More Poll stuff ...
So, what about "The New Voter"? The
First-Time Voter Tracker Survey by The Pace University Poll & Rock the Vote (Download note: 20 page PDF file) shows First Time Voters trending Bush (Sample taken 10/1-21);
2-Way: 48% Bush, 44% Kerry, Net with Leaners, compared with this poll's July figures of 40% Bush, 50% Kerry, Net with Leaners. That works out to a 14 point net gain for Bush, July - October, among this particular demographic.
The 3-Way tally is 48% Bush, 42% Kerry, 4% Nader, Net with Leaners, compared with this poll's July figures of 44% Bush, 42% Kerry, 6% Nader Net with Leaners.
Among the poll's internals are several interesting indicators:
* Kerry's Net Favorable stands little changed at 48%, compared with July's 49%, but his Net Unfavorable of 46% is a full 10 points above his July score of 36%, while for Bush the figures are 52% current Net Favorable vs July's 49%, and his current Net Unfavorable of 44% compares to his July score of 47%. While the shift has been relatively slight, it has not been negative.
* Cheney has gone from a July 40% Net Favorable to a current 48% score, while his Net Unfavorable of 42% is little changed from his July standing, while Edwards scores a current Net Favorable of 46% compared to July's 41% with his current Net Unfavorable of 38% is nearly twice his July 20% score.
* Bush's Job Approval of 52% reflects a 3 point gain over the July rating, and the current Disapproval of 44% is a 4 point improvement from July's 48% score.
* The currently reported 52% to 48% Net Support/Oppose for having gone to war with Iraq compares to July's even split of 48% - 48%
* On the question "Do you feel that George W. Bush has done enough to protect the nation from potential terrorist attacks, or has George W. Bush not done enough to protect the nation from potential terrorist attacks?" the current 59% "Has Done Enough" is little changed from July's 58%, while the "Has NOT Done Enough" is reported unchanged at 36% for both periods
* On the question "Do you feel that if John Kerry became president that he would do enough to protect the nation from potential terrorist attacks, or would John Kerry not do enough to protect the nation from potential terrorist attacks?" we have a current 47% Would/44% Would not as compared to the July 43% Would/33% Would Not.
* Over half the respondants said they essentially did not follow either convention, though over 75% said they watched some or all of the debates.
* Nearly 4 out of 5 respondants say they're confident the election " ... will be counted honestly and accurately"
* The question "Have you gone to any political meetings, rallies, speeches, dinners, or things like that in support of a candidate?" garnered identical 11% "Yes", 89% "No" responses in both the current sample and July's.
* The question "And do you believe that the ultimate winner of the 2004 presidential election will be the legitimate choice of the majority of the American people?" tallied 67% Yes, 18% No, 15% Don't know, 1% Refused (no July benchmark listed)
* The question "When it comes to most political issues, do you think of yourself as a liberal, a conservative or a moderate?" yielded a 30% Net Liberal response compared to a 37% Net Conservative, 24% Moderate response.
* The question "Do you think of yourself as a Republican, a
Democrat, an independent" resulted in a 38% Net Republican, 36% Net Democrat, 18% Independent breakdown.
* 57% of respondants were between the ages of 17 - 40, 42% over 40, with the remainfer declining to state age. 47% were Male, 53% Female. 35% were registered as Republicans, 27% as Democrats, 25% as "Other", and 14% listed no party choice.
I found this, from Rasmussen, pretty interesting, too, particularly as it relates to the trending apparent in the Pace University/Rock the Vote poll cited above:
Quote:Rasnussen: 71% Decided Before Fall Campaign
October 26, 2004--Seventy-one percent (71%) of voters made their final decision on their Presidential vote before the fall campaign season began. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that 12% decided about a month ago, 9% a week ago, and 5% in the past few days.
Those who made up their mind earlier in the process tend to be more supportive of Senator Kerry. Those who made up their mind later in the process are more supportive of the President. This is consistent with the fact that Senator Kerry led in most polls through mid-August and has generally trailed since Labor Day and the Republican National Convention.
Among voters who made up their minds in the Spring of 2004 or sooner, Kerry is favored by a 51% to 48% margin. This obviously includes some who decided to vote for anybody-but-Bush since 36% of voters made up their mind before the Democratic nominee was selected.
The candidates are essentially tied among those who made up their minds during the summer. However, those who decided in the past month favor President Bush by a 57% to 38% margin.
Our sample included 136 Likely Voters who made up their mind over the last week. These voters also appear to be breaking in the President's direction but the small sample size prevents any definitive assessment.
There are very few undecided voters today. Those who have recently made their final decision are most likely firming up a choice for the candidate they have been leaning towards for some period of time.
At the moment, 93% of Bush voters are certain they won't change their mind and 89% of Kerry voters say the same. Our daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows that just 2% of voters remain undecided at this time (many of whom may not vote).
You will find that the more information you crunch together when researching a wager, the closer you are likely to come to where the book has already set the line. The oddsmaker's ability to predict the outcome of wagers is nothing shy of staggering. That is why they are so difficult to defeat.