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Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

 
 
hingehead
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 05:34 pm
@hawkeye10,
What are the implications for US Aid to Egypt (the second largest recipient of US Foreign Aid) - will it be frozen pending the outcome of the current unrest? I guess it depends whether the Muslim Brotherhood becomes prominent or whether an Elbareidi-like figure manages the country until elections can be held? And longer term the actions of any elected government would influence US Aid - or is that Aid part of the Peace treaty with Israel, so as long as the treaty is observed the cash keeps flowing?
hingehead
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 05:40 pm
More from Ben at CNN

In last 5 days haven't seen any major expressions of political Islam. It's not there, armchair "terrorism" experts. Move on. #Jan25 #Egypt
2 hours ago

bencnn benwedeman
Mubarak government makes me feel 15 years younger: when there was no internet, no cell phones, no blackberry (in Egypt). #Jan25 #Egypt
3 hours ago
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 05:40 pm
11:28pm: America's highest-ranking military officer has praised the "professionalism" and restraint of Egypt's armed forces, following a phone call with a senior Egyptian commander. Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Lieutenant General Sami Enan, chief of staff of Egypt's armed forces, of his "appreciation for the continued professionalism" of the Egyptian military. "Both men reaffirmed their desire to see the partnership between our two militaries continue, and they pledged to stay in touch," a Pentagon spokesman announced.

10.51pm: Senior judges and scholars from Al-Azhar University are among those lending their support to the late-night demonstrators in Tahrir Square, Al Jazeera TV reports.
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 05:45 pm
@hingehead,
hingehead wrote:

What are the implications for US Aid to Egypt (the second largest recipient of US Foreign Aid) - will it be frozen pending the outcome of the current unrest?


several callers today to Cross-Country Check-up said that most Egyptians would prefer the aid to be halted as it goes directly to the military.

the callers were primarily immigrants to Canada from Egypt, including a few who had been in Cairo as recently as Thursday and Friday.

of course, most of them truly only represent themselves (other than a few guests who represented particular groups in Egypt), but it was useful to hear the perspective of people who'd been there so recently
ossobuco
 
  0  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 05:58 pm
@Setanta,
What is with Miss Clinton? I can only assume you have heard of the addressives, Ms. or Mrs.
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 06:04 pm
@JPB,
Haven't read past this post. I'm not clear that this isn't dumb. Fear running is also a mover of change, exacerbating change that might not happen if people didn't run.

I'm aware of the problems with staying, like massacres. It's a question to me, though.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 06:06 pm
@hingehead,
I don't know the details of the deal, but I doubt they have been made public knowledge anyway.

Robert Gibbs indicated continue aid would be under review, but that was several days ago and the White House message is fluid and not necessarily owned by any one person.

I would imagine that the continued aid is a very large consideration of discussions between the US and the Egyptian military. (I suspect the folks eh-Beth heard are correct and that most of the aid goes to the military).

It appears that either the US has cut a deal with the military or is close to cutting one. For continued US aid, Mubarak bows out and is replaced by an interim government with a promise of some immediate reforms and general elections in 12 months. The military has yet to burn any bridges with the people, and will endorse the transition.

I would then expect that whatever new government emerges after elections they will be offered the same aid deal. If it's an Islamic government and it can't abide a continued alliance with Israel, the aid will get cut off.

0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 06:06 pm
@ehBeth,
Quote:
several callers today to Cross-Country Check-up said that most Egyptians would prefer the aid to be halted as it goes directly to the military.
there was one report where a demonstrator showed a reporter some of the rubber bullets fired at them....in very small print on one side they said "made in America"....THAT, he said, is an illustration of the problem.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 06:14 pm
@hawkeye10,
hawkeye10 wrote:

Quote:
several callers today to Cross-Country Check-up said that most Egyptians would prefer the aid to be halted as it goes directly to the military.
there was one report where a demonstrator showed a reporter some of the rubber bullets fired at them....in very small print on one side they said "made in America"....THAT, he said, is an illustration of the problem.


