If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

I dunno about the cell phones, mentioned that as one of many things in the mix -- I think the huge number of new voter registrations and the impossibility of knowing how many will translate to actual votes is far more significant.

I've seen the cellphone-only thing convincingly calculated out as pretty much insignificant in several places (no link at hand, sorry).

But Soz is right, the big question is about new voters. How many will there be? They're not included in most "likely voter" samples and though polling results for the "registered voter" samples have been even more all over the place (some showing distinctly better results for Kerry than in the LV sample, others actually showing Bush doing marginally better), it could all in all yield a Dem advantage. Especially in battleground states like Ohio where the Dems have been shown to have massively outdone Republican efforts in voter registration.

And then there's the question of those undecideds, however few percent there are left, and whether they really will break towards the incumbent as now is suggested is the rule - or not, just like they didnt in '92 and '76.

Timber is probably right too, though - if either candidate is up by 3% or more in the average of all last polls, then he would be very unlikely to miss out on victory.

By the way, don't know if this goes here but not sure where it does go and I wanted to vent -- some stupid stupid idiots stole my Kerry/ Edwards yard sign!!!! Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr...

Meanwhile, today's TIPP tracking poll has Bush widening his lead by 2 points to 6% (49/43). But Rasmussen has his lead narrowing by 1 point to a mere 0,4%: 47.6%/47.2%, with Rasmussen adding: "When "leaners" are included, each candidate gains about a point-and-a-half."

(Odd - the previous four days Rasmussen did give the actual numbers for the sample including leaners. Wonder why not now. If he had, it might have gotten the poll its first tie between the candidates in two weeks.)

And (just to plug my aversion against the Western versus the edges-of-the-south strategy), today's state polls include two that put Bush's lead in Nevada at 2-4% - and one that has the race a tie in Arkansas.

Plus, a second poll in a row that has Bush ahead by 1 point in Hawaii. (Imagine Hawaii decides the election, last result in - now that would be some course of events).

Probably kids. In 1984, we knocked down every Mondale/Ferraro sign in the city limits. At the time we thought it was the single greatest, funniest stunt in history. Truth be told, it still makes me smile.

Good call, O'Bill. How it happened was actually that last night I was telling E.G. about a group of kids who I thought were scoping out the sign yesterday. I saw them right after I flicked on a light in the kitchen and there seemed to be an "oops someone's home" tremor that went through the group. I don't remember what it was, but my last sentence ended with "the sign." E.G. looked out the window, then went to the front door and opened it, and said "What sign?" That's exactly what he would say regardless so I was like uh-huh right but nope, they really took it.

We're gonna put in another one of course, and E.G.'s hatching plans of stakeouts. "I get to drink a lot of coffee on stakeouts, right?" He would so love to catch a kid and frog-march him home.

Heh. When I was a kid and we were leafletting the neighbourhood, I would always pull out the ones from the other parties, if they still had a corner sticking out the mailbox ...

Today's WaPo tracking poll:
Bush 49 (-1)
Kerry 48 (+2)

Our assault vehicle was 1973 VW Superbeetle. We'd skid to a halt, depending on how many signs were nearby 1 to 3 people would jump out armed with axe handles or BB bats and just shatter the cheap wooden posts, then run like nuts back to the assault vehicle. Took about a week of after school time to get them all. We got one property 3 times and still never got caught. Good luck!

Have you noticed the Packers are "at will" against the Cowboys? :smile:

(Yes, Bill, I noticed that the Packers - the 2 win/4 loss Packers - are finally doing something right). So what was the idea in ripping down political signs? For that matter, what is the idea in putting up political signs?

More on that Incumbent Rule by Mystery Pollster.

Note the replies too - where someone quotes Daly as debunking the Incumbent Rule, but also where Shawn (Shawn | October 22, 2004 10:07 AM) debunks Daly's article.

Totally doesn't belong here but hot DAMN! I tuned in when it was 10-6. Whole lotta fun stuff happened after that. :-D :-D :-D

Today's Reuters/Zogby tracking poll has Bush expanding his lead by 1 point to 48%/45%:


Link

The Butterfly ballot joke this time is on the Republicans: this is what the ballot looks like in Cuyahoga County, Ohio.



Note that Bush voters are to punch the red box over there on the top, number 4; not the green box right next to Bush's name. Wonder how many people will get this wrong. Who makes these ballot forms? Idjuts.

Then again, after seeing the barrage of Republicans ridiculing Democrat voters for being too stupid or too lazy to even find the right box to punch last time in Florida, it'll be fun to see them react when this time, it's Ohio where it goes down to the wire. Will they protest when it turns out many Cuyahoga County voters voted "14"? Or will they be consistent and laugh at their own supporters for being so stupid?

Who designs these things, Dr. Suess?

No, Democrats.

See? <grins>

When the Florida ballot form disadvantaged the Democrats, Republican pundits and posters snidely commented that Democrats were just whining, and that you'd need to be as stupid as a Democrat to get that thing wrong.

Yet here we are, a butterfly ballot that will disadvantage the Republican side - and ladies and gentlemen, we have the first post in that assigns blame for it to the other side.

<grins>

<grins too>

In Ohio, huh? Wow.

Any opinions on whether Clinton will be a boost or a detriment? I'm optimistic that it may be a boost. His speech at the Democratic Convention was the single most rousing, inspiring one on the subject of Kerry (including speeches BY Kerry) that I've ever seen.

Just to expand on nimh's mention of today's Zogby:


(Click Graphic For Details)


Today's TIPP Daily Tracking Poll shows a net 6 point pickup for Bush over the Friday-Sunday period. Here too, the appearance is that "Undecided" is not breaking for Kerry.

Over at IEM, the current Winner-Takes-All tick (10:00AM CST 10/25 B .605/K .389 Last) continues to trend actively away from Kerry as it has over the past two weeks' nightly close:



while the Vote Share Market follows suite.



TradeSports echoes the roughly 3-to-2 Bush advantage, The Incumbent up 1.9 on the day, the challenger off 1.0, 58.8/41.0 respectively.

All in all, not only does it not look good for The Kerry Kamp, it looks a bit more bleak day-by-day for those anticipating even a close election.

What happened October 7th?