1999 war games foresaw problems in Iraq

WASHINGTON - The U.S. government conducted a series of secret war games in 1999 that anticipated an invasion of Iraq would require 400,000 troops, and even then chaos might ensue.

In its "Desert Crossing" games, 70 military, diplomatic and intelligence officials assumed the high troop levels would be needed to keep order, seal borders and take care of other security needs.

1999 war games foresaw problems in Iraq - Yahoo! News

_"A change in regimes does not guarantee stability," the 1999 seminar briefings said. "A number of factors including aggressive neighbors, fragmentation along religious and/or ethnic lines, and chaos created by rival forces bidding for power could adversely affect regional stability."

_"Even when civil order is restored and borders are secured, the replacement regime could be problematic ? especially if perceived as weak, a puppet, or out-of-step with prevailing regional governments."

_" Iran's anti-Americanism could be enflamed by a U.S.-led intervention in Iraq," the briefings read. "The influx of U.S. and other western forces into Iraq would exacerbate worries in Tehran, as would the installation of a pro-western government in Baghdad."

_"The debate on post-Saddam Iraq also reveals the paucity of information about the potential and capabilities of the external Iraqi opposition groups. The lack of intelligence concerning their roles hampers U.S. policy development."

_"Also, some participants believe that no Arab government will welcome the kind of lengthy U.S. presence that would be required to install and sustain a democratic government."

_"A long-term, large-scale military intervention may be at odds with many coalition partners."
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The military, during the Clinton years, , seemed to realize what we would face if we invaded Iraq . We had an idea of what was in store for us, but chose to ignore previous plans to let Rummy take control.

The troop level has been in question from the start of the war as it still is, and for good reason.The military, under Bush, were doomed to fail in Iraq because they chose to make up their own rules. Another example of poor judgement.

We need to do more than" change the course". We need to " change the horse" we rode in on. Rumsfeld should step down.