Independents Moving Toward McCain

The Loft Blog Archive Independents Moving Toward McCain

In a significant move for the McCain-Palin campaign, the support of "independent" voters has shifted dramatically from Barack Obama to John McCain. When all other factors are equal, the independent or "swing" voters can certainly make a difference, so this is welcome news.

According to a new Gallup poll, "John McCain's 6 percentage-point bounce in voter support spanning the Republican National Convention is largely explained by political independents shifting to him in fairly big numbers, from 40% pre-convention to 52% post-convention in Gallup Poll Daily tracking."


According to Gallup, Republican support for McCain before the convention and after the convention was statistically unchanged (90% vs. 89%). Democrat support rose for McCain from 9% to 14%. But, as mentioned above, the significant move was among independents. Gallup notes that this is "the first time since Gallup began tracking voters' general-election preferences in March that a majority of independents have sided with either of the two major-party candidates."
Near the end of Gallup's report, the author comments on what I feel is the most significant event since the Republican National Convention:

First, according to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Sept. 5-7, McCain has energized his Republican base and, as a result, has potentially strengthened his positioning on Election Day with "likely voters." Second, as the Gallup Poll Daily trends discussed here show, voter movement toward McCain since the Republican convention occurred mainly with independents, thus broadening McCain's appeal beyond the party.

The attraction of more independents to the McCain side is significant and could make a difference in November. But it will only make a difference if the Republican base is energized. Winning elections is more than just issues versus issues. It's about turnout. Raw votes matter, but who is going door-to-door, who is staffing the phone banks, who is putting out signs? An energized base is essential to victory. Add to that the support of independents, and things are looking better for Republicans.

Tomorrow, we'll look further into the support of the conservative base by analyzing the results of the latest GOPUSA grassroots survey. Stay tuned...

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Looks like things are heating up.