If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

Does mebbe look like an Edwards Bounce there, nimh. Forgive me for echoing some of what you just posted, but I already had alla this in Notepad Mr. Green

Rasmussen today shows a 49/45 Kerry-Edwards lead, a net 5 point pickup. Perhaps the best news for Kerry in today's results is that his 49% showing is the first time since the field narrowed to 2 either candidate has topped the 48 mark. Less encouraging for The Challenger, however, are his showings vs The Incumbent re "Who do you think best can handle" National Defense/War on Terror, an 8 point Kerry deficit, and The Economy, where he posts a 2 point deficit. Working to The incumbent's favor are his 42% "Good to Excellent" approval level for handling the economy, with 20% "Fair" and 37% "Poor", a 4 point pickup week-over-week and the best showing since Kerry wrapped up The Nomination. More troubling yet for The Challenger is that The Incumbent's overall Job Approval rating of 52% maintains a consistent 50%-or-higher run across all but 3 of the past 16 days, as well as being the 4th straight day at 51% or better.

0 Replies

A new Newsweek poll (the first since mid-May):

51% - Kerry-Edwards
45% - Bush/Cheney

Compared to Newsweeks mid-May poll, that's +5% for Kerry, while Bush is holding steady - which means Kerry-Edwards won over a bunch of the undecideds.

If you include Nader, however, the Kerry lead shrinks to a statistically insignificant 3 points: Kerry 47%, Bush 44%, Nader 3%.

Also, Bush's job approval rebounded since mid-May, with 48% approving (+6%) and 46% disapproving (-6%).

Below, excerpts from MSNBC's write-up, which focuses mainly on the good Edwards seems to be doing.

So in short - something for everyone. ;-)

Quote:

The Vice Squad
John Edwards may win in a popularity contest against Dick Cheney, but the two campaigns are tied as Bush's approval ratings climb back up

0 Replies

6 of the 7 polls that appeared in July thus far (not counting the daily Rasmussen ones) have Kerry-Edwards in the lead - by anything between 2% and 11%.

Perhaps it should also be noted that for the past two months, not a single poll except for the last Fox one has had Bush up by more than 2%.

RealClearPolitics' average of the last six polls now shows a 5,4% Kerry lead, whereas the six before would have shown one of less than 1%.

Hey, things are looking up just a little bit after all!

0 Replies

Here's my latest graphs on those two-way polls ...

The average of polls from the first ten days of July out so far shows a 5,2% bounce compared to the average of polls in the last 10 days of June.

(Mind you, "outlying" polls like the overnight NBC/WSJ one this week and the Fox one in late June do really pull the numbers further apart ...)

http://home.wanadoo.nl/anepiphany/images/bush-kerry_midjuly.gif

http://home.wanadoo.nl/anepiphany/images/bush-kerry_average_midjuly.gif

0 Replies

(You people still reading this thread?)

Some new polls out again.

The newest CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll (July 8-11) has:

50% - Kerry/Edwards
46% - Bush/Cheney

Compared to its last poll 2-3 weeks ago, that's a 5%-swing to Kerry: back then, it was 49% for Bush and 48% for Kerry.

The newest Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP poll (July 6-10) has:

49% - Kerry
44% - Bush

That's a 5%-swing to Kerry; three weeks ago, the poll had both at 44%. As in the Newsweek poll, Bush is holding steady but Kerry is harvesting the "don't knows".

Havent updated the graph above yet but the average wont be much different than its now.

About that Newsweek poll (overall results see above), the three-way numbers are also broken down by group. Thus, the poll shows Kerry/Edwards leading Bush/Cheney 50% to 42% among women, 51% to 38% among those between 18-29, 49% to 43% among those beween 30-49, 55% to 36% among the urban population, 64% to 28% among non-whites and even 46% to 44% among non-Southern whites. Bush/Cheney is leading among men (47 to 44), Southern whites (60 to 35), those 50+ (48 to 44), the rural population (49 to 39) and, if only barely, suburbians (47 to 46).

Impressively, the poll has Independents currently going for Kerry by 53% to 34%.

0 Replies

Current Presidential Betting Line as of 13JUL04

Republican Party
5/6

Democratic Party
11/10

BOLD marks current front runner on odds line

Source: Here

0 Replies

Over at IEM ,

http://www.able2know.com/gallery/albums/userpics/10156/normal_b-kvshr712.jpg

"Real Money" doesn't seem to be moving noticeably in Kerry's favor, though things have tightened up a bit over the past week.

0 Replies

Yes, still reading the thread, and thanks for all the work, nimh.

0 Replies

All these from Survey USA, with dates and margins of error and trends where applicable:

Florida (.pdf; as are all that follow)
7/9-11. MoE 3.7%. (6/15 results)

Kerry 47 (43)
Bush 44 (50)

The 6/15 poll was conducted immediately following the week-long coverage of Reagan's death.

