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If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

 
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 01:11 pm
Lash,

http://www.austinwide.com/vfl.php?lid=392

Check out the Austin Homeless advocate. I've been reading it off and on for a few years. Many members of our homeless community here in Austin sell them and make a good amount of money (enough to eat that day, at least).

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 01:11 pm
Shocked And years back, "Holland" has been our great example how it should work ... Shocked Shocked
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 01:12 pm
Lash wrote:
Street News is a good idea. They sell TO street people? This is of no interest to employed people? (Thinking of trying to co-opt the idea.)

The Street News Association (or what its called) sells papers for, what is it, 1 guilders 25 cents (in old currency) per paper to the homeless person, who sells it on to us all for 2 guilders 50 cents and may keep the profit he makes. The 1,25 per paper helps keep the paper running while the second 1,25 per paper helps make the homeless person something akin to a minimum wage. Plus the whole set-up makes it more of a real job, you put something in get more out, personal responsibility and everything.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 01:15 pm
[I'm sure, they sell the papers like elsewhere for EUROs]

The price and 'system' seems to be the same in all countries:

http://www.street-papers.com/

http://www.bigissue.com/intl.html
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timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 01:21 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Whole new topic, perhaps?

This is a good discussion.

Cycloptichorn


Yeah, I'm with you there ... it is a good discussion, and it seems already to have progressed from a sidebar digression to an entirely new topic already occupying 4 or 5 consecutive pages on its own. Maybe it oughtta be split off by itself. Any body else think so, too - or does anybody object to the idea of a spn-off? Anybody wanna volunteer a title for the spin-off topic if thats what it comes to?
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 01:22 pm
Lash wrote:
Your situ looks very much like ours, except you have the added assist for the addicted (and places to get them off the street). Most of our shelters are for night only--

It was more or less born out of necessity. Basically, there was this tunnel underneath the shopping centre, by the railway station, where all the users would gather. It was hell - living hell. Imagine a near-endless driveway into a parking garage, and dozens of druggies day and night shooting up, lying down, dealers abounding - a living nightmare. They cleaned the place out, it would fill up again.

As I remember, the left had been pushing for a more human solution (like the day user centers) for a while, but the right didnt want to spend the money on it, also was afraid of being seen to tolerate drug use too much, and besides, who wants one of those in the neighbourhood? But the shopping centre is to be wholly renewed, with new offices and shops and everything (Utrecht City Plan) - so a solution had to be found, and eventually they did agree to setting up these user spaces.

I would have to delve into it to really get the details - but thats what I know/remember of it.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 01:30 pm
timberlandko wrote:
Yeah, I'm with you there ... it is a good discussion, and it seems already to have progressed from a sidebar digression to an entirely new topic already occupying 4 or 5 consecutive pages on its own. Maybe it oughtta be split off by itself. Any body else think so, too - or does anybody object to the idea of a spn-off? Anybody wanna volunteer a title for the spin-off topic if thats what it comes to?

Oh yeah OK, sure ... we did go OT there ...

I thought at first Cyclo meant to start a new thread on it still, but so much has already been said ... but if it's actually possible to split off the above posts on homelessness etc into a thread of their own, that would be great of course! (Craven once did that with a personal thread of mine when we'd gotten all into hip-hop instead).

Title? Err, I dunno ... something straightforward? "Out on the street - homelessness in Europe and the US"?
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 02:42 pm
Lash wrote:
Cyclop--Actually, unless I find new information, I do give Reagan a large share of the blame for that. But, one man can't have that much of an impact ALONE. Glad you brought it up, though. I do want to look a little deeper.


Actually the first and largest exodus came under the Carter Presidency - it was done in the interest of releasing people from "involuntary" confinement in "mental hospitals". These had previously been the agencies of state and local governments - the Federal govermnment wasn't very much involved. The Feds were lured in to regulate them and budget demands soon followed. Reagan generally resisted the most ambitious proposals for Federal management or assistance to them.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 03:02 pm
It did continue under the Reagan administration, I believe, but as George points out, it was the initiative of such groups as the ACLU and their sympathizers who demanded that those who were no danger to themselves or others be allowed to leave involuntary confinement. The rationale was that civil rights were being infringed and the people were somehow being mistreated. It was one of those cases where good intentions had very bad unintended consequences.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 03:05 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
It was one of those cases where good intentions had very bad unintended consequences.

