If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

More than half of respondents (59%) say that John Kerry won the first presidential debate last Thursday, while one in five (21%) favor President Bush's performance.

Fifty-seven percent believe that Kerry looked most presidential, while nearly half (49%) agree with Bush on issues.

The post convention bounce for Bush is over and his biggest hurdle is among undecided voters who give him a 31 percent positive job performance rating and a 69 percent negative rating. Only 13 percent of undecided voters feel that the president deserves re-election (his lowest yet) while 37 percent feel it is time for someone new.

The debate did not markedly alter perceptions of Bush one way or another, leaving him with an advantage over Kerry on such personal characteristics as strong leadership and likeability. But [..] four weeks from Election Day, the presidential race is a dead heat, with Bush having given up the gains he enjoyed for the last month following the Republican convention in New York City, the poll found. [..]

Bush's job approval rating remained just below 50 percent, putting him close to what has traditionally been a danger zone for an incumbent seeking reelection. His approval ratings for his handling of foreign policy, Iraq and the economy were even lower, and a majority of respondents said the country was on the wrong track.

The poll suggested that Kerry's strategy of hammering away at his rival's handling of the war might be resonating among voters.

Asked what kind of job Bush had done in anticipating what would happen in Iraq as a result of the war, 59 percent said he had done a poor job and 34 percent said a good job.

A slight majority, 52 percent, said the United States had been too quick to go to war in Iraq, compared with 37 percent who said the timing was about right.

But Bush's strategy of portraying Kerry as an unprincipled flip-flopper appears to have stuck in the national consciousness.

Sixty percent of registered voters said the Democrat tells people what they want to hear, about the same level as throughout the spring and summer.

Kerry did show strong gains in several measures of his leadership.

Forty-one percent of registered voters said they had confidence in his ability to deal wisely with an international crisis, up from 32 percent before the debate.

Thirty-nine percent of registered voters said they had a lot of confidence that Kerry would make the right decisions when it comes to protecting against a terrorist attack, up 13 percentage points from before the debate Thursday in Coral Gables, Florida.

But on both scores, Kerry remained behind the president.

Fifty one percent of voters said they had confidence in Bush's ability to deal with an international crisis, unchanged from before the debate.

What's ultimately essential is who votes, and current polling suggest higher-than-usual turnout. Interest is high, and registration drives across the country may be having an effect. Compared to an ABC News/Washington Post poll at this time in 2000, Americans are six points more likely to say they're registered to vote; and registered voters are six points more likely to say they're certain to vote, and 18 points more likely to be following the election very closely.

While registration, interest and voting intention bear watching, horse-race results in this poll are essentially the same with and without new or occasional voters in the sample.

<looks around for Timber>

Still think all indicators are pointing towards Bush, Timber?


Cycloptichorn

Would love to see where it goes with all post-debate polls.