Mark:
BIRTHDAYS
The probability is 0.903 with 41 people.
It is clear to me sweet Shari gave you the answer.
One way to solve this is to turn the problem around and think about how likely it is for there to be NO matches in a group of a given size. If there is only one person a room there can be no shared birthdays since there is no one to share with. The probability of not having a match in this case is 1. Events that are certain are said to have a probability of 1. At the other extreme, with 367 people in the room, it is certain that there will be at least one shared birthday since there aren't enough birthdays to go around.
Now imagine that a second person walks into the room. The probability of that person not having the same birthday as the first occupant of the room is 365 / 366 or 0.997. There are 366 possible birthdays and only one of them is a match.
Now if the first two people in the room have different birthdays and a third person walks in, there are two days used up so the probability of the third person not sharing a birthday with either roommate is 364 / 366 and the probability of no sharing amongst the three of them is 1 * 365 / 366 * 364 / 366 = 0.992, which is still over 99%. So with 2 or 3 people in the room there is less than a 1% chance of a shared birthday.
You can continue to calculate the chances of not having a shared birthday for any number of people:
1 * 365 / 366 * 364 / 366 * 363 / 366 * 362 / 366 ...
Things change quickly as the number of people increases. With 10 people in the room there is a better than 10% chance of a match. When there are 23 people in a room the chance of a shared birthday is slightly greater than 50% and it rises above 90% with 41 people.
Shari (whoever she is) wrote, "my birthday is in 7 months and I am expecting gifts!!"
Mark replied, "Put a note under my pillow the day before."
Why don't you two get a room already!!!
Shari riddle - It is well known amongst LA socialites that Shari has a short fuse. To further complicate matters; the rate at which a fuse burns is irregular. If an m-minute fuse is cut into two pieces, one of the pieces will burn for n minutes and the other for m-n minutes, but there is no way of determining n.
Suppose you have two 60-minute fuses, is it possible to clock 45 minutes
A pot contains 75 white beans and 150 black ones. Next to the pot is a large pile of black beans.
A somewhat demented cook removes the beans from the pot, one at a time, according to the following strange rule:
He removes two beans from the pot at random. If at least one of the beans is black, he places it on the bean-pile and drops the other bean, no matter what color, back in the pot. If both beans are white, on the other hand, he discards both of them and removes one black bean from the pile and drops it in the pot.
At each turn of this procedure, the pot has one less bean in it. Eventually, just one bean is left in the pot. What color is it