If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

Kerry's Image Gets Boost From First Debate

WASHINGTON -- John F. Kerry improved his image with voters who watched his debate with President Bush last week but didn't significantly shift their choice in the presidential race, a Los Angeles Times Poll of debate viewers has found.

While the debate generally did not diminish impressions of Bush on most questions, it did restore some of the luster Kerry had lost amid relentless Republican pounding since his party's convention in July, the poll found. [..]

More than three times as many of the people who watched Thursday's debate chose Kerry rather than Bush as the winner, the poll found. The Democratic nominee also made modest but consistent gains with viewers questions relating to national security and strength of leadership. And the percentage of debate viewers with a favorable perception of Kerry increased from 52 percent before to 57 percent after.

Kerry's most dramatic advance in the survey came in convincing more voters that he has a thorough agenda for the next four years. Asked which candidate had the more detailed plan for the policies he would pursue if elected, those who watched the debate gave Bush a nine-percentage point edge before the encounter; afterward, they preferred Kerry by four percentage points.

"I thought (Kerry) did remarkably well within that format," said Joanne Sullivan, a registered Republican from Bremen, Maine. "He was very specific and went from Point A to Point B so much better than the platitudes that emerged from George Bush's side."

These survey results reflect attitudes only among registered voters who watched the debate. In that sense, their views are more apt to change than the views among voters overall, as many of them did not watch the debate.

The poll, conducted Thursday night and Friday, surveyed 1,368 registered voters who participated in a Times survey last week and agreed to be contacted after the Sept. 30 debate. Among the group, 725 voters said they had, in fact, watched the debate; it is their attitudes the poll reports. The poll, supervised by polling director Susan Pinkus, has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

[..] the voters who watched the matchup preferred Kerry by 48 percent to 47 percent for Bush even before the debate. After the debate, viewers divided almost exactly the same way, with 49 percent favoring Kerry, 47 percent Bush.

That tracks with other post-debate polls showing improvements in Kerry's image but generally little immediate change in the horse race. The exception is a Newsweek poll conducted Thursday night through Saturday in which Kerry led Bush, 49 percent to 46 percent among registered voters

[..] As for the candidates' performance, viewers gave Kerry the edge on almost all questions. Before the debate, more of those who watched said they expected Bush to win than Kerry. But by a resounding 54 percent to 15 percent, viewers said they believed Kerry did a better job; independents who watched the debate preferred Kerry to Bush by more than 5-1.

Before the debate, debate watchers divided evenly on whether they expected Bush or Kerry to appear most knowledgeable. But, by 42 percent to 29 percent, viewers said they believed Kerry had seemed more knowledgeable.

By just more than 2-1 viewers said Kerry was more effective at delivering his message. By more than 3-1 viewers said Kerry was more effective at responding under pressure. Viewers split nearly in half on whether Kerry or the president had seemed "most presidential," with Kerry leading 40 percent to 38 percent.

Perhaps most striking was the verdict on which candidate had displayed the strongest personality and character. Before the debate, by more than 2-to-1, the viewers had expected Bush to make the best impression. After, they preferred Kerry to Bush by 40 percent to 33 percent.

Overall, Kerry's performance had many Democrats breathing a sigh of relief, and even some Bush supporters tipping their hat.

John Harvey, a union carpenter from Douglasville Ga., was worried that "Kerry wouldn't know what he was talking about" on the war and foreign policy.

But after watching, he said, "I think Kerry just got his point over better. When they were showing the split screen, every time Kerry said anything critical. ... Bush's lip would quiver like a little kid."

Added Ivan Searcy, a self-employed Democrat from Redondo Beach, Calif.: "I had become somewhat disappointed in (Kerry) as a candidate. Now I feel happier with his position after the debate. He was really able to stand right there with Bush."

[..] Viewers were more likely to say Kerry attacked his opponent than Bush -- although half felt that neither attacked more than the other. Likewise, while more voters said the president had made a mistake during the debate than Kerry, about half felt that neither had erred.

These reviews generated a consistent pattern on broader questions about the two men. Attitudes toward Bush generally didn't deteriorate. But assessments of Kerry did improve.