Unless the Egyptian military loses it's considerable influence or takes a 90 degree turn away from its current pro-US position, it won't really matter whether or not the protesters want the aid to cease. With the way Iran is going, any Egyptian government should want to maintain a strong military...especially if they can do it on the American dime.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 06:22 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Quote:
Unless the Egyptian military loses it's considerable influence or takes a 90 degree turn away from its current pro-US position, it won't really matter whether or not the protesters want the aid to cease. With the way Iran is going, any Egyptian government should want to maintain a strong military...especially if they can do it on the American dime.
Have the nations moved? Egypt was a long ways away from Iran last time I looked, the only thing Iran can do to Egypt is to export fundamentalist Islamic revolution, and I don't see a strong military helping very much to stop that.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 06:27 pm
@hawkeye10,
And Nazi Germany was a long way away too.
0 Replies
 
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 06:33 pm
@Lash,
Quote:
Quote:
Hopefully, whatever the outcome, it will mean a much better deal for the ordinary people of Egypt. And about time, too!


I'm not quite sure what this sentence means, but if you are going on record as saying you know that Egypt will be better off after their new regime is installed, please inform how you know this

What I mean is that, whatever the outcome of the current upheavals in Egypt (and Yemen, Tunisia & Jordan, too), I'm hoping for a much better deal for the people. Egyptians are protesting about 30 years of ruthless repression from their autocratic government. They are also protesting about entrenched poverty, government corruption, exorbitant food costs, high unemployment, lack of opportunity for ordinary citizens to improve their lot in life, the widening gap between the rich & poor & many other things as well. I support their struggle & I hope there are vast improvements in their lives, whatever the outcome of the protests. I think that's pretty straight forward?

As for how I "know" the instillation of a new "regime" will somehow automatically make them "better off", I don't know whether this will be the case or not. How could I possibly know? None of us following the events in Egypt know what the outcome will be, at this point in time. But let's hope it's not another repressive "regime", like the one they have now. The only other alternative government leader I'm aware of is ElBaradei, but it appears (going by a number of reports I've read, on the BBC & other news sources) that he does not have the support of all the various factions involved in the protests. Where things go from here is anyone's guess.

Quote:
Your statements put you firmly in agreement with George Bush, who felt strongly . Nice to see you on board - even if it is a bit late.

Very funny, Lash. Wink
I have rarely been firmly in agreement with George Bush about much at all. And am not about to start doing so now.
I guess your basing that assumption on recent commentary in articles like this one in the Washington Post?:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/28/AR2011012803144.html

Personally, at the time, I paid much more attention to his government's actions than his foreign policy rhetoric.
I can't see how, for example, invading Iraq (using the justification of weapons of mass destruction) addressed the "freedom deficit" in that country, or did much to improve the lives of ordinary Iraqis. Thousands of civilians lost their lives as a result of that invasion, many have become refugees as a result of it. I doubt that anyone much argues that Iraqis are better off today as a result of it.
Though perhaps you disagree? If so I'd be interested to your assessment of the situation.

I have no argument that many Arab countries in the middle east are virtual dictatorships, in which the ordinary citizens experience extreme hardship & repression. (That's what these current protests in Egypt & other are motivated by, surely.) But no way can I endorse the sort of "solutions" which Bush & co propounded.
I find the notion of "regime change" imposed by force, by another powerful country (against the will of the people) a highly dubious concept. We should be listening to what the people of Egypt, Yemen, etc, want. Not imposing what we believe is "best" for them.

As for your statement: "if we put a democracy in Iraq, the other regional countries would see it and want it".
I sincerely doubt that other countries in the region would have welcomed similar treatment. I haven't heard of any who have exactly clamoured for it.
Have you?
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 07:23 pm
Meanwhile, in Tunisia ...:

Quote:

30 January 2011 Last updated at 23:48 GMT
Tunisian Islamist leader Rachid Ghannouchi returns home
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/51025000/jpg/_51025749_011152727-1.jpg
The airport welcome was the biggest showing by Tunisia's Islamists for decades

The leader of Tunisia's main Islamist movement has returned home after 22 years in exile following the ousting of President Ben Ali earlier this month
.

Thousands of people went to the airport to welcome Rachid Ghannouchi, 69, as he arrived in Tunis from London.

