@Drnaline,
THE INSURGENCY PROBLEM
36. It seems likely that, in some AL QAEDA and in some JIHADIST groups, armed violence as the way to power would acquire greater appeal. Some, stirred by the romantic revolutionary aura which might seem to surround the JIHADISTS in victory, might actually try to imitate them. Manifestations of this sort would be most likely to occur in THE MIDDLE EAST itself.
37. We doubt, however, that such impulses would result in a much more widespread and serious TERRORIST problem than would obtain in any case, either in THE MIDDLE EAST or elsewhere. If JIHADISTS in some countries temporarily acquired more will to fight, the odds for or against success for such ventures in any particular national setting would remain essentially the same.
Seems they didn't think the problems involved with the US pulling out, and Jihad would be widespread either, only that our military might be questioned, and when push came to shove we would be fine. Along with admitting what I have been saying all along, that we can not fight a war like this the way we have been.
11. The contingency we are discussing in this paper would constitute a rather dramatic demonstration that there are certain limits on US power, a discovery which would be unexpected for many, disconcerting for some, and encouraging to others ... Most would probably agree that the US could achieve its objectives ... if it persisted long enough and paid the cost. But the compelling proposition emerging from the situation would be that
the US, acting within the constraints imposed by its traditions and public attitudes, cannot crush a revolutionary AN INSURGENT movement which is sufficiently large, dedicated, competent, and well-supported. In a narrow sense, this means more simply that the structure of US military power is ill-suited to cope with guerrilla warfare waged by a determined, resourceful, and politically astute opponent. (though I disagree with the politically astute part) This is not a novel discovery. It has long been suspected. What our postulated situation would do is to reveal it dramatically.