Reuters-Zogby 10/28: Bush 49, Kerry 46
Rasmussen 10/28:Bush 48.9, Kerry 46.9
Quinnipiac 10/28: Bush 49, Kerry 47 in PA (10/23 was Bush 46, Kerry 51)
Quote:... Among registered voters backing Bush, 78 percent say their vote is mainly for the President. Among Kerry supporters, 45 percent say their vote is pro-Kerry and 40 percent say they are voting mainly against Bush ...
More Quinnipiac:
Fla: Bush 49, Kerry 46 (Previous: Bush 48, Kerry 47)
NJ: Bush 46, Kerry 46 (Previous: Bush 45, Kerry 49)
I'm feeling a bit better.
Actually, no, but almost:
Quote:Bush led Kerry 48-46 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll, gaining one point on the Massachusetts senator in a day. Bush led Kerry 48-47 percent on Wednesday.
And a further tracking poll:
TIPP
Bush 47 (-1)
Kerry 44 (no ch.)
Nader 2
Oddly, the latest LA Times state polls have Kerry ahead 6% in Ohio, but the two candidaties tied in Pennsylvania and Bush ahead 8% in Florida. Doesn't sound too credible to me.
Hehheh, thats OK, happens to us all. "The wish is the father of the thought", we say in Dutch ;-)
Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio seems to be making it his spiel this year to put out numbers that are embarassing to Bush. Reported here (yesterday) are his latest:
Quote:NEW POLL OF BATTLEGROUND STATES: Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio has released his final survey of twelve battleground states (CO, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, and WI). The good news for Bush: It's a dead heat. The bad news for Bush: When the data is weighted to reflect the actual composition of the electorate, Kerry leads by four to five points.
The un-weighted results show Bush at 47.3 percent, Kerry at 47.1 percent, and Nader at 1.6 percent in the battleground states. When Fabrizio applies a turnout model based on the 2000 election results, it's Bush 45.7, Kerry 49.2, and Nader 1.5. Using assumptions based on the census, it's Bush 44.7, Kerry 49.9, and Nader 1.6.
Fabrizio notes two ominous implications for Bush in the data. "[A] minor, but troubling trend ... for the President is the evaporating support for Ralph Nader," Fabrizio writes. Secondly: "It is clear that minority turnout is a wildcard in this race and represents a huge upside for Senator Kerry and a considerable challenge for the President's campaign. If one assumes minority turnout exceeds their 2000 election levels, then it appears a number of these states would tip to Senator Kerry."
This explains the Bush campaign's recent strategic shift from trying to woo minorities to vote for Bush to trying to keep turnout as low as possible.
posted 11:05 a.m.
MORE ON NEW VOTERS: How important to Kerry are all those newly registered voters? Tony Fabrizio argues it's the difference between victory and defeat. According to his new poll, voters in the battleground states who have registered to vote in the last six months--7 percent of the likely voter electorate--break for Kerry
62 percent to 29 percent. According to Fabrizio:
Quote:If it weren't for the newly registered voters, Kerry would be trailing the President instead of tied. It is no exaggeration to state that much of Kerry's hopes in these battleground states rest on turning out people who have never voted before.
Fifty-five percent of the newly registered voters are Democrats, and only 20 percent are Republicans. Independents, what has been the fastest growing registration in many places in recent years, make up only 18 percent of these new voters. The ideological breakdown is similar: 36.4 percent liberal, 31 percent moderate, and 25 percent conservative.
If this data is right--the sample size is not huge--it suggests the Democratic 527s are killing the GOP in voter registration in swing states. And note that in this poll the only new voters included were ones who passed Fabrizio's likely voter screen, so the survey could actually be understating the Democratic advantage.
posted 7:47 p.m.
And sandwiched in between, this summary evaluation of the Dem take on the polls:
Quote:KERRY CAMPAIGN'S VIEW OF THE POLLS: This is from an e-mail to Democrats from Kerry pollster Mark Mellman. It's a good summary of the points various Kerry advisers have been making recently about the polls.
Quote:-George Bush appears to have hit a ceiling of support at 47-48%. During the past several weeks, he has tried to break through this ceiling by attacking John Kerry. This strategy has failed, and he is running up against the clock. An incumbent president who cannot break through the 50% barrier is going to find it very difficult to win reelection.
-Young voters are overwhelmingly supporting John Kerry and are one of his strongest voting blocks. This year millions of new young Americans have registered to vote, and their turnout on Election Day will be one of the deciding factors.
-Almost every poll, public and private, has John Kerry doing even better in the key battleground states than in the national horserace.
