If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

I haven't looked to see if there's a link to back it up, but I heard a political analyst night before last says that the Dems through their 'extra curricular activity' courtesy of Soros and others, have outspent the Republicans more than 9 to 1 in this election and this election will set a new record for the amount of money spent. So much for campaign finance reform

Again I don't have a link but there's one out there somewhere, a few weeks ago, Evan Thomas of Newsweek confirmed what many have said: the overwhelming majority of media outlets are Democrats and favor Kerry and his best estimate is that the resulting media spin has added 15 points to Kerry's polling data.

And still Bush is ahead, however marginally. If the GOP is able to turn out their base to vote on Tuesday and, if the cheating isn't too bad this year, Bush should win. They're reporting one Ohio county, however, that has more people registered to vote than there are adults in the county. (This is a heavily Democrat county.) But if the GOP protests it is immediately put out in front page headlines that the GOP is 'tearing up ballots' or "disenfranchising the voters', etc. etc. It is not inconceivable that election fraud could actually elect a president this time.

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this out today from a/p. coin toss?

Bush, Kerry Hold Tie in Electoral College
By RON FOURNIER

WASHINGTON (AP) - President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are virtually tied in the Electoral College count, fighting over eight to 10 states so close and unpredictable that anything is possible Tuesday night.

a/p ec votes tied

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Foxfyre wrote:

I haven't looked to see if there's a link to back it up, but I heard a political analyst night before last says that the Dems through their 'extra curricular activity' courtesy of Soros and others, have outspent the Republicans more than 9 to 1 in this election

I'd be surprised if you would find a link to back that one up.

Foxfyre wrote:

Evan Thomas of Newsweek confirmed what many have said: the overwhelming majority of media outlets are Democrats and favor Kerry

The thing is - there's a lot more media outlets endorsing the Democrat this year than in 2000. Yes - newspapers have now endorsed Kerry even though in 2000 they endorsed Bush. Lots of 'em. The Bradenton Herald (FL), The Orlando Sentinel (FL), The Idaho Statesman, The Chicago Sun-Times, The Daily Herald (IL), The Rockford Register-Star (IL), The Quad City Times (IA), The Bangor Daily News (ME), The Telegram & Gazette (MA), The Muskegon Chronicle (MI), The Flint Journal (MI), The Billings Gazette (MT), The Courier-Post (NJ), The Journal-News (NY), The Morning Call (PA), The Seattle Times, The Oregonian, The Commercial-Appeal (TN), The Contra Costa Times (CA), The Daily News (CA), The Ventura County Star (CA), The Corpus Christi Caller-Times (TX). All newspapers with a circulation of some 50,000 or more, which used to support Bush, but now do so no more. Then there's outlets, such as The New Yorker, that have not endorsed a candidate in eons, but endorsed Kerry now. And papers that backed Bush in 2000 but announced they would not support either candidate this year, like The Tampa Tribune, the Wichita Falls Times Record News (TX) and the Winston-Salem Journal (NC).

In total, 42 newspapers that in 2000 backed Bush now have endorsed Kerry. Bush, in turn, has picked up only six papers that endorsed Al Gore then. 15 newspapers that backed Bush in 2000 have refused to endorse either candidate now. 53 newspapers have now endorsed Kerry even though they didn't take either side yet back in 2000, among them The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and The Roanoke Times. (See here - Editor & Publisher).

You could, of course, read this as evidence of the liberal bias of the media. Or you could wonder what happened to make them all change their mind about Bush's qualities. It looks like many media outlets were not so much "Democrat", per se, but just turned off by what Bush has done to the country.

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New Fox News poll out:

Bush 47 (-3)
Kerry 45 (no ch.)
Nader 1 (+1)

Quote:

Polling was conducted Thursday and Friday evenings, so about half of those interviewed would have had the opportunity to hear reports of a new tape from Usama bin Laden.

Among registered voters, the current poll shows the candidates tied, as was the case in the previous poll.

Half the poll was done after the Osama video, yet voters moved away from Bush? Interesting.

Link

(News on state polls is less positive, though: one has Bush in the lead by 9% in CO, another has him up by 3% in OH and a third one has Kerry up by only 1% in PA.)

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nimh wrote:

after Zogby earlier today, Rasmussen, too, now shows movement towards Kerry in its latest tracking poll [..]

Lessee what TIPP and WaPo say later today.

Those are in now too. TIPP has movement towards Bush; WaPo, like Zogby and Rasmussen, has movement towards Kerry.

TIPP
Bush 46 (no ch.)
Kerry 44 (-2)
Nader 2 (no ch.)

WaPo
Bush 49 (-1)
Kerry 48 (+1)
Nader 1 (+1)

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Next: (it's gonna keep on going like this till Tuesday, innit?)

American Research Group, 28-30 October (compared with 2-4 October):

EDITED - ARG compared two sets of current numbers (likely and registered voter samples) with one set of previous numbers. Taking the current LV sample, I wrote down +4% for Bush and +1% for Kerry, but it turns out the numbers for the previous poll were for RV, so apples and oranges. Corrected:

Likely voters:
Bush 48 (+2)
Kerry 48 (+2)
Nader 1 (-1)

Registered voters:
Bush 48 (+4)
Kerry 48 (+1)
Nader 1 (-1)

Sample had 40% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 25% Independents. Independents went Kerry's way 48% to 45%, while 6% of Republicans and 11% of Democrats opted for the other party's guy.