Among those who watched, Bush's approval rating after the debate was unchanged from before, with 49 percent approving and 50 percent disapproving. Likewise, Bush's favorability rating among debate viewers actually improved slightly (although within the survey's margin of error). Before the debate, 51 percent of the watchers viewed Bush favorably and 49 percent unfavorably; after, the numbers were 52 percent and 47 percent.

Kerry, though, made bigger gains among viewers. On the most basic measure, the percentage of viewers with a favorable impression of him increased from 52 percent before the debate to 57 percent after; the percentage with an unfavorable impression dropped from 46 percent to 41 percent.

Kerry gained ground on every issue and personal characteristic that the survey measured.

Before the debate, viewers gave Bush a seven-percentage point advantage when asked which man would provide strong leadership for the country; after the debate, Bush's advantage was two.

Viewers gave Bush a four-percentage point advantage before the debate, when asked which man has the honesty and integrity to serve as president; after, viewers gave Kerry a one-percentage point edge.

Likewise, before the debate, viewers gave Bush a two-percentage point advantage when asked who would be a stronger commander-in-chief; after, they split evenly.

Attitudes on Iraq showed the same modest movement in Kerry's direction. Before the debate, the viewers preferred Bush over Kerry by one percentage point when asked which man is more likely to develop a plan for success in Iraq; after, they preferred Kerry by three percentage points.

Bush retained a big lead among debate watchers on handling terrorism, but even there his advantage was trimmed from 14 to 10 percentage points. Among the debate viewers, Kerry's edge on handling the economy widened from six percentage points before to 13 after.

Among those who watched, Bush's position eroded on another key question. Before the debate, 43 percent of viewers agreed that "the country is better off" because of his policies, while 53 percent said the nation needed to "move in a new direction."

After the debate, the percentage of viewers who wanted to continue in Bush' s direction dropped to 39 percent and the share preferring a new direction increased to 57 percent.

One striking indicator close to home was a telephone poll Friday of 942 registered voters in St. Louis County by Survey St. Louis, a company that works for many Republican candidates. The debate had virtually no effect on voters who said they had already been leaning toward Kerry or Bush, the survey found. But those who said they had been undecided were breaking for Kerry by a ratio of more than 4-to-1.

I had Art Bell incidentally running in the background while I was working last night and he cited a statistic I had not seen before, namely that in our lifetime, no presidential candidate who was perceived to have won the first debate of the campaign went on to win the election

As Deadlines Hit, Rolls of Voters Show Big Surge

A record surge of potential new voters has swamped boards of election from Pennsylvania to Oregon, as the biggest of the crucial swing states reach registration deadlines today. Elections officials have had to add staff and equipment, push well beyond budgets and work around the clock to process the registrations.

In Montgomery County, Pa., the elections staff has been working nights and weekends since the week before Labor Day to process the crush of registrations - some 32,000 since May and counting. Today is the deadline for registering new voters in Pennsylvania, as well as Ohio, Michigan, Florida and 12 other states, and election workers will go on mandatory overtime to chip away at the thousands of forms that have been arriving daily. [..]

Across the county line in Philadelphia, overtime and weekend duty began in July to deal with what is now the highest number of new voter registrations in 21 years. The office says it is still six days behind the flow, and the last two days have brought about 10,500 new registration forms. At 204,000, the number of new registrations has already surpassed that of the last big year, 1992, which had 193,000. [..]

Officials across the country report similar patterns. [..]

Registration numbers are impossible to tally nationwide, and how many of the newly registered will vote is a matter of some debate. But it is clear the pace is particularly high in urban areas of swing states, where independent Democratic groups and community organizations have been running a huge voter registration campaign for just over a year.

The parties have been registering voters as well, with Republicans especially active in critical states in an effort to counter the independent groups.

In Cleveland, the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections has spent $200,000 on temporary workers this year to deal with a wave of 230,000 new registrations, more than double the number in 2000. The number of registrations in Tallahassee, Fla., is up 20 percent since the presidential primary in March. And St. Louis is reporting the largest growth ever in potential new voters.

