement) having an elected leader is an expectation of any new post-Mubarak government.

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@dyslexia,

El Baradei is a diplomat, not a politician. I suspect and hope that he will fill a void and then step back once the situation stabilizes.

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@dyslexia,

Quote:

He's just not all that popular.

That's the view I've come across any number of times, from any number of middle east commentators.
My understanding is that he is the spokesperson for the broad anti-government movement almost as a compromise ...

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@msolga,

msolga wrote:

I'm wondering if (for the broad protest movement) having an elected leader is an expectation of any new post-Mubarak government.

one of the things that has been mentioned quite a bit on the radio features here is commentary by people who have emigrated from Egypt about how people in Egypt don't care to vote. There apparently is a not uncommon practice of paying people to vote on your behalf - that is, not to cast their vote the way you want them to, but to pay them to actually vote as you. It's a completely different way of thinking to anything I'm used to.

1 Reply

@Ionus,

Ionus wrote:

I think they will get rid of Mubarak, pause, take a deep breath and then say " now what ?" That will be when the situation is most dangerous...when they lose their unity.

this is also a constant refrain of the on-the-ground reporters (and what I heard tonight, 2nd hand, from my friend who is in Cairo right now) - the protestors know what they don't want, but they don't know what they do want

1 Reply

@ehBeth,

Quote:

the protestors know what they don't want, but they don't know what they do want ..

... or, perhaps, it is extremely difficult for such a large of number of different groups, with quite different agendas, to reach agreement?

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@msolga,

Not much different than most democracies.

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

Except that most of us don't have to struggle so hard remove to remove a tyrant before we can even contemplate out agendas being addressed ....

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@msolga,

nope

too many groups and individuals who don't really have agendas - other than not being in the state they're in now - they're protesting against something, not protesting for something

there are clearly some groups and individuals with agendas but too many without one

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@msolga,

Quote:

Except that most of us don't have to struggle so hard remove to remove a tyrant before we can even contemplate out agendas being addressed ....

Right, because we are make such quick work of winning back control of our destiny from the corporate class!

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@msolga,

well, there hasn't been a lot of interest in removing the tyrants until comparatively recently, so there hasn't been tons of struggle in that regard

1 Reply

@dyslexia,

He's getting a lot of attention because he's familiar to Western reporters.

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Quote:

Yet one thing nags at me. These pro-democracy protesters say overwhelmingly that America is on the side of President Mubarak and not with them. They feel that way partly because American policy statements seem so nervous, so carefully calculated — and partly because these protesters were attacked with tear gas shells marked “made in U.S.A.”

The upshot is that this pro-democracy movement, full of courage and idealism and speaking the language of 1776, wasn’t inspired by us. No, the Egyptians said they feel inspired by Tunisia — and a bit stymied by America.

Everywhere I go, Egyptians insist to me that Americans shouldn’t perceive their movement as a threat. And I find it sad that Egyptians are lecturing Americans on the virtues of democracy.

“We need your support,” pleaded Dr. Mahmood Hussein, a physiology professor. “We need freedom.”

Ahmed Muhammad, a medical student, told me: “Egyptian people will not forget what Obama does today. If he supports the Egyptian dictator, the Egyptian people will never forget that. Not for 30 years.”

The movement is snowballing. Protesters scorn what they see as baby steps toward reform by Mr. Mubarak, when they insist that he must make a giant leap — away from Egypt.

As I see it, Mr. Mubarak’s only chance to stay in power is if he orders a violent crackdown

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/01/opinion/01kristof.html?_r=1&hp

What ever illusions Americans have about "leading the free world" really need to be buried at this point. And Obama again is a huge disappointment on the job. For the next two years we will hear all about how his lack of success is the other guys fault, but over and over again we watch as he makes poor choices.

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@ehBeth,

I'm certain many Egyptians have wanted to rid themselves of Mubarak for years ...

I'm so glad they're getting their opportunity now.

1 Reply

@ehBeth,

That's interesting! Surprised

Someone else voting on your behalf!
And paying them to do it for you!

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@Finn dAbuzz,

Quote:

He's getting a lot of attention because he's familiar to Western reporters

and over recent years America Journalists have shown such a fine understanding of the realities of life outside of America! NOT

Especially in reporting from the Middle East finding a Journalist who can tell the difference between his/her ass and a hole in the ground has been a challenge.

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Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

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