The 2010 U.S. Census

I put out an invite to anyone on the threads where I hang out to host this thread. I got no responses. So, coming up shortly is a bit of an essay to get this started.
But first a question. The 3.8M includes illegal immigrants. What would you put that number at?

The 1st round of numbers indicate that the rust belt (NY, PA, IL) lost population while the sun belt (TX, FL, AZ, NV) will gain. This will result in the southern states gaining seats in the U.S. House and also electoral votes come the next presidential election as the latter states are perceived as more Republican leaning while the former have traditionally been more Democrat.
Does that make sense?

that's a rhetorical question, right...?

I realize I am talking to myself, RH. I am probably the only person on A2K who gives a **** enough about census data to actually keep a notebook going on it.
Perhaps I should take up stamp collecting.

what am I, chopped liver...?

(nods to Boida)

Rather senseless anyway, maybe that should be censusless. The figures aren't accurate. Even the illegal figurines are wrong.

I refused to submit on this invasion in my personal life. They asked many questions I didn't like the sound of and there were codes bar codes which meant the could trace you back. Screw them and their spy attempts.

Past times I've answered and then there was the time I made up fictionals, even inclcluded a cat.



Screw them and their spying attempts at invading my space.

The census is a good thing, but our reactions to it are typically poor, on both a personal and a political level.

For example, the vast majority of growth in most states is in urban areas - big cities. These cities typically vote Democratic in elections. But many of these states have Republican legislatures, who use this population growth to... get more Republican legislators in office

Cycloptichorn

I did stamp collecting, philatelists are highly under appreciated.

Much was made of Texas gaining 4 House seats while seats were lost up north. The census data shows that 63% of the added population in Texas was driven by Hispanics. Florida's two seat gain was 51% driven by Hispanics.

You're not talking to yourself. I'm very interested in this analysis. It is just at the moment, I am overly saturated with the reporting of politics, political maneuvering and manipulating, and political commentary. I need a break from it.

I just read the topic starter because it was authored by you. Can I take a rain check and come back to participate in this analysis in a week?

What happens next after the census is the craft of redistricting. Even in states that neither gain nor lose a seat in Congress, there are redrawing of lines such that each district within the state has roughly the same number of people. A computer could do that, I guess, but overlaying that is the concept that the district should consist of people with some kinds of common interests. Farmers, ranchers, yuppies, urbanites, and not so subtly, blacks or whites or Hispanics.
Which brings us to the art of gerrymandering, where districts, often with bizarre shapes, are designed to include or exclude voters or to protect or deny seats to one or another political party.
Texas will gain 4 seats. But it is still under the eye of of the Voting Rights Act. It's history of racial discrimination requires it to redistrict so as to not put minorities at a disadvantage. Two districts in Texas will be created that will heavily favor Repubs (who control the process) but the other two will likely be largely Hispanic.

(By the way, I keep tripping over Hispanic vs Latino. I prefer the latter, I think, but the media seems to go for the former).

that may be east and west..

Two comments before going to bed:
One is a quote from a Washington Post article from Dec 22nd-
Sen David Vitter (R-La): " Louisiana stands to lose clout in Congress, while states that welcome illegal immigrants stand to unfairly benefit from artificially inflated population totals."
From the same article, but from another person: "...(T)he majority of Hispanics are in the country legally and ... among the Latino population younger than 18, more than 90 percent are citizens."
This latter person seemed to differentiate between Hispanic and Latino. That struck me as odd.

In the long run, demographics are more important than geography. Younger voters have trended Democratic over the last 6-8 years and that appears to be continuing. Conservative voters, in contrast, tend to be older and whiter. In 30 years or so, the US will be a majority-minority country, and the conservative voters of today will be safely ensconced in their graves, safe at last from the onslaught of all those brown people. Most of the increase in population in Texas and Florida, for instance, is the result of Hispanics, who tend to vote Democratic (although not in the same percentages as blacks).

In the long run, then, the additional congressional seats in the south and west won't necessarily be safe Republican districts. In the short run, however, I expect that the Republican legislatures will do their best to gerrymander the hell out of those congressional boundaries.

funny, i'm the first to admit i find all politicians to be scumbag liars and politics in general a reprehensible endeavour for a decent human being to engage in*

that being said, i love the census, i think its good for the country (canada in my case) and am disappointed that the government is screwing around with the long form census this year (getting rid of it), bring on the questions i say

* i like government, i just feel there has to be a better way of administering it than politics

There are some interactive maps and graphs at MSNBC that show the changes in population state by state since 1940. There are tabs that also show population density and apportionment for the same period in each state.

This Wikipedia article has the historical data on apportionment:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_congressional_apportionment



This Wikipedia article has the current list of Congressional Districts by state with links to a list of demographics for each district in each state:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_congressional_districts

The CS Monitor has a few good articles and columns on the limits to gerrymandering and the voting rights act:

http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2010/1222/Democrats-don-t-panic-over-post-Census-redistricting

http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2010/1222/Democrats-last-line-of-defense-against-GOP-gerrymandering-the-Voting-Rights-Act

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/2010/1105/Big-perk-for-GOP-in-state-election-wins-more-power-in-redistricting