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Oz Election Thread #4 - Gillard's Labor

 
 
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jun, 2010 08:33 pm
@msolga,
Of course, I meant to say:

Who the hell do these mining companies think they are?

Oops, my brain was defrosting when I wrote that.
Still is.
(It's absolutely freezing here in Melbourne!)
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jun, 2010 11:27 pm
@msolga,
Neutral

Things are not sounding good.

Looks like Team Gillard is about to cave in to the mining bosses.

Kinda makes Kevin Rudd look tough & determined on the issue. <sigh>



Quote:
... Minerals bosses have been in talks with the Prime Minister and her senior ministers today and it is believed the government is ready to back down on its resources super profits tax.

..................

In what insiders are describing as a make or break day in the mining tax saga, a meeting has been underway involving Marius Kloppers of BHP, David Peever of Rio Tinto, Peter Freyberg, from Xstrata, Ms Gillard, the Treasurer, Wayne Swan, and the Resources Minister, Martin Ferguson.


The miners are refusing to back away from their key demands that the tax does not apply to existing projects and that the 40 per cent headline rate not apply to all commodities.

Under former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, these conditions were non-negotiable, but Ms Gillard is keen to shut down the issue to clear a path to call an election and is prepared to give ground on both.

One source said the Labor government was prepared to cede "pretty much everything" to end the saga.
......


http://www.smh.com.au/national/make-or-break-pm-set-to--back-down-on-miners-tax-20100630-zkgd.html?autostart=1
jeeprs
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jun, 2010 11:43 pm
@msolga,
steady. I think there will be a bit of brinksmans (womans) ship. I think Gov will offer true concessions - politics being the art of compromise and all - but if the mining bosses won't play ball, THEN call an election to get a mandate for the issue on the grounds that 'we have been reasonable and they won't play ball'.

But we'll know by the 7:30 Report, I reckon.
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jun, 2010 11:47 pm
@jeeprs,
It galls me that there was (apparently) a deal stitched up with Rudd & now these opportunists want to extract even more ... or else.

I think Gillard should call their bluff.

All of us (ordinary people) will be the losers if she doesn't.
jeeprs
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jun, 2010 04:19 am
@msolga,
I think that is the way a lot of us think. The mining industry has to come to the table on it. If Gillard makes some concessions, and they knock it back, she will be in a very strong position to take it to the electorate on the basis of 'the fair go', which would be a surefire winner in the Aussie electorate.Very Happy
0 Replies
 
dadpad
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jun, 2010 05:59 am
I am reading a subtle subtext into comments by mining companys that they accept there will need to be a tax on mining of some kind. What is yet to be resolved is how this tax is sructured on profits? Where in the extraction chain it is to be applied and what level of tax will be applied.
I believe the mining companies will accept a tax at the point where ore comes out of the ground based on assay tests.
I'm still not sure about the rest. less than the 40 % rudd proposed you can be sure.
I wonder how much influence mining had with the labour power brokers on Rudds dismisal.
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jun, 2010 06:08 am
@dadpad,
Quote:
I wonder how much influence mining had with the labour power brokers on Rudds dismisal.


Hard to know, exactly, dp.
If we are to believe a number of recent media reports, Rudd & the mining bosses had reached, or were very close to reaching, a compromise agreement on the mining tax.
msolga
 
  2  
Reply Wed 30 Jun, 2010 07:48 pm
Meanwhile, back at the Howard residence ...:

http://images.smh.com.au/2010/07/01/1664275/dysoncod-620x0.jpg
0 Replies
 
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jun, 2010 07:53 pm
Meanwhile, in Canberra, looks like these talks may be taking quite a bit more time than initially expected ..:

http://images.theage.com.au/2010/06/30/1662048/Moir_Gillard-600x400.jpg

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/resource-deal-near-as-40-per-cent-rate-shifts/story-e6frg6nf-1225886416050
0 Replies
 
jeeprs
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jun, 2010 07:54 pm
@msolga,
Quote:
If we are to believe a number of recent media reports, Rudd & the mining bosses had reached, or were very close to reaching, a compromise agreement on the mining tax.


I am sure not. Two weeks ago, Twiggy Forester had made some encouraging remarks to the press, and then Rudd poured cold water on it, saying that any kind of agreement was possibly months away. It was one of the events that led to his downfall. You could see Rudd's whole strategy - he wanted to pick a fight which could show that he had backbone, after his capitulation on the ETS. He calculated that the people, and the Unions, would back him over the miners. And I think he calculated wrongly, but by this stage, he had just stopped listening to anyone. Rudd V The World. And Rudd lost. As he deserved to.
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jun, 2010 08:01 pm
@jeeprs,
You may well be right, jeeprs, who knows?
I'm basing my comment on a number of (very) recent news articles. (Sorry, insufficient time to locate them now.)
But whether they were correct or not (once again) who knows?
Unless the details are actually released we might never know for sure what Rudd achieved with the mining hard-heads.
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jun, 2010 10:25 pm
@msolga,
Ha. A red headline in the AGE online news!
Big story! Smile
I'm on the run here & haven't the time to stop & properly take the available details in.
But what do others here think?:


Quote:
Mining tax breakthrough
MALCOLM MAIDEN
July 1, 2010 - 2:01PM/the AGE


The Gillard government and Australia's big three miners have made significant progress in talks about a resources tax compromise and are now on the brink of an agreement that would end one of the biggest government-private sector brawls in history.

It's understood that BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Xstrata have agreed with the government now on the key elements of a new resources tax structure, including the creation of a new trigger point for the imposition of the tax, set at the 10-year Commonwealth bond yield plus 7 per cent.

With Prime Minister Julia Gillard in far north Queensland today for the funeral of killed Afghanistan soldier private Ben Chuck, the formal announcement of a deal could be held over.