He has said he will not run in the next presidential poll but his party will contest a parliamentary election.

Observers say his return is the most potent symbol yet of the change that has swept the country since then.


Mr Ghannouchi fled Tunisia after a crackdown President Ben Ali against his banned Ennahda movement.

He returned after the interim government's announced that media curbs would be lifted, banned political parties allowed to register and political prisoners given amnesty.

Up to 10,000 young men and veiled women packed the arrival hall and car park at the airport, and some climbed trees and electricity pylons to catch a glimpse of Mr Ghannouchi, according to Reuters.

Alongside his supporters, the news agency said, was a small group of secularists with banners reading: "No Islamism, no theocracy, no Sharia and no stupidity!"

"I myself will not run for the presidency... We (Ennahda) have no intention of fielding a candidate in the upcoming presidential election," he said. ...<cont>


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12318824
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 07:26 pm
@msolga,
Quote:
As for your statement: "if we put a democracy in Iraq, the other regional countries would see it and want it".
I sincerely doubt that other countries in the region would have welcomed similar treatment. I haven't heard of any who have exactly clamoured for it.


I don't find the fact that other dictators in the region are not requesting US intervention in their fiefdoms to be surprising...do you?

In any case, the idea wasn't to stimulate invitations for US invasions.

If Democracy succeeds in Iraq, the thinking is that it will serve as an example to the people of other nations in the region of a better way of life, that is possible for them too.
IRFRANK
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 07:27 pm
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
there was one report where a demonstrator showed a reporter some of the rubber bullets fired at them....in very small print on one side they said "made in America"....THAT, he said, is an illustration of the problem.


I can understand the feelings from that, but it is better than hollow points.
IRFRANK
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 07:29 pm
@ehBeth,
Quote:
Friends and their baby arrived in Cairo just at the beginning of the current mess. I needed the smile.


My best wishes that they make it through without incident.
0 Replies
 
hingehead
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 07:31 pm
@IRFRANK,
Quote:
I can understand the feelings from that, but it is better than hollow points.


I'm vaguely impressed that there is still some manufacturing within US borders Wink
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 07:37 pm
@hingehead,
hh, Actually, with the economic growth in China, the US has a very good opportunity to get back to manufacture goods for the Chinese market. Most people around the world favor US produced products for our technical know-how and quality.

The reason GM came out of bankruptcy so quickly is the simple fact that GM's sales growth was very successful in China. Their growing middle-class will want more products from the US in the future; it's up to US companies to take advantage of this "new and growing" demand.
hingehead
 
  2  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 07:48 pm
@cicerone imposter,
I have no doubt there are niche manufacturing areas where US manufacture is seen as a good thing, weaponry certainly. I'm surprised by the GM sales growth - I see cars and consumer electronics as two areas where the US reputation isn't as high as East Asia's - but that is my personal perspective. Hang on, why are we talking about this on this thread? Sorry all - carry on.
0 Replies
 
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jan, 2011 08:11 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Quote:
I don't find the fact that other dictators in the region are not requesting US intervention in their fiefdoms to be surprising...do you?

No, but why would they?
Neither Saddam, nor the people of Iraq invited the invasion of Iraq, either.
(I make a clear distinction between the desires & aspirations of the people & their autocratic leaders & governments. Often two completely different things. As we can clearly see in the examples of Tunisia, Yemen, etc ...)
I haven't come across any calls in media reports of requests for outside intervention from the leaders of the Egyptian protesters, either.

Quote:
In any case, the idea wasn't to stimulate invitations for US invasions.

Sorry, but which idea are you referring to?
Do you mean outside intervention to promote democracy?
Quote:
If Democracy succeeds in Iraq, the thinking is that it will serve as an example to the people of other nations in the region of a better way of life, that is possible for them too.

Well that's rather a big "if" at this point in time, Finn.
But just say democracy eventually did prevail, years down the track, you'd have to ask the people of Iraq whether they believed all the death, destruction & suffering (as a result of the intervention/invasion) was worth the cost to them. I would sincerely doubt others living under repressive regimes in the middle east have been inspired by the Iraq intervention model for change.





 

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