If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

What does it all mean?

The New Yorker has made the first political endorsement in its 80-year history, backing U.S. Sen. John Kerry in next week's presidential election.

The magazine says the Bush administration's record "has been one of failure, arrogance, and _ strikingly for a team that prided itself on crisp professionalism _ incompetence" and that Kerry "has demonstrated steadiness and sturdiness of character" throughout his career.

The five-page editorial in the Nov. 1 issue criticizes President Bush's tax cuts, his environmental policies, his execution of the war in Iraq and his Justice Department's record of "secrecy and arrogance."

On the environment, the magazine says, "By stripping away restrictions on the use of federal lands, often through little-advertised rule changes, the administration has potentially opened up 60 million acres, an area larger than Indiana and Iowa combined, to logging, mining and oil exploration."

Of Iraq it says that "the cakewalk led over a cliff, to a succession of heedless and disastrous mistakes that leave one wondering, at the very least, how the Pentagon's civilian leadership remains intact and the president's sense of infallibility undisturbed."

"In every crucial area of concern to Americans (the economy, health care, the environment, Social Security, the judiciary, national security, foreign policy, the war in Iraq, the fight against terrorism), Kerry offers a clear, corrective alternative to Bush's curious blend of smugness, radicalism, and demagoguery," The New Yorker says.

The editorial criticizes Kerry for an "uneven" performance on the stump and says, "He can be cautious to a fault, overeager to acknowledge every angle of an issue; and his reluctance to expose the administration's appalling record bluntly and relentlessly until very late in the race was a missed opportunity." But it adds, "He is plainly the better choice."

Asked why the magazine was endorsing a candidate for the first time, spokeswoman Perri Dorset said, "We believe this is a very critical election and an important time in our country and we decided we want to make a statement about it."

I really doubt there is, or will be, any momentum shift [..]. The Friday-Saturday releases this weekend, being all week-day samples, will prolly show a fairly evenly distributed 3-to-5 point Bush lead.

I don't see a 3-to-5 point Bush lead as any sort of momentum shift, nimh, I see it as where the momentum is going. Its also right where RCP puts it