4
   

Oz Election Thread #4 - Gillard's Labor

 
 
Deckland
 
  1  
Reply Mon 30 Aug, 2010 12:58 pm
Going by the massive amount of informal votes, maybe going back to the poles is not a bad idea to see if a decisive vote can be obtained. People who voted informally as a protest, may be satisfied that they have made their point.
Time will tell I guess.

Eorl
 
  1  
Reply Mon 30 Aug, 2010 03:36 pm
@Deckland,
I agree. The swing to informal was much greater than the swing to coalition. (Good one, Mark Latham, you must be thrilled) I imagine a new poll would favour the government. Recent behaviour might play that way as well.
hingehead
 
  1  
Reply Mon 30 Aug, 2010 03:48 pm
@Eorl,
Agreed. That high an informal vote is not a good thing. Apparently it was particularly high in the Western Subs of Sydney. which is mark latham country.
0 Replies
 
Eorl
 
  1  
Reply Mon 30 Aug, 2010 06:18 pm
As to the new 2PP figure the coalition are so excited about;

Antony Green wrote:
Quote:
So what's going on here? Why is the AEC publishing an incomplete 2-party preferred vote?
The answer is that the AEC is always under pressure to produce a 2-party preferred vote on election night, and it has unwisely given in to providing such a number, even though AEC does not have the data available to produce such a number.
0 Replies
 
hingehead
 
  1  
Reply Mon 30 Aug, 2010 09:38 pm
The SMH has a poll on whether the indies should take as long as they like deciding or not.

http://tinyurl.com/2fsrgn7

Guess what? It's split 50/50 (no joke!)
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Tue 31 Aug, 2010 07:13 am
@hingehead,
Quote:
Guess what? It's split 50/50 (no joke!)


Smile

I'm not surprised, hinge.

I listened to Jon Faine's morning program (ABC radio 774) today & was not really surprised at the amount of favourable listener feedback about the independents. A lot of folk appear to be quite impressed by them & very supportive of their efforts. (Not Katter, especially.)

It was amusing to see Tony Abbott playing the heir apparent, waiting in the wings for his big moment, for the benefit of the media & the independents today. God knows what shenanigans we'll see from him tomorrow & the day after, & the day after ... Julia, by contrast, appeared to be quite calm and collected at her press gallery address. A very "in control" performance. I was pretty impressed.

Interesting that Andrew Wilkie looks like being the first to declare his choice of the two parties first. Very shrewd of him, I think. And I think his choice will probably be a fairly good indicator of how Windsor & Oakeshott will lean.
A thought: what about Wilkie as speaker of the house? He wouldn't be a bad choice at all, I'd say.
Deckland
 
  1  
Reply Tue 31 Aug, 2010 11:56 am
Ah well, the "demands" have started ....
Quote:
Give us $1b a year: Katter

http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/images/uploadedfiles/editorial/pictures/2010/08/31/manifesto.jpg
http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/article/2010/09/01/166911_news.html
hingehead
 
  1  
Reply Tue 31 Aug, 2010 03:14 pm
@msolga,
Quote:
A thought: what about Wilkie as speaker of the house? He wouldn't be a bad choice at all, I'd say.


That's not a bad thought at all - but has he come out and said he doesn't want it like the other four? Also, assuming he supports labor, will they want him without a vote (except in the 50/50s)? I'm assuming too that the speaker has no avenue to present private members bills? Def one to watch though!
0 Replies
 
hingehead
 
  1  
Reply Tue 31 Aug, 2010 03:24 pm
@Deckland,
I wonder if that's 10% of WA mining royalties too?

Coord general? He publicly bad mouths public servants all the time (and as I've reported before won't take their calls when they've got support for his electorate).

Not sure bananas are doing that badly. I'm pretty sure I've heard multinationals are looking at leasing plantations here (out of cyclone alley) in partnership with traditional owners. Maybe he wants a tariff on bananas grown in Leichardt?

Dams. Hmmm.

Is the Copper String project that alt energy power project from the coast to MT Isa he was rabbiting about at the NPC?

Is this ambit claim or bottom line? I'm thinking Katter's support is pretty meaningless to either side - he's only their for a quarter of the votes anyway and any dummy spits he has in terms of supply and no-confidence motions would be overridden by other, more outwardly stable, independents.

Which
0 Replies
 
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Tue 31 Aug, 2010 05:05 pm
Crikey, this is a surprise! Surprised
But I can only assume he'll be just as tough on Abbott.
This man drives a hard bargain! :


Quote:
Key MP shuns offer from Labor
Andrew Darby, Michelle Grattan and Tim Colebatch
September 1, 2010


Key independent MP Andrew Wilkie, has announced he remains unconvinced about backing Julia Gillard or Tony Abbott.

JULIA Gillard has failed in an initial bid to win the backing of key Tasmanian independent MP Andrew Wilkie, as negotiations intensify over who will form the next Australian government.

Hours after Ms Gillard yesterday pitched a parliamentary reform agenda aimed at securing the support of non-aligned MPs, Mr Wilkie said Labor's written response to a list of issues he had raised was unacceptable.

Rural independents' decision is likely by Friday

''I've now received a formal proposal from the ALP for my support,'' Mr Wilkie told The Age in Hobart last night. ''It's confidential, and unacceptable to me,'' he said. ''I'm now waiting for one from the Coalition.'' ...<cont>


http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/key-mp-shuns-offer-from-labor-20100831-14fk2.html?autostart=1
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Tue 31 Aug, 2010 05:32 pm
Yikes. Another nasty surprise. Surprised
(What is this? Black Wednesday? Wink )
I'd thought Family First was dead & buried. Well that's what we'd been informed in the analysts. But not quite so, apparently.
I hope Antony's prediction is right!:


Quote:
Family First still in with a chance for Senate place
Jacob Saulwick
September 1, 2010


Senator Steve Fielding could yet be returned to Parliament.

