Some thoughts on the internals of that Democracy Corps poll, and some othr updated observations:
Q.6 Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you
feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Pre/Post
Right direction 43 / 46
Wrong track 56 53
Right - Wrong -13 / -7
A tilt away from "Wrong Direction"
Advantage: Bush
Q.7 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as president?
Strongly approve 27 / 31
Somewhat approve 24 / 21
Somewhat disapprove 14 / 14
Strongly disapprove 35 / 34
Total Approve 51 / 52
Total Disapprove 49 / 48
A tilt away from "Disapprove"
Advantage: Bush
Q.15 Thinking about the elections in November, if the candidates for President were Republican George
Bush, Democrat John Kerry and Independent Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote?
John Kerry 44 / 47
Lean John Kerry 2 / 1
George Bush 49 / 49
Lean George Bush 1 / 1
Ralph Nader 2 / 1
Lean Ralph Nader 0 / 0
Not sure 2 / 2
Total John Kerry 46 / 48
Total George Bush 50 / 50
Total Ralph Nader 2 / 1
John Kerry - George Bush -4 / -2
About the only "Good News bit here for Kerry, a tilt in his direction, though he remains at a deficit.
Advantage: Kerry
Significant here, I think, though, is that Bush's support did not decline as Kerry's increased. If anything, Nader and "Not Sure" gave Kerry his boost, while Bush took no hit. I suspect that when push comes to shove, Nov. 2, Kerry will benefit through actually receiving some, most likely even most, but by no means all, of the votes currently declared for Nader, but I'm not at all sure which way "Unsure" is likely to go. Historically, "Unsure" tends to break for an incumbent if one is running. Given the spread between Kerry and Bush, Kerry needs to capture all of the Nader vote and all of the "Unsure" vote to prevail. That would be an unlikely eventuality.
Q.16 Even though you are not supporting Democrat John Kerry now, what are the chances that you might
support Kerry in the election for President in November -- is there a fair chance that you might support
him, a small chance, just a very slight chance or no chance at all that you might support him?
A fair chance 4 / 2
A small chance 4 / 4
Just a very slight chance 10 / 9
No chance at all 36 / 37
A tilt away from Kerry
Advantage: None (See below, Q.17)
Q.17 Even though you are not supporting Republican George Bush now, what are the chances that you
might support Bush in the election for President in November -- is there a fair chance that you might
support him, a small chance, just a very slight chance or no chance at all that you might support him?
A fair chance 2 / 2
A small chance 5 / 3
Just a very slight chance 7 / 6
No chance at all 37 / 39
A tilt away from Bush
Advantage: None (See above, Q.16)
Essentially, this looks to be more or less a wash; marginally fewer folks post-debate "Lean" toward either candidate. It appears minds are increasingly made up, with fewer folks both in the "Unsure" column and in the "Pretty sure, but maybe the other candidate" column.
Q.18 Now let me ask overall, do you think the country should continue in the direction Bush is headed or
go in a significantly different direction?
Different direction strongly 46 / 45
Different direction somewhat 7 / 7
Bush direction not so strongly 12 / 7
Bush direction strongly 35 / 41
Refused - -
Total Different direction 53 / 52
Total Bush direction 47 / 48
A tilt toward Bush
Advantage: Bush
Rasmussen gives Kerry a 1-point bounce in today's release, Bush 49, Kerry 46 (vs yesterday's Bush 48, kerry 45), which includes only one full post-debate day of sampling. The commentary, however, mentions that yesterday's results were "similar" to those from the previous day. Also mentioned is that 6% of those responding said the debate had changed their mind, with Kerry getting a slight edge, 3% now voting for Kerry, 2% for Bush, and 1% who are now undecided.
Meanwhile, the Sept 30 Electoral College projection from Rasmussen shows Bush holding for an 8th consecutive day at his high-for-the-year 213, while over the same period has steadily fallen from 207 to his current 167 ... his lowest of the year. In mid-July, Kerry enjoyed a 254/197 advantage. Since first crossing the 200 mark in late August, Bush has trended steadily upward.
Over at
Electoral-Vote, the current map show Kerry with 238, Bush with 296, vs yesterday's Kerry 221, Bush 276, so that's a gsin for both, Bush up 20, Kerry up 17, reflecting modest shift in Battleground State trendings.
Tradesports has Kerry up and Bush down a couple, though Bush maintains a slightly-better-than-3-to-2 lead at 60.6/38.0.
At
IEM, Kerry's WTA Composite is at 38.2 vs 62.5 for Bush, remaining a 3-to-2 Bush advantage despite recent Kerry gains/Bush declines.
Its really too soon after the debate to determine what, if any, lasting effect there might have been. I'm reminded that Gore was touted immediately post-debate as the clear winner, a perception which changed over the next few days, and that Perot was widely seen to have won his first debate, possibly even his second. Has the momentum shifted toward Kerry? I would think it optimistic at best to consider that such might be the case. We shall see.
All in all, I believe this all shows that very little really has changed, and that while Kerry has, at least momentarily, narrowed his deficit, Bush has strengthened marginally among a number of key internals within various polls. The top line "Who ya gonna vote for" figure gets the Media attention, of course. It has tended to fluctuate across a relatively narrow range, though with a consistent, essentially narrow, Bush lead, whatever the momentary magnitude of that lead. Now, this is conjecture on my part, but bear with me a bit, please. I think the "Who ya gonna vote for" answer given to pollsters may tend to be something of a snap decision, "mood at the moment" thing, subject to being pushed a bit one way or the other with that morning's headlines. On the other hand, I believe the answers to the internals tell a stronger story, and will, in the voting booth, have a stronger effect on voter decision than tham any recent headlines. If that is so, and if things continue to trend as they appear be going, there isn't as yet much good news at all for Kerry.