Hard to argue with most of this, but one wonders if the Kerry campaign isn't placing a little too much faith in newly registered young voters, historically one of the least likely parts of the electorate to show up on Election Day.
posted 11:15 a.m.
All from
TNR Campaign Journal
The Iowa Electronic Markets show investors getting last-minute second thoughts ... :
And finally, two national polls out today, both favourable to Kerry, but both of questionable perspective:
Democracy Corps:
Bush 46 (-1)
Kerry 49 (no ch.)
Nader 1 (no ch.)
The Economist/YouGov:
Bush 45 (-1)
Kerry 49 (+1)
Nader 1 (no ch.)
nimh
Off topic, but I wanted to get this one piece to you...by Ian Buruma (third piece in the series, though each one is very worthwhile).
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/17511
Thanks, Blatham.
Shocker Strategic Vision state polls in - a Republican pollster, mind you, but one who's mostly polled pretty close up to the average:
New Jersey: Bush 44% Kerry 44%
Michigan: Bush 47% Kerry 47%
Minnesota: Bush 49% Kerry 47%
They also got Washington polling at Kerry 50% Bush 44%, so its not like a blatantly unrealistic set or anything ... plus, there's the Quinnipiac ones Timber posted earlier. <worried>
Strategic Vision uses a computer to do a lot of polls.
They don't know if it's a 9-year old on the other end of the phone....
Cycloptichorn
just watching bob schieffer of CBS 'face the nation' being interviewed by larry king on CNN. he was asked to give his opinion on who would win the presidential election. he said that 'phone pollsters have a difficult time getting a proper sample of elegible voters; apparently only about 1 (ONE) out of six people being phoned is willing to give an answer ! asked whom he would like to see win the election, he said he can accept either senator kerry or president bush as the newly elected president. he just hopes that there will be a decisive victory by one of the contestants , and he hopes no deep wounds will be left. (i think bob schieffer is a very experienced newscaster and gave a pretty good picture of the state of the election). hbg
More in the category bad news:
Last Tuesday,
this article in TNR noted Kerry's stop in Macomb County, Michigan, and remarked:
Quote:After solid leads in Michigan for almost two months, a couple of recent polls showing a Bush edge spooked Kerry, and the campaign decided to drop into the state on its way to Wisconsin and the western battlegrounds. If Kerry is back in Michigan before Tuesday, it may be a harbinger of bad news on Election Day.
Today, the NYT reports:
Quote:Mr. Kerry is scheduled to appear in Detroit on Saturday.
President Bush [..] was in Pontiac, also near Detroit, on Wednesday and is scheduled to visit Saginaw on Thursday.
Evening, all: I think MI, OH, PA and MN look okay for Mr Kerry. FL and NH go to Mr Bush. I see it coming down to WI, IA and CO (and CO could turn out to be really wierd because of the referendum there). Right now, it looks like Mr Kerry 268 and Mr Bush 270.
You have NH going Bush, rjb, really?
(I've never been to NH of course, but I had kinda started to take for granted that it'd go Kerry this year, if the race is at all close).
In possible good news,
Quote:Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, just held a conference call with Arkansas media to announce a $250,000 television ad buy for Arkansas.
Starting tonight, and continuing through Election Day, the ads will run on stations in Little Rock, Ft. Smith, and Jonesboro.
McAuliffe said that the commitment, which is their largest in any Southern state besides Florida, was motivated by their own internal tracking polls, which show the presidential race is a dead heat in Arkansas.
"The state is switching from red to blue," McAuliffe said. "We would not be spending a quarter of a million dollars there if it did not show that we could win."
McAuliffe also confirmed that Bill Clinton will visit Arkansas on Sunday afternoon for a campaign event, although the details have not been finalized. He said it will be Clinton's last campaign stop in 2004--the former president will return to to his home in New York from Arkansas.
The DNC also will purchase radio ads separate from their $250K TV expenditure.
(From The Arkansas Times, via TNR)
(nimh, I had a prof in college, a great teacher in econ, who, when caught saying or writing something wrong would say, with a wink, that it was a deliberate error just to see if anyone was paying attention. NH goes to Mr Kerry. NM goes to Mr Bush).
AR may be in play and sending Mr Clinton there could work. I've noted before I thought the Dems could have utilized Mr Edwards better in the rural parts of the border states (WV, VA, MO, NC).
Tradesports.com has had Bush running ahead of Kerry since the Republican Convention.
The highest Bush has been bid is 66.6 (these are points, but for simplicities sake, make it %)
The lowest was 48.8
Bush is currently bidding at 51.2
I'd say Bush wins by an electoral landslide.
