On October 7th, a single member transacted several large Kerry trades, and the abberational spike occurred,
I certainly hope not.
www.electoral-vote.com - Bush 285 Kerry 247
With something like 15 states within the margin of error. Sheesh.
Can't believe it's the last week before the election already, I would encourage all of you to go out and vote.
Cycloptichorn
<freaking>A week from TOMORROW!!</freaking>
timberlandko wrote:Just to expand on nimh's mention of today's Zogby:
(Click Graphic For Details)
Heh.
Then again:
(From yesterday, admittedly, data for today isn't in yet.)
Still - what Zogby writes about the Hispanic vote is positively alarming. Especially with FL, NM and CO in play.
OCCOM BILL wrote:nimh wrote:The Butterfly ballot joke this time is on the Republicans: this is what the ballot looks like in Cuyahoga County, Ohio.
Note that Bush voters are to punch the
red box over there on the top, number 4; not the green box right next to Bush's name. Wonder how many people will get this wrong. Who
makes these ballot forms? Idjuts.
Then again, after seeing the barrage of Republicans ridiculing Democrat voters for being too stupid or too lazy to even find the right box to punch last time in Florida, it'll be fun to see them react when this time, it's Ohio where it goes down to the wire. Will they protest when it turns out many Cuyahoga County voters voted "14"? Or will they be consistent and laugh at their own supporters for being so stupid?
Is that for real?
Ya know what, looking at it again, it appears someone deleted the "1" from in front of the names. I don't think this is real.
Quote:Ya know what, looking at it again, it appears someone deleted the "1" from in front of the names. I don't think this is real.
Heh. OK, full disclosure - I havent got a clue whether its real or not.
Dales (of the electoral college breakdown site) posted the link to the
Mens News Daily page that had this ballot reproduced, and he juxtaposed it with news on one of the county's election officials resigning. The
comments section of his post now has a lot of people researching indications of the ballot being real or not. There's an AP story apparently that does reference problems on the county's ballot with arrows and numbers, but whether it's really like this, not sure - Mens News Daily isnt exactly the WaPo.
Cycloptichorn wrote:Quote:Still - what Zogby writes about the Hispanic vote is positively alarming. Especially with FL, NM and CO in play.
Can someone elaborate?
I was referring to Timber's post above, where he wrote:
Pollster Jonn Zogby wrote:
The Hispanic vote is crucial for Kerry to tip the balance his way in New Mexico, and perhaps his only hope of winning Colorado (don't know about Nevada, probably too). In Florida, the Hispanic vote has been indicated to be in flux this year, with more Cubans than usual leaning to the Democrat but more of the other Hispanics leaning to Bush this year.
I thought that looked a little tooooooooo blatant for anyone to try.
Rasmussen daily tracking poll shocker:
Bush 46,4 (-1,2)
Kerry 48,4 (+1,2)
Quote:Monday October 25, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows Senator John Kerry with 48% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 46%. [..]
This is the first time Senator Kerry has held the lead since August 23. The 48.4% for Kerry is the Senator's highest total since August 17. Data for this update is collected on a three-day rolling average basis and Senator Kerry held the lead on each of the three days of polling.
When "leaners" are included, Kerry leads 49% to 48%. Leaners are those who initially do not express a preference for Bush or Kerry. We ask them a follow-up question to determine which way they are leaning at the moment.
For the first time in a month, the number saying the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror and the number saying Bush is a better leader than Kerry both dipped below 50%.
I like this bit in particular: "Senator Kerry held the lead on each of the three days of polling". Sometimes daily tracking polls suddenly veer this way or that because they had an unrepresentatively inclined one-day sample that hugely favoured one or the other candidate. But this poll is based on three samples in a row
each preferring Kerry over Bush.
What?!?!?!?
Rasmussen has Kerry ahead?
I don't believe it.
Cycloptichorn
Oh my!
Sure hope that's not true about the Ohio ballots. (I'll be able to tell you for sure in omigodaweekfromtomorrow.) This election already has sooooo many things to complicate it, the more straightforward, the better, even if the payback would be sweet.
Nimh wrote
Quote:Yet here we are, a butterfly ballot that will disadvantage the Republican side - and ladies and gentlemen, we have the first post in that assigns blame for it to the other side.
It was a joke Nimh. I would bet even money McG doesn't think Dr. Seuss wrote it either. Didn't have time though to check out to see which party was in charge of printing the ballots. It will be interesting though to see if Republicans are more literate and intelligent and able to read directions won't it?
Heh, thats true.
Well, actually, since the lower educated and seniors (who for simplicity's sake we'll assume to have more problems reading complicated ballots) are generally shown to vote more often Democrat than the average voter (though neither in the latest ABC/WaPo poll), I guess Republicans might actually be shown to have slightly less problems ...
But less hope it was just a net joke.
Meanwhile, what does it all mean?
Zogby, often reproached for polling overly Kerry-friendly, today had Bush widening his lead by 1 point to 3%.
TIPP, which last spring polled Bush-friendly numbers compared with the average of polls, but throughout September had results up to 5% better for Kerry than the average, now has Bush in a whopping 8% lead - up 7 points in three days.
But ABC/WaPo, which throughout most of the campaign has been polling results relatively favourable to Bush (compared with the average), today has Kerry in the lead by 1%, 49% to 48% - which is 2 points better for Kerry than yesterday's poll, and 5 points better than the day before yesterday's.
And as Cyclo already gasped - Rasmussen, who throughout the campaign must have had Kerry in the lead less than any other poll, now has Kerry ahead, by 2 full points even, after polling new Kerry-inclined samples three days in a row.
What does it all mean?
Or, as the whining kid said to his parents in the car:
"Are we there yet?"
I think what we're seein' is a sorta settlin' down and weedin' out of the undecideds, and the transfer of some loyalties from Nader and the other also-rans to viable candidates. Its not at all unusual to see tightening of spreads and even transitory lead changes among different polls as things wind to a close. I really doubt there is, or will be, any momentum shift, particularly given the internals of the state-by-state polls in the battlegrounds. The Friday-Saturday releases this weekend, being all week-day samples, will prolly show a fairly evenly distributed 3-to-5 point Bush lead. Next week, Wednesday's Op-Eds are prolly gonna be full of opinionatin' on "How Kerry - And The Pollsters Who Thought It Was Gonna Be Close - Blew It".