Yeah, I think it went out of hand ... partly because of the unlucky combination with slashing budget cuts and pressure from above to be more "efficient".
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DontTreadOnMe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 03:08 pm
Larry434 wrote:
DontTreadOnMe wrote:
nimh wrote:
Of the four states, Bush's approval rating is lowest in Ohio, where factory closings and unemployment hang like a cloud over the president's re-election hopes. [..]

hey, nimh. gross gott.

a lot of people, i think, are starting to figure out that there isn't much point in keeping america safe if there is no america left to keep safe.

might as well get hit by a dirty bomb if ya can't afford to put food on the family.


Are you aware of anywhere in the U.S. anyone has to go to bed hungry, other than cases of parental abuse of children?



hey folks. hope all are well today.

the intent of my comment was really aimed more at the people in the country that have lost their standard of living in tha last 4 years and even more, there are still people in the appalachians (and other parts of the country) that still live in unbelievable poverty.

dirt floors, shambling fall down houses, no shoes, sparse, if any, health care, etc. all in all, not the american dream.

but, most of these folks would rather die than go live in a shelter. their pride simply does not allow for that option.

a similar state of mind is present for most of those that have lost their job to outsourcing, downsizing and technical advances.

they are told that they can retrain for a new job. but that was said to them a decade ago. "learn how to work on a computer. you'll be alright."
and now those jobs are being outsourced as well.

there are some companies that have realized that there are pitfalls to outsourcing, and they send percieved profits into the red. a few have elected to relocate call centers and such to smaller towns and report for the most part that they are beginning to see a benefit.

of course, i do not want further harm to come to our country. however, i think it's important to remember that the fall of the soviet union had more to do with their allocation of something like 50+% of their budget to the military. we simply sent them into bankruptcy. that said, i believe we are in danger of a similar mindset taking center stage. in other words, there's more to life than the "terrorist threat".

and to answer larry's question. yeah i have seen people's kids go to bed hungry under some of these conditions.

but rather than enlarge the wellfare state, i'd rather see american business and government work towards regaining the manufacturing base that we used to have. it does not seem logical to me that a country with ambitions of world leadership doesn't make anything anymore.

hopefully, i've explained my meaning here, although in a hurry.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 03:10 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
... it was the initiative of such groups as the ACLU and their sympathizers who demanded that those who were no danger to themselves or others be allowed to leave involuntary confinement.


Hmm. I didn't speak of those - that's the smallest number at all. (Without a court ruling, you can't stay longer than 24 hours in involuntarily confinement. And judges supervise the medical advantages continuently.)
Everyone in a hospital for mentally ill can leave (generally) when she/he wants to - on own risk - as from any other hospital.
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Larry434
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 03:15 pm
"and to answer larry's question. yeah i have seen people's kids go to bed hungry under some of these conditions"

If I saw a kid about to go to bed hungry, I would feed him.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 03:19 pm
DTOM writes:
Quote:
the intent of my comment was really aimed more at the people in the country that have lost their standard of living in tha last 4 years and even more, there are still people in the appalachians (and other parts of the country) that still live in unbelievable poverty.


Some years ago, my husband and I lived in West Virginia in the heart of Appalachia for awhile. It is true that many people in that part of the world don't live in big fancy houses. It is also true that all of them seem to be able to afford automobiles, television sets, have a garden in the back yard, and at that time West Virginia had the highest percentage of home ownership in the country. Poverty is relative--many who have small incomes still have beans on the table and a roof over their heads. Given a choice of their lifestyle or moving to a big busy place with more financial opportunity, all we talked to opted to stay where they were. Some were eligible for welfare and food stamps, but nobody was starving.

Poverty is established by income in this country. The national poverty threshhold supports a family in some parts of the country, perhaps not in grand style, but it supports them. In other parts of the country the same income won't cover even part of the rent.

