Reply Tue 26 Jun, 2007 08:11 am
Foreign Policy: The FP Memo: The Endgame in Iraq
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92b16vx
 
  1  
Reply Tue 26 Jun, 2007 08:37 am
@Drnaline,
THE INSURGENCY PROBLEM

36. It seems likely that, in some AL QAEDA and in some JIHADIST groups, armed violence as the way to power would acquire greater appeal. Some, stirred by the romantic revolutionary aura which might seem to surround the JIHADISTS in victory, might actually try to imitate them. Manifestations of this sort would be most likely to occur in THE MIDDLE EAST itself.

37. We doubt, however, that such impulses would result in a much more widespread and serious TERRORIST problem than would obtain in any case, either in THE MIDDLE EAST or elsewhere. If JIHADISTS in some countries temporarily acquired more will to fight, the odds for or against success for such ventures in any particular national setting would remain essentially the same.


Seems they didn't think the problems involved with the US pulling out, and Jihad would be widespread either, only that our military might be questioned, and when push came to shove we would be fine. Along with admitting what I have been saying all along, that we can not fight a war like this the way we have been.

11. The contingency we are discussing in this paper would constitute a rather dramatic demonstration that there are certain limits on US power, a discovery which would be unexpected for many, disconcerting for some, and encouraging to others ... Most would probably agree that the US could achieve its objectives ... if it persisted long enough and paid the cost. But the compelling proposition emerging from the situation would be that the US, acting within the constraints imposed by its traditions and public attitudes, cannot crush a revolutionary AN INSURGENT movement which is sufficiently large, dedicated, competent, and well-supported. In a narrow sense, this means more simply that the structure of US military power is ill-suited to cope with guerrilla warfare waged by a determined, resourceful, and politically astute opponent. (though I disagree with the politically astute part) This is not a novel discovery. It has long been suspected. What our postulated situation would do is to reveal it dramatically.
0 Replies
 
Drnaline
 
  1  
Reply Tue 26 Jun, 2007 08:42 am
@Drnaline,
One of the few times i agree with you 92.
0 Replies
 
Pinochet73
 
  1  
Reply Tue 26 Jun, 2007 12:36 pm
@Drnaline,
Drnaline;23643 wrote:
Foreign Policy: The FP Memo: The Endgame in Iraq

What happens when you take a 40-year-old CIA memo on losing a war and replace the word “Vietnam” with the word “Iraq”? The result is a set of conclusions that are just as true today.

MEMORANDUM:
TO: CIA Director Gen. Michael V. Hayden
FROM: Kurt Campbell and Shawn Brimley
RE: The Consequences of Losing in Iraq

American policymakers and intelligence analysts are currently struggling to consider the potential repercussions of failure in Iraq. Forty years ago, an earlier generation of U.S. policymakers were thinking about the implications of defeat in another conflict—Vietnam.

During the summer of 1967, then CIA Director Richard Helms asked for a quiet review of the global political and strategic consequences of an American failure in Vietnam. The result was a classified memorandum circulated on Sept. 11, 1967, “Implications of an Unfavorable Outcome in Vietnam,” which detailed a lengthy list of potential dark outcomes and worrisome prospects.

Excerpts from this document—with only minor edits—offer eerie parallels to the very different set of circumstances the United States faces today in Iraq. In considering the Iraq war’s endgame, the U.S. government would be wise to review its own notes.
____________________________

Click for the rest.


Check it out: I'm reading a 1966 Quaker (Friends Society) study of the probable outcome of the Vietnam War. Its analysis is freakishly indentical to where we're headed in Iraq. It predicted with razor-sharp precision what would happen in 'Nam, and it foreshadows what will happen in Iraq. Scary.
0 Replies
 
Dmizer
 
  1  
Reply Tue 26 Jun, 2007 01:26 pm
@Drnaline,
The Iraq situation has been plagued with overly optomistic estimates (from the current administration) from the get-go. The administration needs to get down to "brass tax". A re-evaluation of what "success" means is in order. At this point a "stablized Democracy that will stand as a beacon of freedom" in the middle east is a pipe dream. I would like to see the U.S. exit from Iraq with a much greater degree of intelligence and execution, then that with which we entered. It may be as simple as setting a few criteria with which the Iraqi must achieve....for example, No Al Queida (spelling sucks I know), No genocide against Sunni's and a political / diplomatic international contingent to negotiate a lasting peace. If that means dividing up the country, then so be it. At this point the only solution that stands a chance is a diplomatic one. Unfortunately for that to happen we may have to wait till Bush is out of office. Bush is like a Pitcher that has been on the mound too long and has given up 4 home runs in a row, time to call for relief. No matter what his intentions may have been, they were executed with the grace of bull in a china shop.
92b16vx
 
  1  
Reply Tue 26 Jun, 2007 01:32 pm
@Dmizer,
Dmizer;23754 wrote:
The Iraq situation has been plagued with overly optomistic estimates (from the current administration) from the get-go. The administration needs to get down to "brass tax". A re-evaluation of what "success" means is in order. At this point a "stablized Democracy that will stand as a beacon of freedom" in the middle east is a pipe dream. I would like to see the U.S. exit from Iraq with a much greater degree of intelligence and execution, then that with which we entered. It may be as simple as setting a few criteria with which the Iraqi must achieve....for example, No Al Queida (spelling sucks I know), No genocide against Sunni's and a political / diplomatic international contingent to negotiate a lasting peace. If that means dividing up the country, then so be it. At this point the only solution that stands a chance is a diplomatic one. Unfortunately for that to happen we may have to wait till Bush is out of office. Bush is like a Pitcher that has been on the mound too long and has given up 4 home runs in a row, time to call for relief. No matter what his intentions may have been, they were executed with the grace of bull in a china shop.