The proposed new trigger point for the ''super profits'' tax to kick in is currently equal to a rate of about 12 per cent, around about the average cost of capital in the mining industry. The original tax cut in above the bond yield only, currently just over about 5 per cent.

The government is also believed to have resolved the miners' concerns that the tax will be retrospective in its application, by agreeing that the miners can inject their existing assets including the huge Pilbara iron ore mines and the rich east coast coal mines into the revised tax regime at market value. This is a huge concession.

Retrospectivity, the rate at which the tax is imposed and the headline rate — set originally at 40 per cent — were the three key mining sector objections to proposed new tax. It was unclear at midday, east coast time, what deal had been struck on the headline rate, but the government is believed to have also given ground on this point, with people with knowledge of the talks saying the two sides were "nearly there" on an agreement.....


http://www.theage.com.au/business/mining-tax-breakthrough-20100701-zp5z.html
dlowan
 
  2  
Reply Wed 30 Jun, 2010 10:48 pm
@msolga,
As long as the buggers pay a decent amount I'm good to go.
jeeprs
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jun, 2010 11:08 pm
@msolga,
too early to say, someone said they are not announcing it today because Gillard has had to go to NQ for a soldier's burial. But I reckon they will announce it Friday, and then call the election for August. Strike when the iron is hot. I noted Abbott's blatant opportunism again yesterday in his Mental Health announcement. Not that it isn't a worthy cause, but it is solely driven by electoral appeal, again, rather than any actual principles. Anyway Gillard is going to carve him up over the next 6 weeks.
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Thu 1 Jul, 2010 02:59 am
@jeeprs,
Yep, I know it's not the final deal, but that's as much information as has been leaked out of the meeting to the press at the moment. I just wondered what (if anything) people might deduce from it.

Around the same time, Bob Brown (the Greens) had this to say about the outcome of the mining tax negotiations:


Quote:
Greens will vet mining tax deal in Senate: Bob Brown
The Australian

GREENS leader Bob Brown warned today that any deal on the resources super-profits tax struck behind closed doors could be amended in the Senate.

Senator Brown predicted a “cave-in” by the Gillard Government to the mining industry as he responded in Sydney to reports Rio Tinto boss Sam Walsh has demanded an iron-clad guarantee from Julia Gillard that any deal struck in the current negotiations will remain intact after the federal election.

“There's a small thing called democracy here, and a big thing called the Australian parliament,” Senator Brown said.

“Unless Labor gets control of both houses, and that's not going to happen, the agreement will be subject to parliamentary scrutiny.”


He said the ability of the Greens to improve such a package had been “established” in negotiations over the Government's economic stimulus package last year.

“We saved the country from recession in the process,” he said.

Senator Brown, who wants part of the estimated $12 billion windfall from the tax paid into an infrastructure fund, said the focus of the Greens “is to see the Australian public gets a dividend out of this, not just the mining barons”.


“We've got an eye on the key factor, which is the $12 billion in the forward estimates that's going to come from this tax,” he said.

“We don't want to see that $12 billion reduced. Each billion that goes back to the mining industry, and will in substantial part flow overseas, is a billion that has to be made up for in some other way, against the public interest.”


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/greens-will-vet-mining-tax-deal-in-senate-bob-brown/story-e6frgczf-1225886704840
jeeprs
 
  1  
Reply Thu 1 Jul, 2010 03:23 am
@msolga,
I heard Bob Brown's radio grab on it, but he would not have been happy unless the tax was raised, I thought. Nothing he said really grabbed me.

I still reckon Gillard is going to announce the settlement and then the election in short order. And when she does, we will find that the Labor Party has a lot of very good stories to sell, and a very strong campaign platform. Actually I don't know why I'm feeling so bullish about it but we shouldn't have to wait long to find out.
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Thu 1 Jul, 2010 03:43 am
@jeeprs,
Quote:

I still reckon Gillard is going to announce the settlement and then the election in short order.


Well the earlier the election, the better, for the ALP, definitely. Honeymoon periods don't last forever. Besides late elections aren't at all popular with the electorate. And it would (very obviously!) be beneficial for Labor not to have those pesky mining company ads all over our TV screens during the campaign. Wink

What do you think all those good Labor stories will be, jeeprs? Just curious to hear what you think.
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Thu 1 Jul, 2010 03:52 am
@dlowan,
Quote:
As long as the buggers pay a decent amount I'm good to go.


Any notion of what a decent amount could be, Deb?
Dadpad?

I'm afraid I'm rather at sea with these details.
0 Replies
 
jeeprs
 
  1  
Reply Thu 1 Jul, 2010 04:14 am
@msolga,
The commentators have been saying for months that apart from the insulation debacle and the mining stand-off, the Rudd Government actually had a number of pretty good things to talk about, but that Rudd wasn't getting the message out, and the electorate had lost interest in what he had to say. Now if Gillard can come to a settlement on the mining tax, blow the dust off the climate change issue with some kind of announcement, and then package all the other stuff that has been done - I forget what it is, but no doubt we'll be hearing about it soon - then Labor are suddenly going to be back in the game. With a vengeance.

I think Abbott is the one looking rattled now. He has never been a match for Gillard. She makes him look like a schoolboy, and he knows it.
0 Replies
 
dadpad
 
  1  
Reply Thu 1 Jul, 2010 05:47 am
Quote:
The proposed new trigger point for the ''super profits'' tax to kick in is currently equal to a rate of about 12 per cent, around about the average cost of capital in the mining industry


This is very concerning. I dont believe the ming lobby would have agreed so quickly unless there was a win there somewhere for mining.

Costs involved in setting up a mine are tax deductible. Looks to me like its a long term payback for the taxpayer
0 Replies
 
 

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