Otherwise personal income is sharply up in the last four years. No doubt some have suffered loss in standard of living as that happens to some every single year, but many others have seen an improvement.

It's all relative.
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timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 03:41 pm
Well, good intentions and all, but it seems technical issues prevent putting the homeless in a home of their own right now.

Anyhow, forgive me for being so rude as ignore that and return to this thread's topic ...

Today's Rasmussen, Bush 48, Kerry 46 (rounded) is an effective 1-point Bush pickup from yesterday's 47-46 1-point spread, though looking at the fractions, there was only a .2 Bush move, from 47.4 to 47.6, while Kerry moved up .4, from 45.8 to 46.2. Really, no statistically significant change for either. Over the month so far, Bush has not been below 47.2%, while Kerry has not been above 47.0% by Rasmussen's view. For the same period, Rasmussen has reported Bush Job approval, currently shown at 52%, has not been below 51%

Over at ABC/WaPo Tracking, the Oct 12 chart shows Bush at 50%, Kerry at 47%, a net 2-point Kerry gain from Monday's results. It'll be interesting to see if this evening's results indicate any sorta trend, or if both remain within the ranges each have established in that series.

Last night's IEM Midnight Close, Bush .587, Kerry .456 reflects a slight tick up for Bush and a small downtick for Kerry compared to Monday's midnight figures, which were .541 Bush, .459 Kerry. Currently, Bush is trading a bit below last night's close, with Bush at .532 Last, while Kerry at .468 Last is doing a little better. Volume for both is light, understandable as traders await tonight's debate.

RealClearPolitics 3-way Average (polls through Oct. 12) has a 2.2 point Bush lead, 47.7% vs Kerry's 45.5%. The 2-way there is a 1.3 point Bush advantage, 47.5% Bush, 46.2% Kerry.

Zogby shows a second day at a 45-45 tie, which is a point up for Bush and two points down for Kerry compared with the Monday call.

It appears going into tonight's debate, things remain pretty much as they have been for a good long while now, a probable, if slight and essentially static Bush lead, no momentum to speak of one way or the other, for either contender. Will The Final Debate change things much? I seriously doubt it. Both candidates will spar and jab and occasionally score, and pundits and spokefolks on both sides will again spin like turbine blades in a jet blast, in equal-but-opposite directions, succeeding mostly in cancelling one another.

Kerry has less than 3 weeks left in which to sieze the initiative and shift the momentum. Running right up there with the leader matters little at race end unless a pass can be made, then held to the finish line.
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DontTreadOnMe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 03:42 pm
Larry434 wrote:
"and to answer larry's question. yeah i have seen people's kids go to bed hungry under some of these conditions"

If I saw a kid about to go to bed hungry, I would feed him.


and sometimes i have larry. but there are people who see that as charity, a thing that offends them. i don't think it's right, but you can only go so far with people on that score.
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Larry434
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 03:44 pm
DontTreadOnMe wrote:
Larry434 wrote:
"and to answer larry's question. yeah i have seen people's kids go to bed hungry under some of these conditions"

If I saw a kid about to go to bed hungry, I would feed him.


and sometimes i have larry. but there are people who see that as charity, a thing that offends them. i don't think it's right, but you can only go so far with people on that score.


I would add that I would contact a local agency and advise them of the name and address of the hungry people I have seen. They would no longer go to bed hungry.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 03:52 pm
Timber writes
Quote:
Kerry has less than 3 weeks left in which to sieze the initiative and shift the momentum. Running right up there with the leader matters little at race end unless a pass can be made, then held to the finish line.


It was reported recently that Kerry has already retained a bank of lawyers to start filing suits to challenge the count in close states. I don't think he figures to have a substantial advantage on election day. Smile
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 03:55 pm
Both of 'em have, Fox. Its what happens afer an elections like you had four years ago.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 04:04 pm
It's possible Nimh, but I hang pretty close to the GOP election process here and I do believe get ALL the mailings, strategy e-mails, etc. and I haven't heard that from the Bush side. I'm not going to say they haven't, but it has sure been kept under wraps if they have.
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