Exactly. And if we get "more of the same" Bush lite Thompson, or Mr. National security Giuliani (who probably STILL hasn't even read the 9/11 report), we are not going to see anything resembling the correct handling of our current situation. You can bet your last dollar they will both pander to the $$$$.
0 Replies
 
Drnaline
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Jun, 2007 08:01 am
@Drnaline,
I think that holds true to all the candidates, including Paul.
92b16vx
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Jun, 2007 08:13 am
@Drnaline,
Drnaline;23848 wrote:
I think that holds true to all the candidates, including Paul.


Part one yea, about Dr. Paul, no. There's a reason they call him Dr. No. He doesn't care about the special interest. The backroom drugdeals like the **** going on with that amnesty, er, immigration reform bill don't fly with him, and he has a proven voting record to back it up.
0 Replies
 
Drnaline
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Jun, 2007 08:15 am
@Drnaline,
Doesn't mean he ain't in it for the money. He just flys under the raydar.
0 Replies
 
92b16vx
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Jun, 2007 08:23 am
@Drnaline,
He has never voted to raise taxes.
He has never voted for an unbalanced budget.
He has never voted for a federal restriction on gun ownership.
He has never voted to raise congressional pay.
He has never taken a government-paid junket.

He has never voted to increase the power of the executive branch.


He does not participate in the lucrative congressional pension program.
He returns a portion of his annual congressional office budget to the U.S. treasury every year.



You prove otherwise, and I'll believe it. Of course, I am safe in my position, because you will not be able to.
0 Replies
 
Drnaline
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Jun, 2007 05:59 pm
@Drnaline,
Never say never. Even if i did prove it you still wouldn't believe it.
92b16vx
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Jun, 2007 07:05 pm
@Drnaline,
Drnaline;23931 wrote:
Never say never. Even if i did prove it you still wouldn't believe it.


But I don't have to worry about that. Don't be all "emo" and butthurt because the candidate I support actually has principles, and cares about America.
0 Replies
 
Drnaline
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Jun, 2007 07:15 pm
@Drnaline,
In your opinion he has principle's and cares. Support all you like, while he laughs all the way to the bank.
Pinochet73
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Jun, 2007 07:37 pm
@Drnaline,
Israel and its supporters in the U.S. have always wanted U.S. boots on the ground in the Middle East. Now that they're firmly planted in Iraq, they're going to stay there for a long, long time. I'm not blaming the Jews. Nevertheless, they have had a huge impact on this particular aspect of our foreign policy. Besides, they're right, for the most part.
0 Replies
 
92b16vx
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Jun, 2007 07:57 pm
@Drnaline,
Drnaline;23955 wrote:
In your opinion he has principle's and cares. Support all you like, while he laughs all the way to the bank.


Prove it. Come on big talker, here's your moment to write that check and see if you can back it up. Put up, or shut up.
0 Replies
 
Drnaline
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Jun, 2007 08:15 pm
@Drnaline,
I'll do neither, It's my opinion. I need prove nothing to you. I will make you a wager on if Paul gets to the big show? If you feel so inclined why don't you back up your words, bigshot?
Quote:
He has never voted to raise taxes.
He has never voted for an unbalanced budget.
He has never voted for a federal restriction on gun ownership.
He has never voted to raise congressional pay.
He has never taken a government-paid junket.
He has never voted to increase the power of the executive branch.


He does not participate in the lucrative congressional pension program.
He returns a portion of his annual congressional office budget to the U.S. treasury every year.


You prove otherwise, and I'll believe it. Of course, I am safe in my position, because you will not be able to.
I don't have to prove otherwise, you on the other hand should back up yours don't you think? Time to put up or shut up? Is this your opinion or is it fact? Till i see something otherwise it looks like opinion to me.
0 Replies
 
92b16vx
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Jun, 2007 08:36 pm
@Drnaline,
Just like I thought...you got nothing, as always.
0 Replies
 
Drnaline
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Jun, 2007 08:43 pm
@Drnaline,
Oh this post is full of facts huh?^^^^^^
Care to back up the post quoted? Na didn't think so!
0 Replies
 
92b16vx
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Jun, 2007 09:06 pm
@Drnaline,
Act more typical please. Make an accusation, and then tell someone else to prove it's wrong? LOL, burden of proof is on you, but hey, we all know you aren't up to it, and have written a check your mind can not cash, so don't feel to emo lil' buckaroo.
Drnaline
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Jun, 2007 09:19 pm
@92b16vx,
92b16vx;23998 wrote:
Act more typical please. Make an accusation, and then tell someone else to prove it's wrong? LOL, burden of proof is on you, but hey, we all know you aren't up to it, and have written a check your mind can not cash, so don't feel to emo lil' buckaroo.
You made the assertion that Ron Paul never. Back it up, hotshot? The burden is on you to prove he "never?" Never is a big word huh?
0 Replies
 
 

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