Australia's hung Parliament explained
Updated Mon Aug 23, 2010 2:31pm AEST
This is the first hung Parliament at a Commonwealth level in Australia since 1940.
As Australia stares down the barrel of a hung Parliament, here's a look at what it all means.
What is a hung Parliament?
A hung Parliament results when no party has more than half the MPs in the House of Representatives, which means no party can pass laws without gaining support from other parties or independent members of the House.
That support could come in the form of a formal coalition, or the governing party may have to negotiate with the other parties to get laws passed.
How did we get here?
There are 150 members of the House of Representatives, so to have an outright majority one of the parties needs to hold 76 seats. Neither Labor nor the Coalition looks likely to reach that point.
Instead, they'll have to negotiate with the three sitting independents who have been re-elected - Tony Windsor, Bob Katter and Rob Oakeshott - as well as the Greens' Adam Bandt, who has won the seat of Melbourne.
A fourth independent, Andrew Wilkie, may come into the mix, as he is locked in a tight battle with Labor for the seat of Denison in Tasmania.
It's not clear just yet exactly how many seats Labor and the Coalition will hold (because it's not certain who has won a few very close races) but they both look set to fall three or four seats short of a majority.
How long will it take before the seats are finalised?
ABC election analyst Antony Green says it could take up until Tuesday August 31 before the closest seats, in particular Hasluck, are decided. This is due to the timeframes required for counting postal and absentee votes.
What happens now?
Essentially, a whole lot of horse-trading.
Both Labor and the Coalition will attempt to convince the independents and Mr Bandt to provide them with the support needed to get the required 76 votes on the floor of Parliament.
This could involve winning the support of individuals separately, or as a bloc. Mr Windsor, Mr Katter and Mr Oakeshott plan to meet before deciding what to do next.
Who is running the country while this happens?
Julia Gillard remains the caretaker prime minister and her Government remains in the caretaker role it has played since the election was called.
This will remain the case until one side of politics can convince Governor-General Quentin Bryce it has the numbers to form a government.
What is the Governor-General's role?
Constitutional experts say there's nothing explicit about hung Parliaments in Australia's Constitution. Instead, these situations are resolved via a set of unwritten rules originating in the United Kingdom. Despite being unwritten, these conventions are considered clear and well-established.
Under these conventions, the governor-general acts on the advice of the caretaker prime minister.
If Ms Gillard is able to win enough support from the independents and Mr Bandt, she would advise Ms Bryce that she intended to form a government. Ms Bryce would then swear in Ms Gillard and her ministers, and Labor would test its support on the floor of Parliament via a no-confidence motion brought by the Opposition.
The fresh government would need the support of 76 members to survive the vote.
If, on the other hand, it becomes clear that the Coalition has won enough support to form a government, the usual course of events would be for Ms Gillard to resign and advise Ms Bryce to send for Liberal leader Tony Abbott.
Is this situation unprecedented?
This is the first hung Parliament at a Commonwealth level in Australia since 1940.
On that occasion, Robert Menzies was able to form and lead a coalition government, but subsequently lost support and was succeeded by Arthur Fadden in mid-1941. Later that year, two independents switched their support to Labor and John Curtin became prime minister.
However, Australia has had quite a bit of experience with hung parliaments and minority governments at the state level:
* Most recently, the 2010 Tasmanian election resulted in a hung Parliament, with Labor forming a minority government with two Greens as members of Cabinet;
* The 2008 Western Australian election also resulted in a minority government; on that occasion, the Liberal Party under Colin Barnett formed government with the support of the National Party and three independents;
* South Australian Premier Mike Rann led a minority government after the 2002 election in that state, having recruited an independent MP and a National MP into his Cabinet room;
* In the 1990s, Nick Greiner led a minority government in New South Wales, notably relying on the support of Tony Windsor, one of the federal independents now in a position to help decide the fate of national politics;
* Victoria and Queensland have also had minority governments in recent decades.
Why should a handful of independents get to decide who forms our government?
Under Australia's system of democracy, governments are formed based on the make-up of Parliament. Simply put, the likely make-up of our next Parliament means a government can only be formed with the support of the independents and one Green MP.
What do they base their decisions on?
Each member of Parliament can choose to support either side of politics for whatever reasons they want to.
Though there may be pressure to take into account which party wins the most seats or has the highest primary or two-party preferred vote, they're under no obligation to do so.
Greens MP Adam Bandt indicated before the election that he wouldn't support a Coalition government, so his intentions are clearer than most.
The three sitting independents - Mr Windsor, Mr Katter and Mr Oakeshott - have indicated they plan to meet behind closed doors before making any decisions.
Associate Professor Anne Twomey from the University of Sydney Law School says independent MPs and small parties who find themselves in a position of power via a hung Parliament are "usually very interested in making government more accountable to the people and so those are the sorts of conditions they tend to put on (their support)".
In the past, sweeteners for independents' local constituencies have also come into play. Broadband and regional telecommunications are likely to be talking points between the independents and the major parties.
Is there a chance we'll have another election?
Ms Twomey says there's a strong convention against having a new election immediately after the old one.
"The convention is the Parliament should be given a reasonable time to run and to sort out a government," she says.
However, if neither Labor nor the Coalition is able to marshall a parliamentary majority and survive a vote of no confidence, Ms Bryce may be left with no other option.
How long can this drag on?
Technically, the deadline for ending the impasse is whenever Parliament sits.
The Constitution says Parliament must sit within 30 days of the return of the election writs. The last possible date for the return of the writs is October 27, meaning Parliament would have to sit in November.
In reality, there will be considerable pressure to end the deadlock much sooner than that. However, any solution seems unlikely before final counting wraps up during the week starting August 29.
Where does the Senate come into this?
The make-up of the House of Representatives determines who is able to form government. The Greens will hold the balance of power in the new Senate. So whoever ends up forming a minority government faces the prospect of negotiating with their partners in the Lower House and the Greens in the Upper House to get laws passed.
