New bunch of Chicago Tribune state polls out. They got Kerry ahead by 4% in both Ohio and Wisconsin! On the other hand, it's just 2% in Minnesota, and in Iowa he's actually behind on Bush by 2%.
Mind you, all with a 4.4% MoE.
Quote:The poll found that likely voters in the four states place a greater importance on health care and jobs than they do on terrorism, moral issues or taxes. When asked to name their top concern, voters in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin listed health care most commonly, while those in Ohio said the loss of jobs. [..]
Of the four states, Bush's approval rating is lowest in Ohio, where factory closings and unemployment hang like a cloud over the president's re-election hopes. [..]
Just 43 percent of likely voters in the Buckeye State say they approve of the job Bush is doing, while 50 percent disapprove. Seven percent say they have no opinion.
Bush's approval rating is a few points higher in Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin, but remains below 50 percent in all three states
That's from
this article; lots in there about an again increasing gender gap as well.
Though the above suggests that "it's the economy, stupid" (or at least domestic issues in the wider sense), and that Kerry is thus making the right gamble in how he steered away from Iraq and towards home issues again since the last debate, there is an interesting near-exact correlation in how well he's doing in these states and what the people's impression there is of the war in Iraq:
Quote:In each of the four states, the electorate is nearly evenly divided when likely voters were asked if America is winning the war in Iraq, losing the war or if it is too soon to make a determination. Though Bush has built his re-election around fighting terrorism, only a slim majority of voters in each of the four states believe military action in Iraq is part of the broader war on terror.
Iowans are slightly more optimistic than voters in other states, with 33 percent saying they believe America is winning, compared to 27 percent in Ohio and Wisconsin, and 28 percent in Minnesota.