If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

Your take on this---?

I think when we see a candidate scrambling to secure his base on the eve of and election--we conclude he's in trouble.

When a guy is grabbing strays from the opposing party--he's secure with his base...

Ummm, guess what...

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Lash wrote:

Your take on this---?

I think when we see a candidate scrambling to secure his base on the eve of and election--we conclude he's in trouble.

When a guy is grabbing strays from the opposing party--he's secure with his base...

Ummm, guess what...

Okay...I guess that John Kerry is going to win this election!

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Frank, if you're this good at picking football teams, I want to start covering your action! :wink:

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Kerry is losing women and blacks.

Bush has picked them up.

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OK, all the data for last week (Monday thru Sunday) should be in by now ... so here are my updated graphs again.

Two-way race data (ever fewer polls providing such data these past few weeks, but there's still enough):

http://home.wanadoo.nl/anepiphany/images/bush-kerry_oct3.gif

Three-way race data:

http://home.wanadoo.nl/anepiphany/images/bush-kerry_3way_oct3.gif

Average of all polls:

http://home.wanadoo.nl/anepiphany/images/bush-kerry_average_oct3.gif

Note that for this one, I changed strategy yet again. I had shifted from using two-way race data only in this avarage graph to using three-way race data as well, shown as a separate (dark green/black) line in the graph. For the last couple of weeks I had started showing only the three-way data line in the graph, since ever fewer polls include two-way data. But now I realised that that meant that such polls as Rasmussen and ICR (which still only do two-way data) were no longer represented in the development of my graph for these last few weeks. So I herewith present a third line, the dark red one shown for the last three weeks: 3-way PLUS. It includes all polling data for the three-way races (likely voters where possible, weekly averages for the tracking polls) plus the two-way data for the polls that only have such.

You still following me? Razz

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Foxfyre wrote:

I just heard an interesting (unconfirmed) statistic on our local radio station.

In every election dating back to the mid 1930's, if the Washington Redskins lose their last home game before the election, the incumbant loses. if the Redkins win, the incumbant wins.

The Redskins play the Packers in Washington on Sunday.

Confirmed by the most credible source there is, Cool

The most credible source there is, 8-) wrote:

-Since voters elected Franklin Roosevelt to his first of four terms in 1932, the Redskins have forecasted the next President. Over the past 18 elections, a Redskins win the weekend before Election Day has preceded a win by the incumbent party. On the other hand, a Redskins loss before the vote has preceded a loss by the incumbent party.

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Lash wrote:

Your take on this---?

I think when we see a candidate scrambling to secure his base on the eve of and election--we conclude he's in trouble.

When a guy is grabbing strays from the opposing party--he's secure with his base...

Ummm, guess what...

Guess in this case the data is conflicting.

On the one hand we have two states that went Bush in 2000 as the major battlefields - Ohio and Florida.

On the other hand we have three states that went Gore functioning as the second "layer" of states the candidates depend on for their victory - Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico.

Lash wrote:

Kerry is losing women and blacks.

Bush has picked them up.

Again, conflicting data.

Bush is definitely doing better among women than he was back in 2000, at least he has been since the Republican Convention.

On the other hand, since the overall race is still as close as it was in 2000 (when at this point in time Gore was further behind than Kerry now is), that means that Kerry is doing better among men than Gore was.

As for blacks, I have seen a poll trumpeted that had support for Bush among them doubled to 18%. But the last poll I looked at in detail (the WaPo one I believe) had his support down at 8%, more or less exactly where it was in 2000.

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nimh wrote:

You still following me?

I am! And bless ya for doing this. I was just quoting this stuff to a friend today. "That's interesting, where'd you learn it?" Uh, this like site that um... look at that squirrel!

(That was funny actually, new parent friend, kids are in gymnastics class and adore each other, first outside-of-class play date, we talked about this and that and he might be getting a job in New York, he said "but I get to vote here first." That hung for a minute, I couldn't resist, I asked "OK who?" He said "Kerry" and I said WHEW! and we merrily talked politics for the next half hour or so.) (I don't mind talking politics with Republican friends, it's just usually less merry. Embroiled in a multi-email-a-day discussion with a Republican friend who the Republicans here would LOVE to have on your side. He's a good debator.)

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It's a damn good thing you provide the average of polls, Nimh. The other two are a bit busy. Makes CNN's poll of polls look like the lazy way out. You're still nuts.

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Bill, so who will you be rooting for Sunday?

Soz....recruit him. Smile

Nimh, I add my kudos to you for keeping up this site.
Between you and Timber, I know we'll have enough
data to ponder.

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I do everything I can to keep my worlds from colliding. (A2K and rl.) I finally told one person about it, would be cool if she shows up. She's the one who introduced me to Abuzz, not anyone you guys know though. But thassit.

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Foxfyre wrote:

Bill, so who will you be rooting for Sunday?

Soz....recruit him.

Soz....recruit him? Do you know what you're saying there, Foxy?

As for your question; I already answered here.

(I'll give you a hint though; Go Packers! Razz

)

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OCCOM BILL wrote:

It's a damn good thing you provide the average of polls, Nimh. The other two are a bit busy.

They're there to prove that I'm not just making those averages up ;-)

Plus, they're a good way of easily identifying outliers (like that last Fox poll that had Bush up by 7%; or that AP/Ipsos poll that had Kerry up by 4%).

OCCOM BILL wrote:

Makes CNN's poll of polls look like the lazy way out.

Not to blow my own horn (is that the expression?), but I can't think of any other graph that's this complete and updated every week. (We all need a hobby.)

OCCOM BILL wrote:

You're still nuts.

Yessir I am. <salutes>

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I meant recruit Soz's friend Bill. And who would have thought you were a Kerry supporter. Oh well, somebody has to support him. Smile

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You da man (head nut)!

I hadn't thought of looking for the outliers on there but that makes perfect sense. Shouldn't that be spelled outliars, though? :wink:

I'm no Kerry supporter Foxy... just prioritizing.:wink:

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OK, I'll just say I see three sources (2--Oct 19) and MSNBC, today, that say Bush is in with 18% of blacks. A 10% addition from the Dem ranks.

And, I think a double digit percentage of women have crossed over.

I'll have to go demographic hunting...

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Well Lash, you're a woman. I'm a woman. Hear us ROAR. That's two. You gotta figure there's more. I already showed why I think Bush has cornered the senior vote. Two black families on my block. One with a Kerry/Edward bumper sticker; one with a Heather Wilson (GOP congresswoman) in his yard. That 50-50 Smile

But for the best totally unscientific poll, AOL started a new presidential straw poll a little while ago. Results as of this hour:

What will the result of the election be?
Bush wins by more than 5 percent 34%
Kerry wins by less than 5 percent 25%
Bush wins by less than 5 percent 24%
Kerry wins by more than 5 percent 17%

That's with something over 300,000 members responding so far.

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Me, three

Not even "security moms" right? (I'm not a mom at all).

Thanks for the heads up on the AOL poll, Fox. Going to vote in it now! (I'm betting on the "Bush wins by more than 5%").

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nimh wrote:

You still following me?

Yes. I'm currently on a trip through the US so don't have much much time to check in, but this is one of the threads I continue to follow. Thanks for the good work!

--T.

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http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct27p.html

Bush 284
Kerry 234

As of today. Still shows Florida to be "Barely Kerry", but I heard early this morning that the Kerry camp has all but given up on Florida and Colorado (ok source wasn't all that reliable LOL).

(Neither is electoral-vote.com, but it's still a pretty map with all that red) Smile

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If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

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