Oz Election Thread #4 - Gillard's Labor

@realjohnboy,

Morning, Deb & RJB

msolga is rushing around getting ready for work. No time to stop. Sorry.
So much to say & no time to say it!
How frustrating!
Still watching/following the ABC's coverage as I rush about. (Stephen Conroy. Ugh.)

Hinge should be here any minute. I'm certain he'll have lots to say! (Hope you've cheered up a bit, possum.)

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ON the airtrain into brisbane for a work thing. I would be working but our email system is crap at the moment.

Bob Katter is quite mad, with an ego that's disturbing. He had massive dummy spit at the airport just post the London bombings because security personnel asked him to remove his hat along the lines of 'Do you know who I am?' What public figure would not see it their responsibility to set an example? I know that he has claimed to be indigenous (a shock to his parents) and that when the govt reps at the height of the GFC response tried to contact him about how the people of Kennedy could tap into govt programs (like BER) he wouldn't return calls, and in the end they gave up.

It says little for the people of Kennedy that he's been there so long. Perhaps if Katter is serious about attracting more people to Kennedy he should consider resigning. Remember that in the state parliament the same area still had one nation reps up to the last election. Would you move there? Cue banjos.

Needless to say only Bob benefits from Bob's re-election.

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It scares me that I actually understand a bit of what you are talking about.

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@hingehead,

My commiserations, hinge.
I'd be feeling pretty crappy if Bob Katter was my local member, too.
No one wants to be represented by an egotistical fruitcake.
Half your luck!

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@realjohnboy,

Quote:

It scares me that I actually understand a bit of what you are talking about.

Yes, RJB?
Want to tell us a bit about it?
I'm interested.

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Just got home. Checking on the latest figures:

(76 seats required for victory)

Julia Gillard
Labor
73 seats
Predicted 73

Tony Abbott
Coalition
69 seats
Predicted 73

78.3% counted.
Updated Mon Aug 23 03:20PM
Party - % Vote -Swing - Won - Predict
Labor 38.0 -5.4 72 73
Coalition 43.9 +1.8 69 73
Green 11.5 +3.7 1 1
Others 6.6 -0.1 3 3

(Where's nimh when a girl needs a graph? Wink

)

http://www.abc.net.au/news/

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Look who lost his seat!!!! Surprised

Wilson Tuckey (aka "Ironbar Tuckey) is gone!

At last, at last, at last!!!!

Let's celebrate!

Very Happy

:

Quote:

Tuckey is one of the most controversial figures in Australian federal politics. In 1967, while a publican in Carnarvon, he was convicted of assault after striking an Aboriginal man with a length of steel cable.[1] It was alleged that the man was being pinned to the ground at the time.[2] He has had the nickname "Ironbar" ever since.

In 1986 Tuckey taunted the then Labor Treasurer, Paul Keating, in Parliament about a former girlfriend called "Christine," leading Keating to call him "a piece of criminal garbage." [3] In one notorious exchange, Tuckey told Keating: "You are an idiot, you are a hopeless nong", to which Keating replied: "Shut up! Sit down and shut up, you pig... Why do you not shut up, you clown?... This man has a criminal intellect... this clown continues to interject in perpetuity." [4] A furious Keating demanded that newly installed Liberal Party leader John Howard discipline Tuckey, but he refused. Keating then promised to make Howard "wear his leadership like a crown of thorns", and the relationship between Keating and Howard, previously a civil one, deteriorated to the point where the two men refused to speak to one another.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilson_Tuckey

Quote:

ABC Video: Tuckey ousted after 30 years
Source: ABC News
Published: Monday, August 23, 2010 11:29 AEST
Expires: Sunday, November 21, 2010 11:29 AEST

Veteran Liberal MP Wilson Tuckey has been defeated in the Western Australian seat of O'Connor, ending one of the longest - and most controversial - parliamentary careers.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2010/08/23/2990625.htm

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Just saw this, in the AGE.
Are those punters crazy?
This would be the last gasp for the Labor Party.
Someone please tell me that there's not one iota of credibility to this! :

Quote:

Bill Shorten, the former union boss who orchestrated the execution of Kevin Rudd from the Labor leadership, has been backed by punters to lead the party to the next election.

While hundreds of punters sweat on the final election outcome, Mr Shorten, the Parliamentary Secretary for Disabilities, has been installed as the clear favourite with bookies to topple Prime Minister Julia Gillard, who is fighting to form a minority government.

Leading betting agency Centrebet has Mr Shorten, a Victorian Right figure who is married to the daughter of Governor-General Quentin Bryce, a $2.70 favourite, with Ms Gillard at $4.10. ...

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/odds-shorten-on-next-labor-leader-20100823-13d2g.html

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A few random thoughts as I mull over this election & all of us wait to see which way the independents will swing. These are just my opinions. Please feel free to discuss, disagree ... a bit of discussion would be great, actually ...