"We are moving toward having the largest number of registered voters in the history of St. Louis County," said David Welch, one of the directors of elections.

Las Vegas added 3,000 to 4,000 voters a week in 2000 but is doing triple that this year, forcing the office to hire 30 additional workers. The elections director said he was getting 3,000 new cards a day last week. [..]

A coalition of nonpartisan groups called National Voice announced last week a push for an additional 200,000 registrations in the last days. Project Vote, the nonpartisan arm of the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, which claims more than a million registrations in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Washington and other states, planned to have its largest force of paid workers on the streets over the weekend registering people to vote.

These nonpartisan community groups, as well as Democratic organizations like America Coming Together, have driven most of the increase, registration officials say. In Florida and Ohio, Republicans have mounted moderately successful campaigns that have increased registration in suburban communities.

But the huge gains have come in areas with minority and low-income populations. In some of those areas in Ohio, new registrations have quadrupled from 2000. President Bush won in Ohio in 2000 by 165,019 votes.

It is harder to say what is driving the registration increase in Montgomery County, which is still considered "a Republican town" even though it went for Mr. Gore in 2000 and Bill Clinton before that. One of the wealthiest counties in Pennsylvania, it has had a lot of new building in recent years. But it also has working-class communities and is about 10 percent minority, and the community organizations say they have worked hard to register people here. [..]

The big unknown is whether the new registrations will result in higher turnout. Election officials say some of the big groups seem to be signing up anyone on the streets to reach quotas, with half-filled-out forms suggesting something less than true enthusiasm.

Nevertheless, registration officials are expecting frantic deadline days; offices in Philadelphia and Miami-Dade County, Fla., will stay open until midnight. Matt Damschroder, the elections director in Columbus, Ohio, will post workers on the street outside the building to take registrations.

"Almost to an April 15, I.R.S. post office type of operation," Mr. Damschroder said. "We're expecting that it's going to be folks coming in by the truckload." He has had 12 people working around the clock in 12-hour shifts, six days a week, to keep up with the flow, but he is still two days behind.

Jacksonville, Fla., has hired 14 people since August, putting everyone on seven-day workweeks, 12 hours a day. Oregon's deadline is not until Oct. 12, but the state elections division has started sending registration cards to the counties daily instead of weekly to keep up with the pace of applicants. Marion County, which includes Salem, has tripled its staff, from 4 to 12.

In rural areas and in nonswing states, the picture is less extreme. The three employees in the elections office in Putnam County, Ohio, said they were handling new registrations with no problem. In largely uncontested South Carolina, Greenville County officials said the pace was about what it was in 2000, and in California, which has traditionally backed the Democratic candidate in presidential races, registrations in Los Angeles County were actually running below the level of four years ago. Yet in suburban Cook County, Illinois, outside Chicago, workers processed 46,000 registrations in September, the biggest monthly total since 1992.

Many elections offices said they had increased their overtime budgets in anticipation of a healthy increase in registration this year. But, as Michael Vu, the director in Cuyahoga County, said, "I don't think 100,000 extra voters was in anyone's plan."

Registration campaigns are usually reserved for August and September of election years. This round, the wave started early, with independent groups organizing in crucial states like Ohio last year. During the spring and summer, partisan and nonpartisan groups sent out hundreds of paid workers, and many swing states showed unusually early swells in registration in March, April and May.

There was some question whether the August and September peaks would be lower as a result, but elections officials in many places reported that their September numbers were higher than normal.

Ms. Maxwell, of the League of Women Voters, noted that surges in registration have sometimes dissolved in disappointing turnout. But last year in the Philadelphia mayor's race, independent groups that registered thousands of new voters claimed their turnout was nearly as high as that in the rest of the electorate. Steve Rosenthal, the Democratic chief executive of America Coming Together, said 44 percent of the 85,000 voters his organization registered last year turned out, compared with 49 percent over all.

Republicans, who have also shown huge success with face-to-face turnout campaigns in recent elections, say their voters are more committed and will be easier to get to the polls than Democrats. [..]

"It's going to be insane," said Tim Dowling, who was opening registration forms in Philadelphia. He corrected himself: "It's already insane. It's been nuts since June."