Link

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Well, Hell. Why 5% fewer Republicans? Who's gonna buy that? Illegitimate.

<I'm getting excited!>

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Lash wrote:

Well, Hell. Why 5% fewer Republicans? Who's gonna buy that? Illegitimate.

Thats what I was thinking, thats why I thought I'd mention it.

Still, I went back and actually started calculating - and this is probably relevant re: keltic's earlier denunciation of Gallup as "having been bought" by the Reps (because they used samples with 40% Reps and 32% Dems) as well. Here's those ARG numbers again. Now what if we acted like the Reps, Dems and Indys in the sample each constituted 1/3 of the total? Let the numbers for each of the three groups weigh in equally and see what the totals then become?

Surprisingly, there's little change:

Bush: (91/3)+(11/3)+(45/3)= 49%
Kerry: (6/3)+(87/3)+(48/3)= 47%

Bush gets a percentage point more; Kerry a percentage point less. Instead of a tie, a 2% Bush lead.

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You know, I haven't been picking up on these samples. I had no idea they'd squew in either direction and publish it as a representative poll.

I guess, though, with Indy numbers in flux, they can never get it perfect.

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Quote:

MSNBC: Bush hangs on to slim leads in state polls

Good news for the president in two states Gore carried, Iowa and New Mexico; virtual tie in Ohio, four-point Bush edge in Florida ...

Poll results, MSNBC/Knight-Ridder-Mason-Dixon, Oct. 27 through Oct. 29, 2004

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timberlandko wrote:

Poll results, MSNBC/Knight-Ridder-Mason-Dixon, Oct. 27 through Oct. 29, 2004

On the basis of those poll results, Bush would get 296 EVs and Kerry 242.

Meanwhile, Dem Corps has another national poll out:

Bush 47 (+1)
Kerry 48 (-1)
Nader 0

And SurveyUSA today has Kerry up 12% in New Jersey, the candidates tied in Nevada and Bush up 4% in Virginia.

Mixed results, thus ...

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Hell, if there wasn't an each-way chance, there'd be nothin' for the prognositicators to prognosticate ... where's the fun in that? Laughing

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Yikes... getting tighter offshore too.

Quote:

01/NOV/04
09:00 PM 15519 Which candidate will win the U.S. Presidential Election in 2004?

George W. Bush -140

John Kerry EV

That's all the way back down to 6 to 5. Shocked

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This webpage has a nice and clear-looking overview of state-by-state averages for recent state polls. Unfortunately, it doesn't detail which polls they've used to arrive at those averages, not as far as I could find back anyway, so the methodology remains a mystery. But the numbers look believable enough, and its nice to see the average detailed into percentage points rather than the usual "leaning to" or "slight advantage". Havent seen a similar overview before.

At the moment, the overview (which is made by clearly conservative website editors, mind you) has Bush winning the EV 296 to 242, winning both the "big two" (OH and FL) and the "small three" (WI, NM and IA). However, it puts the Bush lead in Ohio at just 0,1% and in Wisconsin at only 1,0%. Flip those two states, and you get a Kerry victory in the EC of 272 to 266. Among the Kerry states, there's only one state within such a 1% margin: Minnesota.

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Aargh - only one damn poll that matters...

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Dlowan is talking, of course, about the Redskins/Packers game today.

Since 1936 the results of the last Redskins game before a presidential election have correctly predicted the outcome. When the Redskins win, the incumbent has always won. When the Redskins lose, the challenger has always won.

I have never, ever even imagined saying this... but here goes

GO PACKERS!!!

snopes

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GO PACKERS indeed!!! :-D

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Too lazy to link ... but Soz'll be overjoyed to hear both Reuters-Zogby and Fox-Opinion Dynamics this morning show a dead-heat tie.

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I've pretty much been staying away from the MSM poll stuff since I found THIS guy a couple of weeks ago. He explains both his and all the other prominent pollsters methodologies in a manner that doesn't require one to have a degree in statistics to understand.

A bit of his post from yesterday:

Quote:

I never had a good a priori reason for excising Newsweek. As my reasons against Newsweek have always been a posteriori, i.e. they just come up with screwy results that nobody is replicating, I have decided that they can be included pending review. Since Newsweek is really, really, really good about releasing its data, and the data seems up-to-snuff this week, this warrants their inclusion. My position on the poll also warmed after I discovered that NBC/WSJ use the same polling outfit, Princeton Associates, for their polls. NBC/WSJ is a fairly decent poll -- so the Newsweek methodology cannot be all that screwed up (inherently at least).

In retrospect, I believe I have been a little too hyperbolic when it comes to Newsweek. My apologies to Eleanor Clift (on this matter, anyway).

