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If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

 
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 04:18 am
New bunch of Chicago Tribune state polls out. They got Kerry ahead by 4% in both Ohio and Wisconsin! On the other hand, it's just 2% in Minnesota, and in Iowa he's actually behind on Bush by 2%.

Mind you, all with a 4.4% MoE.

Quote:
The poll found that likely voters in the four states place a greater importance on health care and jobs than they do on terrorism, moral issues or taxes. When asked to name their top concern, voters in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin listed health care most commonly, while those in Ohio said the loss of jobs. [..]

Of the four states, Bush's approval rating is lowest in Ohio, where factory closings and unemployment hang like a cloud over the president's re-election hopes. [..]

Just 43 percent of likely voters in the Buckeye State say they approve of the job Bush is doing, while 50 percent disapprove. Seven percent say they have no opinion.

Bush's approval rating is a few points higher in Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin, but remains below 50 percent in all three states


That's from this article; lots in there about an again increasing gender gap as well.

Though the above suggests that "it's the economy, stupid" (or at least domestic issues in the wider sense), and that Kerry is thus making the right gamble in how he steered away from Iraq and towards home issues again since the last debate, there is an interesting near-exact correlation in how well he's doing in these states and what the people's impression there is of the war in Iraq:

Quote:
In each of the four states, the electorate is nearly evenly divided when likely voters were asked if America is winning the war in Iraq, losing the war or if it is too soon to make a determination. Though Bush has built his re-election around fighting terrorism, only a slim majority of voters in each of the four states believe military action in Iraq is part of the broader war on terror.

Iowans are slightly more optimistic than voters in other states, with 33 percent saying they believe America is winning, compared to 27 percent in Ohio and Wisconsin, and 28 percent in Minnesota.
0 Replies
 
DontTreadOnMe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 06:07 am
nimh wrote:
Of the four states, Bush's approval rating is lowest in Ohio, where factory closings and unemployment hang like a cloud over the president's re-election hopes. [..]

hey, nimh. gross gott.

a lot of people, i think, are starting to figure out that there isn't much point in keeping america safe if there is no america left to keep safe.

might as well get hit by a dirty bomb if ya can't afford to put food on the family.
0 Replies
 
Larry434
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 06:11 am
DontTreadOnMe wrote:
nimh wrote:
Of the four states, Bush's approval rating is lowest in Ohio, where factory closings and unemployment hang like a cloud over the president's re-election hopes. [..]

hey, nimh. gross gott.

a lot of people, i think, are starting to figure out that there isn't much point in keeping america safe if there is no america left to keep safe.

might as well get hit by a dirty bomb if ya can't afford to put food on the family.


Are you aware of anywhere in the U.S. anyone has to go to bed hungry, other than cases of parental abuse of children?
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 06:43 am
Lots of homeless people, Larry.
0 Replies
 
Larry434
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 07:22 am
nimh wrote:
Lots of homeless people, Larry.


Lots of homeless shelters and churches and missions where they can get food as well.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 07:26 am
That's true. Americans are maybe the most charity minded people on the planet and there is no community with homeless/needy people anywhere that does not have local social and/or government services to help. Nobody has to go hungry here.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 07:58 am
Foxfyre wrote:
Americans are maybe the most charity minded people on the planet and there is no community with homeless/needy people anywhere that does not have local social and/or government services to help. Nobody has to go hungry here.


I know that's another theme, but I wonder, why charities here don't want to have "American states" :wink:
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 08:01 am
Hmm. I don't understand the question Walter. What do you mean by "American states'?
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 08:08 am
Probably that charities here often warn against "American situations", when they outline the kind of insufficient care they see looming large in this time of budget cuts.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 08:08 am
Larry434 wrote:
nimh wrote:
Lots of homeless people, Larry.


Lots of homeless shelters and churches and missions where they can get food as well.

But not enough.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 08:10 am
Not enough? How much is enough?
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 08:26 am
nimh wrote:
Probably that charities here often warn against "American situations", when they outline the kind of insufficient care they see looming large in this time of budget cuts.


Right - thanks, for BE/AE/German translation, nimh! :wink:
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 08:29 am
Foxfyre wrote:
Not enough? How much is enough?

Enough for noone to have to sleep outside when it's cold and for noone to go without a proper meal.

That shouldn't be too much to ask in the wealthiest countries of the world.

It'd still leave plenty of incentive for them to try to do something themselves about their lives to move it up beyond merely not going hungry.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 08:29 am
Foxfyre wrote:
Not enough? How much is enough?


Foxfyre wrote:
Americans are maybe the most charity minded people on the planet ...


Well, for some it seems that in some other countries this is done ... differently. :wink:
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 08:36 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Well, for some it seems that in some other countries this is done ... differently. :wink:

I was shocked when I went to the States with my father ... back in, what was it, 1988 ... New York City, all those homeless people, on every streetcorner, people just stepping over them - I had never seen anything like that in my life. Shocked

Of course, things have drastically deteriorated on this score in my own country since as well ... definitely here in Utrecht, which must be the city with the second-highest concentration of homeless in Holland (because of the huge trainstation-area inside shopping centre). But I've never seen it as bad anywhere as it was there back then.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 08:36 am
Actually there are plenty of shelters, both those furnished by local government and those furnished by charities. Nobody has to sleep out in the cold and, in fact, when the temperatures drop to dangerous levels, most cities send out patrols to round up any homeless on the street and get them to a shelter.

Many of our homeless do not want to help themselves. They beg on street corners but refuse offers of work despite the "Will work for food" sign they are holding. The begging can be quite lucrative. As an experiment, one local news figure donned ratty clothes, made him a "Will work for food" sign, and staked out a street corner. He collected $22 in less than an hour which wasn't too shabby. (He gave it to charity.)

This is not to say that all homeless are intentional bums and for some, it is a temporary situation. Some are mentally ill or addicts, but there is help for those too if they are willing to accept it. The government will not force them to accept it unless they are a danger to themselves or others.

But please do not fall for the liberal rhetoric that American neglect forces people to go hungry or sleep in the cold. It simply is not true.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 08:46 am
Well, I've worked with homeless people here in some of the bigger cities (actually, my students did so :wink: ), and see the situation similar: those, who don't want to live in homeless apartments/houses for long, can go to night rooms/shelters. And even those, who don't want to do that for various reasons, are quite good cared by e.g. streetworkers, volunteers ... and of cause the daily money from the town/city.

Collegues from our partner university - Juniata College, Huntingdon, Pen - were quite surprised.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 09:05 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Collegues from our partner university - Juniata College, Huntingdon, Pen - were quite surprised.

On a similar note, I will never forget the American visitor I showed around in Munich once. Like most German cities, Munich has many allotment gardens along the railroad tracks ("Schrebergärten"). We moved mostly by commuter train, so my guest saw a lot of them, and he watched them with great interest. At one point, after we had passed yet another allotment, he gave me an amazed look and said: "Remarkable -- even the slums are nice here in Munich!"
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 09:07 am
.... and when I was young (very, very young, I mean :wink: ), I thaught those Bavarians to be stupid, because they gave their garden to the English.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2004 09:10 am
Wink
0 Replies
 
 

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