If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

The poll finds indications that turnout will be significantly higher than in the two previous presidential elections, especially among younger people. Yet Bush gets the boost Republican candidates typically receive when the sample is narrowed from the base of 2,408 registered voters to those most likely to vote. [..]

Pew's final survey suggests that the remaining undecided vote may break only slightly in Kerry's favor. When both turnout and the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account in Pew's final estimate, Bush holds a slight 51%-48% margin.

The poll, taken over a four-day period, found the recent video tape from Osama bin Laden had no clear impact on voter preferences. Interviews conducted after the tape was released on Oct. 29 generally resembled the polling conducted on the two previous days.

The potential still exists for changes in voter opinion and, equally important, in the composition of the electorate on Nov. 2. While 6% of likely voters are undecided, another 8% still leave open the possibility of changing their vote.

In that regard, neither campaign has a clear advantage in reaching potential supporters. The survey confirms the extent to which the campaigns are concentrating their efforts in the battleground states. Six-in-ten voters in these contested states say they have been personally contacted ­ either face-to-face or by telephone ­ by one or both of the campaigns.

Bush holds a solid 52%-43% lead among men, but unlike four years ago, women divide their support fairly evenly ­ 48% support Kerry, while 44% back Bush. Married women and mothers slightly favor the president over Kerry; unmarried women decidedly support the Democratic challenger [..]

Among religious groups, Bush continues to have an overwhelming advantage among white evangelical Protestants, and he also leads among white mainline Protestants. The race is a toss-up among white Catholics. [..]

Each candidate garners the support of about 90% of their partisans. Kerry holds a slight 48%-44% margin among independent voters. Bush continues to hold a significant advantage among male veterans.

Voter choices are more correlated with views of the war in Iraq and the war on terrorism than with opinions about the state of the national economy.

[..] significant numbers say they have already voted or plan to do so before Election Day. Overall, 16% of likely voters say they voted early, and another 8% expect to cast ballots before Nov. 2 [..]

Both parties have aggressively encouraged early voting and the poll indicates that their efforts have largely balanced each other out. Among those who say they have already cast a ballot, Kerry received 48% and Bush 47%. Those who say they still plan to vote early divide 49% for Bush and 46% for Kerry.

By a wide margin, (48%-27%), more registered voters say Bush, rather than Kerry, is most likely to win Tuesday's election. But there is decidedly more uncertainty on this score than at the beginning of the month, or even a few weeks ago. Currently, a quarter of voters decline to project an election outcome, up from 12% in early October.

Registered voters continue to view this election as very significant. More than eight-in-ten voters (84%) call the election outcome especially important, compared with 67% in the days prior to the 2000 election and just 61% at a comparable point in 1996.

As in previous polls, Bush's supporters are much more enthusiastic than those backing Kerry. In fact, Bush registers a higher percentage of strong supporters in the final weekend of the campaign than any candidate since former President Ronald Reagan in 1984. Fully 39% of likely voters support Bush strongly, while 9% back him only moderately. Roughly three-in-ten likely voters say they support Kerry strongly (32%), and 13% back him moderately, a pattern more typical of recent presidential candidates.

I'm thinking that Time, Gallup/CNN/USAToday and CBS/NYT will still come out with a poll and perhaps NBC/WSJ, Harris, Marist, ICR, Pew, AP-Ipsos and/or the LA Times as well.

When asked whether the Bush administration is at fault and should be held accountable for the missing explosives, 49 percent of the respondents in the poll say no, while just 38 percent say yes. In addition, the survey finds that 24 percent say Osama bin Laden's recent statement that "any state that does not mess with our security, has naturally guaranteed its own security" made them more inclined to vote for Bush. Twelve percent say it made them more inclined to vote for Kerry, and 62 percent say it made no difference at all. (This question about bin Laden has a margin of error of 4.0 percentage points.)

Furthermore, the poll shows that 49 percent of likely voters believe that terrorism and social issues are the two issues they find more important in deciding whom they will vote for in this election. That's compared with 39 percent who say the economy and health care are more important.

The number of uncommitted voters up for grabs nationwide remains small: less than one in ten likely voters still either has no choice at all, or has a choice but might still change their mind before Tuesday.

[..] Today one in five voters nationwide say they have already cast their ballot in some way, and still more were planning to do so before Tuesday when interviewed Thursday through Saturday.

[..] Early voters split about evenly, one-third each between Democrats, Republicans and Independents. They are a bit older: one-quarter are 65 or over, and eight in ten are above age 45. President Bush holds a lead among them [Bush 51 Kerry 43].

[..] many voters say they would feel scared about the future if one of the candidates gets elected. 28% would be scared if Bush is re-elected - up from 17% who, in October of 2000, said they were frightened by the thought of a then-potential Bush presidency. Today, 23% would feel scared if Kerry takes the White House. One in five felt that way about Al Gore in October 2000.

Neither candidate, by contrast, inspires a lot of excitement. 16% say they would be excited if Bush wins, and another 31% would be optimistic (but not excited). 24% would be concerned. If Kerry were elected, one in ten voters would be excited, another third optimistic, and 31% of voters say they would be concerned.

[..] This poll was being conducted as the new tape of terrorist Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden surfaced; only its final day, Saturday, followed the tape's airing. In the interviews conducted after the tape (and news stories about it) was aired, the results were about the same

[..] Most voters do not think there is a deliberate attempt in some states to prevent African-Americans and others from voting or having their votes counted. Among African-American voters, however, a large majority thinks there is a deliberate attempt in some states to keep them from voting.

[..] The President's job approval rating among all Americans is now 49% (44% disapprove), an improvement from mid-October when 44% approved.

[..] Approval ratings on other specific elements of his presidency -- handling the economy, foreign policy and the situation in Iraq -- are more negative than positive. But public approval in one key area, handling terrorism, is strong; 55% approve, and 40% disapprove.

[..] Registered voters remain divided as to whether taking military action against Iraq was the right course of action, although more think it was right (52%) than think it was a mistake (44%).

When voters are asked to choose between Bush and Kerry on the key campaign issues, more voters continue to see President Bush as more likely to prevent future terror attacks [although his lead decreased by 4 points to 10%] and as having a better plan for Iraq [on which his lead decreased by 2 points to 5%]. Senator Kerry continues to be viewed as the candidate more likely to improve the economy [increasing his lead by 3 points to 10%].

[..] When registered voters reflect upon the videotape of Osama bin Laden they divide in their opinion of whether they are more favorable to George Bush or John Kerry. [Data: seeing or reading about the tape made 46% more favourable to Bush and 43% more favourable to Kerry. Division is completely along party lines.]

I'll be unsurprised if the breathless "News" today will be a "tightening" of the race, with a "Kerry Swing". Pretty much the same thing happened immediately prior to the 2002 Mid Terms. Then the final polls showed a late-breaking Democrat swing, buoying Democrat hopes and leading to confident prognostications they would decisively retake both The House and The Senate.

I will be similarly unsurprised should current Democrat hopes be similarly dashed tomorrow. Them folks just don't get it.