Ohio
Bush: 47.93%
Kerry: 46.89%
MOE: 1.4%
(Respondents: 3,511; Polls Used: LA Times, Cleveland Plain-Dealer, Mason-Dixon, Strategic Vision)
Based on these results, we can be 80.51% confident that Bush presently has a lead.

Florida
Bush: 49.13%
Kerry: 45.58%
MOE: 1.4%
(Respondents: 4,683; Polls Used: Insider Advantage, Strategic Vision, LA Times, Gallup, Quinnipiac, NY Times, Mason-Dixon)
Based on these results, we can be 99.88% confident that Bush presently has a lead.

Iowa
Bush: 49.24%
Kerry: 45.98%
MOE: 1.9%
(Respondents: 2,675; Polls Used: Mason-Dixon, Research 2000, Strategic Vision, Gallup)
Based on these results, we can be 99.34% confident that Bush presently has a lead.

Wisconsin
Bush: 47.77%
Kerry: 46.36%
MOE: 1.2%
(Respondents: 1,971; Polls Used: Mason-Dixon, Strategic Vision, Badger Poll)
Based on these results, we can be 81.33% confident that Bush presently has a lead.

Minnesota
Bush: 45.1%
Kerry: 46.5%
MOE: 2.1%
(Respondents: 2,189; Polls Used: Mason-Dixon, Strategic Vision, Humphrey Institute, St. Cloud State University)
Based on these results, we can be 68.79% confident that Kerry presently has a lead.

Pennsylvania
Bush: 47.08%
Kerry: 48.52%
MOE: 1.4%
(Respondents: 4,251; Polls Used: West Chester University Gallup Quinnipiac, LA Times, Temple University)
Based on these results, we can be 92.07% confident that Kerry presently has a lead.

Nationwide
Bush: 49.57%
Kerry: 46.28%
MOE: +/- 0.9%
(Respondents: 8,954; Polls Used: ABC News, Fox News, LA Times, Gallup, Newsweek, Battleground)
Based on these results, we can be 99.9997% confident that Bush presently has a lead.
Present Probability that Bush will win the Electoral College: 96.36% (This is the probability that Bush wins FL and IA and WI or OH. Thus, we can be 96.36% confident that Bush would receive a minimum of either 271 EVs or 281 EVs).

Evaluation: Bush looks to be in very strong shape in IA and FL. At this point, his numbers are inching closer and closer to 50%. His numbers in Ohio are coming back to their levels from mid-October. I believe this is due mostly to bad polls replacing good polls and then being replaced in turn by good polls. He still likely retains a lead in WI, but the Mason-Dixon numbers are somewhat unsettling (though they are mitigated by the MN numbers, which in this post are skewed by an outlying survey from St. Cloud State).

Bush also seems to be inching upward in PA, due to a string of polls calling the race a tie (Quinippiac even has him up), which might result in a big pro-Bush surprise on Election Night. Gallup should release another PA poll sometime before 11-02. That should be the one to look for.

Right now the EV math is looking awfully tough for Kerry. He is definitely behind in FL, IA and, though I do not cover it here, NM. This gives Bush a minimum of 266 EVs. Plus, Bush is likely leading in OH and WI -- and I think Kerry will be unable to hold MN when all is said and done. The word on the ground is that BC04's organization in MN is a sight to behold. The big question on my mind right now is not whether Bush gets to 269, but whether he breaks 300 (which he would do if he carries FL, IA, NM, WI, OH and MN -- that would be 306).

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Dales today has state poll updates for no less than 21 different states ...

Most retain their designation.

Illinois, Maryland, Connecticut, Washington, Oregon and New Jersey remain leaning to Kerry or better.

Colorado, Virginia, West-Virginia, Missouri and Indiana remain leaning to Bush or better.

Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Hampshire remain at a slight advantage for Kerry, which Dales basically already considers a toss-up.

New Mexico and Florida remain at a slight advantage for Bush, which Dales basically already considers a toss-up.

Minnesota and Ohio remain total toss-ups.

Then there's three states that changed designation:

- Wisconsin went from total toss-up to slight advantage/Kerry. Mason-Dixon here has Kerry up by 2%, and the Zogby tracking poll has Kerry surging, his lead now 8%.

- Iowa went from slight advantage/Bush to total toss-up. This because of the Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co poll that has Kerry up by 3% (a lead that's specified as having increased through the week, up to 6% in the last few days), and the Zogby tracking poll having Kerry up by 1%. On the other hand, Mason-Dixon has Bush up by 5%. Both Mason Dixon and Selzer&Co are specified as having "exemplary reputations".

- Nevada from leaning/Bush to merely slight advantage/Bush. Two out of three most recent polls have Bush up by 4-6%, but SurveyUSA has the race a tie, at 49% each.

Total score:
Bush 222 / Kerry 186 / Tossup 151
Or, if you count the slight advantages:
Bush 259 / Kerry 238 / Tossup 41

Unless he can pull off Florida after all, Kerry's got to win Ohio. And Minnesota. And either Hawaii or Iowa. It's tough - but it's doable.

The problem is that both Bush and Kerry are juggling a lotta balls - but Bush can drop one or two and not get in trouble, while Kerry's gotta catch 'em each and every one.

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If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

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