* I am reading all these comments from Abbott & other conservatives saying that Labor has been "disgraced" & is "unfit to govern" ... & that the electorate clearly favours the Coalition. I think this is pure propaganda & wishful thinking on the part of Abbott & co. The major beneficiaries of the disenchantment with Labor's campaign were the Greens .. plus a few independents who received endorsement from their constituents for a variety of different reasons.

* I am hearing Bill Shorten & others of his ilk claim that it was "cabinet leaks" (meaning Rudd?) which undermined Labor's campaign. It is interesting to see these luminaries finally show their faces & argue their case after their strategy failed. To put it as simply as I can, you don't depose a sitting prime minister, like they did, unless you have a far better option to put to the voters. Which they didn't. Labor's post-Rudd campaign looked even more wishy-washy, more cobbled together, more accident prone than Rudd's prime minister-ship looked to the electorate. I say this as hardly a "fan" of Rudd's leadership of Labor. In a nutshell, the the plotters of the Right stuffed up. They miscalculated.

* We are not the USA. We do not elect our prime ministers in the same way that the US elects its president. Our prime minister is the person who heads the party which wins an election. The emphasis on Gillard (as a change from Rudd) was misguided. That was no compensation for a lack of inspiring policy, which failed to differentiate between the Liberal & Labor parties.

* I'm wondering about Julia Gillard's political future. I think it was a profound lack of good judgment to go long with with the last minute deposement of Rudd. Especially without some far better policies to offer to the electorate. However, she has been a very positive force in this Labor government (as deputy leader). I hope she doesn't lose out too badly as a result of this fiasco. I still believe she still has much to offer & could not fail to learn from this experience. But I'm also wondering how Australian voters will see her in the future, after this.

* As for the Liberals. What did they really have to offer Australians in this campaign? What does Abbott actually have going for him as a prime minister? His minders can't hold his hand & script his words, minute by minute, as they have during this campaign. Where would he have been in this campaign without Laurie Oaks' convenient leaks? Without the crazy Latham distractions grabbing the headlines? I think the reality is that many Australians have little idea of what a Liberal government, in this point in time, would actually stand for. The thought of waking up to prime minister Abbott is truly shocking. It was unthinkable 6 months ago. For very good reasons!

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(Sorry, I can't stop talking ...)

But I think we should not fail to remember that the Rudd landslide victory at the last election was very much an expression of disgust & revulsion to Howard government policies. We wanted something much better & Labor was our alternative, our hope for that.
We are living in different times now.

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@msolga,

Quote:

I'd be feeling pretty crappy if Bob Katter was my local membe

Misunderstanding Olgs - Bob Katter is not my local member, although the border of Kennedy isn't that far away. I'm in the land of the Entsch that stole christmas.

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@realjohnboy,

Quote:

It scares me that I actually understand a bit of what you are talking about.

That is indeed scary RJB. Join us! (But don't come in a boat). I was talking to an ex-pat pom yesterday who said the nationalisation test is easy. 'What is a democracy?' 'What colour is the Australian flag?' Nothing about Don Bradman's batting average. Although he did say that when he left the room it was still full of 'new chums' scratching their heads.

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@msolga,

Scattergun reply Olga.

Yep wishful thinking. Spinning it to pressure the independents. I think Tony's very worried about the sour relations between the former-National independents and the Nationals. Was it Windsor or Oakeshott who refers to Barnaby Choice (in Tony's cabinet) as an idiot? I don't think Katter will suck in his pride and deal with the Nationals - hates Truss.

I hope the Shorten story is untrue to (probably a lib plant) he is very tainted by Arbib and the NSW right.

I agree that the leaks weren't that big a deal except to the media. But I do think labor would have done much worse (losing another 10 or 11 seats) without Julia, both sides of politics seem to agree. As an independent I'd find her more likely to compromise and easier to work with than Tony.

Q&A last night was instructive. It seems obvious but KRudd's back flip on 'the most important ethical issue of our generation' was the straw that broke the camel electorate's back. If you can label an issue like that then walk away from it you are credibility barren. And the swings bear it out, sure there was some backwash to the libs but most went to the greens. Green senator hyphen (apologies) vaguely referred to the combined swing across both houses being something like this:

LNP .o64
Informal: 11
Green: 12+

The message she took out of that is that the electorate is sick of the way the 2 parties have turned parliamentary process into a farce and that the challenge is to rebuild the faith. I think the independents concur on things like reforming question time and creating an independent parliamentary budget office (like the US Congress)

Because the indies keep saying their prime goal is 'stable government' the question was asked did that mean considering how the senate work with reps (implying that a greens controlled senate favours a labor led reps), but as Richo says, 90% of the time the senate is hostile (100% if you're ALP) so it shouldn't be considered.

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@hingehead,

Quote:

Misunderstanding Olgs - Bob Katter is not my local member, although the border of Kennedy isn't that far away. I'm in the land of the Entsch that stole christmas.

Well I guess that's marginally better hinge? Wink

Pardon the misunderstanding.