For all the delay and confusion about the make-up of the lower house, the election result for the Senate is mostly straightforward, with results tallied in almost all states.

... In Victoria, however, one position remains up for grabs, and it has come down to a three-cornered contest between the Family First senator and candidates for the Liberals and the Democratic Labor Party.
http://images.theage.com.au/2009/08/12/677074/stevefieldingcrop-420x0.jpg
Senator Steve Fielding. Photo: Glen McCurtayne

With almost 80 per cent of the Victorian Senate vote counted, the DLP candidate, John Madigan, holds the spot and the political obituaries for Senator Fielding have already started.

But, partly because of the complicated nature of the voting system, the winner of the final Victorian spot will not be known for at least a week.

The ABC's election analyst, Antony Green, said he favoured the Liberal senator Julian McGauran to hold on.

''Either Fielding or the DLP or the Coalition will win that last seat, and I'd say the Coalition,'' Mr Green said.


''As the vote is counted, we've got postals and absent votes yet to be counted, the Liberal vote will be increased slightly as a proportion and the minor party vote will drop,'' he said.

Under the Senate voting system, candidates with the lowest number of votes are progressively knocked out and their preferences fed to candidates with more votes.

On the current vote, Senator Fielding stands to be knocked out in the 22nd round of counting. But should he bridge a 3500 vote gap to Mr Madigan, he stands a good chance of using his DLP preferences to vault over the remaining candidates. ..<cont>


http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/family-first-still-in-with-a-chance-for-senate-place-20100831-14fnc.html?autostart=1
hingehead
 
  1  
Reply Tue 31 Aug, 2010 05:36 pm
@msolga,
Wow. DLP or Family First. What a battle of the irrelevant.
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Tue 31 Aug, 2010 05:38 pm
@hingehead,
Yes. Never thought I'd be praying for a Liberal victory! (Oh I hope Antony's right!) Wink

What do you make of Wilkie's response to Gillard (above) , hinge?
Eorl
 
  1  
Reply Tue 31 Aug, 2010 05:47 pm
@msolga,
I think Wilke should have withheld his response until he'd seen the coalition's response. The coalition now have the advantage of adjusting their response accordingly. If they get Wilke, and he declares for Libs ahead of the others, there's nothing stable on the table for Labor.
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Tue 31 Aug, 2010 05:51 pm
@Eorl,
My hunch is that he'll use the Libs' response as a (further) bargaining tool with Labor, Eorl.
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Tue 31 Aug, 2010 06:12 pm
@msolga,
Thinking about Wilkie a bit more ...

Perhaps he'll end up knocking back the Liberals' response, too? (I really can't see the Libs being more accommodating than Labor to his requests.)
Maybe he'll remain genuinely non-aligned?
My understanding is that this was his initial position.
Or perhaps he'll keep bargaining hard, with both sides?

All the same, I'd be very interested to know what the sticking points with Labor's response were!
0 Replies
 
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Tue 31 Aug, 2010 06:30 pm
Quote:
Labor, Greens strike alliance deal for stable government
* From: The Australian
* September 01, 2010 10:14AM


http://resources1.news.com.au/images/2010/09/01/1225912/689249-greens-labor-alliance.jpg
Julia Gillard prepares to shake hands with Greens leader Bob Brown on their alliance. Picture: Ray Strange Source: The Australian

THE Greens have struck a formal deal with Labor to govern but the fate of Australia's next prime minister still lies with the independents.

"The Greens will ensure supply and oppose any motions of no-confidence in the government from other parties or MPs,'' Senator Brown said at a media conference in Canberra a short time ago.

"Labor will work with the Greens to deliver improved transparency and integrity to parliament."


The Greens-ALP deal includes a climate change committee to consider a price on carbon, immediate reform to political donations, a full parliamentary debate on Afghanistan, a leaders debate commission and agreement on a private members' bill to debate above-the-line voting.

When parliament is sitting, the prime minister will meet Greens leader Bob Brown and their lone lower house MP Adam Bandt each week.

The deal does not include a cabinet position for a Green.

And there is no agreement from Labor to set a carbon price, with Senator Brown today denying the Greens had put that demand on hold in order to ensure the trio of country independents could reach an agreement with Labor.

He said the proposed climate change committee would be ready to go by the end of the month, describing it as an amalgam of Greens and Labor policy.


The make-up of the committee had not yet been confirmed. And when asked if the committee meant Julia Gillard's much-derided citizens assembly on climate had been scrapped, Senator Brown said: "That's a question for the Prime Minister." ...<cont>


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/labor-greens-strike-alliance-deal-for-stable-government/story-fn59niix-1225912672100
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Tue 31 Aug, 2010 06:39 pm
@msolga,
Yep, it's true.
Given that that last report was from the Australian, I thought I'd better check. Wink
(The ABC now has both Labor & the Libs on 73 seats each, too ...):


http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/01/2999219.htm
hingehead
 
  1  
Reply Tue 31 Aug, 2010 06:53 pm
@msolga,
Bloody hell Olgs, I read that thinking a decision had been made! So still we wait.
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Tue 31 Aug, 2010 06:55 pm
@hingehead,
Yeah.
I guess this formalizes the "marriage arrangements"?


<tap, tap, tap>


Gotta go out now. Keep an eye on Andrew Wilkie, OK? Wink
0 Replies
 
 

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