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If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

 
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jul, 2004 09:31 am
Yeah, Soz, Iron Mike was floated as a possible Ryan replacement, but thought better of it. And folks wonder why this is called "The Silly Season".
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jul, 2004 10:40 am
I just read about that in today's paper. Homer Simpson was also suggested. ("He lives in Springfield...") And pizza.

It's kind of cool that nobody seems to want to go against Obama. Really like that guy.
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McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jul, 2004 10:47 am
Obama... Osama... I wonder if that has anything to do with it....
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jul, 2004 10:51 am
hmmm ... perhaps you can do some diligent research on it ... Mr. Green
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timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jul, 2004 11:12 am
ROTFLMAO ... and wipin' coffespray from my monitor Laughing
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McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jul, 2004 11:16 am
Hey now... Is this the level of debate that we want here? Mad
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timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jul, 2004 12:09 pm
You've never heard of Gonzo Journalism?

Quote:
MIKE DITKA'S OUT, TED NUGENT IN?[/size]

Another name surfacing in the Illinois GOP Senate race is that of rocker, outspoken conservative and gun rights activist Ted Neugent.

'He grew up in Arlington Heights. He went to Saint Viator High School,' said Cook County Republican Chairman Gary Skoien.

'He has more connection to Illinois than Hillary Clinton has to New York, and he's been a very articulate spokesman on constitutional issues. He would be a very interesting candidate.'

Nugent couldn't be reached for comment Wednesday night.

Meanwhile democratic candidate Obama reportedly has $7 million in campaign funds, said he is keeping his focus on the issues, not his potential opponent.

'It is part of this cult of celebrity that is so prominentin our culture. That's just the way it is, I think we all accept it. That would have been true if Jerry Springer had gotten in, he was talking about running in Ohio.'


My, my ... sillier and sillier by the minute, it seems.
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PDiddie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jul, 2004 12:15 pm
McGentrix wrote:
Obama... Osama... I wonder if that has anything to do with it....


Makes as much sense as the link between Iraq and al-Qaeda...
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McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jul, 2004 12:16 pm
It was a joke. I hadn't heard about the mass exodus of the collective sense of humor. Sorry.
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timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jul, 2004 12:19 pm
And the silliness spreads unabated .... Rolling Eyes

Seems silliness may be a gas ... it sure follows Avogadro's law, expanding as it does to fill the available space.
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jul, 2004 12:46 pm
Now that you mention it, Timber, this does feel like the last time I had some silly gas at the dentist....

Only I was in a better mood then Smile .

Cycloptichorn
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jul, 2004 12:49 pm
McGentrix wrote:
It was a joke. I hadn't heard about the mass exodus of the collective sense of humor. Sorry.

Mass exodus? Cause we made a joke right back atcha? Hey, you can dish it out, you can take it, you're a big guy ... ;-)
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McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jul, 2004 12:59 pm
I apologize if I missed the humor. I have been in a rather defensive mood the past week or two. If it was meant as light humor, no problem.
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timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jul, 2004 01:41 pm
Boy, we're havin fun now, eh, kids?

Whutta gas Twisted Evil

BTW, Hope you're feelin' better soon, McG. Oh, and keep smilin' .. it drives 'em nuts :wink:
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jul, 2004 02:09 pm
McGentrix wrote:
I apologize if I missed the humor. I have been in a rather defensive mood the past week or two.

No problem. We all get like that sometimes when the other people play the us vs them game too stridently.
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jul, 2004 05:06 pm
Good evening.... McGentrix: The "humor" went over my head, too!
There are very few players here and we all know each others' political stripings, don't we? No need for sniping unless, I guess, its being done for the fun of it.
I admire nimh for his incredible knowledge of and interest in US politics. His graphs are really pretty.

I'm surprised that while Kerry/Edwards got a bounce there appeared to be no movement towards the Dems in NC and the other border states. After the convention, perhaps, Edwards will go out on his own.

Mr Bush did not speak at the NAACP convention. How much, if at all, will that hurt him in Nov amongst Black voters?

Thank you. -johnboy-
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timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jul, 2004 05:25 pm
In 1988, Dukakis led Bush the Elder by as much as 14 points in early June polls, achieving a 17 point average across several polls taken shortly after after the Democratic convention.Throughout most of the campaign season, his lead was consistenly double-digit. He wound up losing the popular vote by around 7 points, roughly 47,946,000 votes going Republican versus about 41,016,000 for the Democratic candidates, which translated to an Electoral College defeat for Dukakis of nearly 4-to-1, 426 to 111.
Now, that may or may not say anything for the contest currently underway, but it is precisely and specifically what happened then.

And it certainly says more than a little something about polls, particularly those this far from the election.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jul, 2004 05:32 pm
rjb, the "diligent research" quip was in reference to a talk we were having on another thread, thaz why Timber had to laugh ...

Meanwhile, the humour of the Obama/Osama "joke" must have gone over my head, cause tho I guessed it wasn't serious, it still seemed as inane as such stuff ever comes ... <shrugs>. But then McG does usually wield a blunt axe when it comes to humour (or otherwise), whether its about Democrat pols or any of us left-leaning posters. Well, if thats his style we just gotta live with it I guess, but then dont get all upset when the axe occasionally swings the other way, is what I say ... <shrugs again>

Anyway, as for your questions, the NC data seems contradictory (a small bounce or a large set-back?), while in SC the Dem ticket did move up, tho a direct comparison cant be drawn ... SurveyUSA poll this week has Bush up by "only" 7%, while other previous polls had him up by anything between 10-17%.

I dont think the NAACP thing makes much difference one way or another outside political circles ...

So there you have it, my takes on stuff. For whatever any of it's worth <shrugs>. Glad you think my graphs are pretty.
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ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Jul, 2004 07:41 pm
Making me laugh out loud with the imagery.
Ah, go on...
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PDiddie
 
  1  
Reply Fri 16 Jul, 2004 02:13 pm
Tennessee polls a dead heat, after showing Bush with an 18-point lead less than a month ago...

Quote:
A poll conducted by Zogby International after Kerry introduced the North Carolina senator as his vice presidential pick indicates that the Massachusetts senator was in a flat-out tie with President Bush in Tennessee, with both at 48 percent. A Zogby poll less than a month earlier indicated Bush was leading by 18 percentage points.


Boston.com

The Volunteer State will move back and forth between now and Election Day, but for it to move this much suggests a volatility that makes it anybody's ballgame. Cool
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