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@hingehead,

Quote:

Scattergun reply

No worries. You were responding to a scattergun post, after all! Smile

Quote:

Was it Windsor or Oakeshott who refers to Barnaby Choice (in Tony's cabinet) as an idiot? I don't think Katter will suck in his pride and deal with the Nationals - hates Truss.

I hope you're right about Katter. (God I hope this is resolved soon! Insufferable, watching him carry on & on ... his big moment in the limelight! Agggh.)
I didn't hear too much which was actually admiring of Barnaby from any of them, actually. I wonder if this could lead to the Nationals rethinking their leadership & their general political focus? They haven't exactly done too well as a partner in the Coalition. Or perhaps that's too far fetched?

Quote:

I hope the Shorten story is untrue to (probably a lib plant) he is very tainted by Arbib and the NSW right.

I thought that could be the case, too. But I am seeing more & more media focus on him, all of a sudden. After hardly seeing anything of him & his fellow NSW Right cronies during the election campaign. It does make me wonder ...

Then there was this, concerning Mark Arbib, in this morning's SMH. He's gone from invisible (during the campaign) to a banned (by Julia, apparently) appearance on Q&A. Curious state of affairs!:

Quote:

Julia Gillard banned NSW right-wing powerbroker Mark Arbib from appearing on a TV show as Labor tries to prevent internal blood-letting from overshadowing its attempt to retain power.

The prime minister told the ABC's Q&A program that Senator Arbib wouldn't be available for last night's show because he should be focused on "discussing Labor's positive plan for the nation's future"

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/pm-bans-powerbroker-arbib-from-appearing-on-qa-20100824-13ium.html?autostart=1

THEN, there was this warm & fuzzy episode of Australian Story last night. Paul Howes explained. Wink

Including warm footage of the Tasmanian disaster, along with Bill Shorten ... who told us what a terrific bloke he was!

Quote:

Video:Labor Of Love/AUSTRALIAN STORY/ABC:
23/08/2010

In this edition of Australian Story we meet someone whose role in the 2010 Federal Election will be hotly debated in the years to come.

From homeless teenager to the youngest ever leader of Australia's oldest union, Paul Howes is living a life accelerated.

Separated from his parents at fourteen and a father by twenty, Paul Howes took over as leader of the Australian Workers' Union at just twenty - six years of age. Two years later, after a meteoric rise, he intervened as one of the 'faceless men' who dispatched former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.

Our cameras followed Paul Howes on the gamble of his professional life as he waits alongside the rest of the country for the election.

outcome.http://www.abc.net.au/austory/

And this. I'm including this under the "weird connections" & "what a small world we live in!" , category!

Quote:

Bryce seeks advice over link with Labor MP
Updated Mon Aug 23, 2010 8:01pm AEST

The Governor-General, Quentin Bryce, says she is seeking advice on her role in deciding the outcome of the federal election.

Ms Bryce is the mother-in-law of the Labor parliamentary secretary Bill Shorten.

She may be called upon to decide whether Labor or the Coalition should get the opportunity to form government. ...<cont>

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/23/2991086.htm

Quote:

..I do think labor would have done much worse (losing another 10 or 11 seats) without Julia, both sides of politics seem to agree.

Yes, I've heard that said many a time over the last couple of days, hinge. It is very difficult to know whether this is the case or not. Perhaps my perception has been coloured by my disappointment in her campaign? I was really hoping for a big improvement on Rudd's wishy-washy policies & saw what was being presented to us as pretty much the same (like on climate change policy) & even worse (on asylum seekers). Plus the connection with the NSW Right ALP powerbrokers. That was pretty incredible to me.

Quote:

LNP .o64
Informal: 11
Green: 12+

Yep, that says it all!
It was no great swing to the Coalition at all. It was the Greens & the independents who were the election winners!

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I was watching the ABC's online news coverage this morning & a newspaper editor described Arbib & co. as "NSW Right machine men who marketed policy as if they were selling soap powder". Any time there's a problem then change the leader. That'll do the trick!
Let's hope that their days as ALP powerbrokers are numbered (or at least their influence is severely curtailed) as a result of this abysmal ALP campaign. And that they are not currently in the process of attempting to install their next leader!

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A few post-election cartoons before I head off ...

http://images.theage.com.au/2010/08/23/1837055/petty23cod-620x0.jpg

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@msolga,

I like this one. Smile

(For those of you who are not locals .. former ALP leader, Kevin Rudd shares a post-election drink with former Liberal Party leader, Malcolm Turnbull .. who lost his position to Tony Abbott (by one vote!) a few months ago.)

http://images.theage.com.au/2010/08/21/1832348/svGOLDING_AUG22-600x400.jpg

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@msolga,

Wooing the independents:

http://images.theage.com.au/2010/08/23/1843367/Moir%2024%208-600x400.jpg

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@msolga,

http://images.theage.com.au/2010/08/23/1843450/svTANDBERG_AUG24-600x400.jpg

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Oz Election Thread #4 - Gillard's Labor

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