If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

Nimh the one platoon is a tiny anecdotal instance and, of course, is being blown out of all proportion by a press who wishes to make it look like another monumental disaster in the war.

Whether the opposition 'support' is considered support by the opposition is irrelevent to the troops themselves. To hear a candidate for president say that it is 'the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time' is a cruel slap in the face to them and is essentially declaring them a failure. They resent it, and no amount of spin will change that.

In a three-way race with Independent candidate Ralph Nader, 48 percent of all voters say they would reelect Bush while 46 percent prefer Kerry.

Removing Nader, who draws just 1 percent of the vote, bumps the Kerry-Edwards ticket up to 47 percent, reducing the incumbent's statistically insignificant lead to one point [..] Before the debates began on Sept. 30, the Republican ticket held a commanding 11-point lead.

Results based on likely voters (as opposed to all registered voters) give Bush the edge, with Bush-Cheney pulling 50 percent of the vote and Kerry-Edwards drawing 44 percent in a three-way race (Nader still gets 1 percent). This suggests that turnout will be critical in determining the outcome of the election: Kerry now leads Bush 57 percent to 36 percent among those who identify themselves as first-time voters. The number of voters who say they are still open to switching candidates is actually fairly small, but still large enough to determine the popular vote winner: One in ten (11 percent) registered voters are still uncommitted.

Bush has a clear advantage with women, who prefer him 49 percent to 43 percent. Kerry has a slight edge with men, 50 percent to 46 percent. The Democrat also commands 50 percent of the youth vote (with Bush at 41 percent) and 54 percent of the senior vote (to Bush's 39 percent.) But Bush dominates the 30-49 set (56 percent to 39 percent).

Among the 64 percent of all registered voters who say they watched at least some of the latest debate, which focused largely on domestic issues, most (44 percent) declare Kerry the winner while 36 percent say Bush outperformed his challenger. Sixteen percent call it a draw (61 percent picked Kerry as the winner of the first debate). Kerry is viewed by debate-watchers as having a better command on the issues (49 to 43 percent), seeming more confident and self-assured (53 to 39 percent) and more likely to understand the concerns of "people like you" (49 to 43 percent). Still, Bush's demeanor on Wednesday led more people to see him as more personally likeable (48 to 43 percent).

[..] based on what they have learned from all debates, a quarter (25 percent) of the country's voters say they have become more inclined to vote for Kerry, compared to 16 percent who say they have been swayed by Bush. But most (56 percent) say the debates have had no difference in choosing who gets their vote.

Terrorism and the war in Iraq still rank highest (26 percent and 20 percent respectively) on the list of issues that will determine who voters choose. On both issues, Bush is the stronger candidate: He is preferred on terrorism 54 to 38 percent and on Iraq 51 to 41 percent. Kerry is stronger on key domestic issues. In order if importance to voters, Kerry is preferred to Bush on the economy (48 to 45 percent), health care and Medicare (50 to 42 percent), and American jobs and foreign competition (49 to 40 percent).

The two are tied at 45 percent on education, which comes next on voters' list of priorities. Bush's record of cutting taxes is preferred to Kerry's tax plan, 49 to 42 percent. Issues less pivotal to voters are the environment (51 to 34 percent in Kerry's favor), gay marriage (41 to 39 percent in Bush's favor), stem-cell research (54 to 32 percent in Kerry's favor) and abortion (44 to 42 percent in Bush's favor). [..]

Meanwhile, the president's approval ratings remain below the halfway mark (47 percent) for the second time since the GOP convention in late August. Nearly half of all voters (48 percent) still say they do not want to see Bush reelected, while 47 percent say they do. And more than half (55 percent) are dissatisfied with "the way things are going in this country" (compared to 40 percent satisfied).

Do you really buy into this shyt...or are you just spouting the party line?

Frank writes

Quote:

Do you really buy into this shyt...or are you just spouting the party line?

Frank I am unashamedly pro military and get the vast bulk of information from people who are or have been in Iraq. Unless you have a plethora of friends who say that mutinies are rampant and the troops are about to stage a mass rebellion, I'm going to go with what my friends and family tell me. If the press gave 1/10th as much play on all the heroic accomplishments of our men and women over there, if they give 1/10th as much play to the truly amazing and wonderful gppd that is being done as they do to one minor incident, I think we'd have most of our people coming home already.

It's a free country. You are free to paint things as black as you wish. As is the U.S. media. I think to do so gives great aid and comfort to the terrorists and puts our citizens and our allies at far greater risk and is making it much more difficult to do their job.

nimh, in that the MOE typically is somewhere between 3 to 4 points at the 95% Confidence Level, any lead equal to or less than the MOE can be considered "Too close to call".

13/10 average:
Bush 53.9 Kerry 46.6
13/10 last:
Bush 54.0 Kerry 46.2
14/10 average:
Bush 54.3 Kerry 46.1
14/10 last:
Bush 54.9 Kerry 45.0

Frank Apisa wrote:

Bush is out...Kerry will be our next president. And you can go to the bank with that.

All the rest of this stuff is bullshyt.

Hey Frank; did you get any of that action when B.O.S. had a Kerry victory paying over 2 to 1 a couple weeks ago?

He's still +120 as opposed to Bush's -160 putting his odds at 7 to 5.

Btw, I know you know as well as I know how well these guys know what they know, ya know?

Same story in the Casinos.

OCCOM BILL wrote:

Frank Apisa wrote:

Bush is out...Kerry will be our next president. And you can go to the bank with that.

All the rest of this stuff is bullshyt.

Hey Frank; did you get any of that action when B.O.S. had a Kerry victory paying over 2 to 1 a couple weeks ago?

He's still +120 as opposed to Bush's -160 putting his odds at 7 to 5.

Btw, I know you know as well as I know how well these guys know what they know, ya know?

This was 3 days ago. Today the numbers are:
Bush -200 (means you have to wager $200 to $100 back)
Kerry+150 (means if you wager $100 you'll get back $150)

What do you think Frank,... bullshyt?