Kerry leads in Southeast Florida by 26 points, Bush leads by 8 points in the rest of the state. Kerry leads among women by 12 points, among moderates by 24 points, and among independents by 10 points.

Arkansas
7/6-8. MoE 4.3%. (4/16 results)

Bush 49 (47)
Kerry 47 (45)

Bush leds 4-3 among whites, Kerry 8-1 among blacks. Bush leads by 38 points among those earning more than $80K/year. Kerry leads by 16 points among those earning less than $40K/year. Independents are breaking 5-4 for Bush.

Missouri
7/6-8. MoE 3.6%. (No trend lines.)

Bush 48
Kerry 46

Kerry leads in union households by 24 points, Bush in non-union households by 11. Kerry is up 7 in St. Louis, tied in KC, down 15 in central Missouri, and down 19 in the Ozarks.

Virginia
7/6-8. MoE 3.8%. (No trend lines.)

Bush 50
Kerry 45

Kerry leads among those under 34, and wins women by 6 points. Bush leads in all older age groups, and leads men by 15. Independent voters are split. Kerry leads moderates 4-3. He wins DC suburbs by 12 points, loses Shenandoah by 17, loses Southeast VA by 15, and loses central VA by 4.

0 Replies

Great, PDiddie! Good news from Florida and Arkansas and Missouri looking nicely competitive as well. IMHO, just winning one of the two would correlate with a nice Kerry victory.

I'm kinda glad, cause the June batches of Rasmussen state polls have mostly looked pretty good for Kerry, and now we have a second opinion on some of those.

Meanwhile, thanks to Dales I now know that you should distrust a sudden spike in a daily tracking poll, and wait to see whether it lasts after the third day ...

Well, this one at Rasmussen's does. "Kerry has now been ahead by 3 points or more in our Tracking Poll for four consecutive days." ;-)

0 Replies

updated the graphs above

0 Replies

Two quotes about the latest WaPo poll, which has Bush and Kerry both at 46% and Nader at 2% (no two-way race included, dammit):

One, from the WaPo news article: Americans now in majority believe the Iraq war wasn't worth fighting for - and less than half believes America is winning the war against terrorism. Yet a majority nevertheless trusts Bush more than Kerry to fight that war. Its an interesting paradox.

On a positive note, Kerry does seem to be closing the perceptions gap on such matters. That's important, considering that one would think that if the voters keep believing that America's losing the war against terrorism, they will eventually conclude that the guy losing it isn't perhaps then the best one to fight it - by then, Kerry needs to have become a credible alternative.

Quote:

[..] The survey found that 55 percent of Americans approve of the way Bush is handling the campaign against terrorism, up five points in the past three weeks. Slightly more than half -- 51 percent -- also said they trust Bush more than Kerry to deal with terrorism, while 42 percent prefer the Democrat. Three weeks ago, the two were tied on this crucial voting issue.

But other results were less favorable for the president and underscored the growing unease with the war in Iraq and the state of the U.S.-led international war on terrorism.

For the first time in Post polls this year, less than half of the country -- 46 percent -- said the United States is winning the war on terrorism, down eight points since April.

At the same time, the proportion of the public who say the war with Iraq was not worth fighting has grown to 53 percent, a record high.

[..] At the same time, Kerry may be closing the perceptions gap separating him from Bush on some key measures of leadership and performance. A majority of the public -- 55 percent -- said Kerry is a "strong leader," up from 52 percent in April. Although slightly more Americans -- 59 percent -- see Bush as a strong leader, his standing has dropped five points since April and 15 points in the past year. Similarly, Kerry has cut Bush's double-digit advantage on which candidate could be trusted to handle a crisis to four points since May.

Two, from the WaPo campaign newsletter: don't expect much of a bounce either way anymore now - there aint too much fish left in the pond! Interesting to see that for practically the first time, the Kerry leaners are more entrenched even than the Bush leaners. Thats definitely a new thing.

Quote:

The Post poll also shows that the pool of all-important swing voters appears to have nearly dried up. Seventy-six percent of Bush supporters say they will definitely vote to reelect the president, and another 14 percent say they're unlikely to change their minds. An even higher percentage of Kerry supporters -- 79 percent -- say they're locked in, and another 13 percent say they're unlikely to switch. To compare with the 2000 race for the White House, neither Bush nor former vice president Al Gore had such stalwart support from registered voters until mid-October.

0 Replies

You have anything on North Carolina, nimh?

0 Replies

Back in mid-June a pollster called Research 2000 had Bush up 47% to 42%, and Rasmussen's all-June poll had Bush up 49% to 42%. (See David Wissing - hey, I get tired quoting Dales all the time ;-))

Interestingly, a Gallup poll from this week (OK, here's the link to Dales' NC page) has Bush up by a whopping 56% to 41%. Federal Review and Election projection still have NC safely for Bush too.

0 Replies

Interesting, shades of Al Gore not winning his own state....

Thanks, nimh! :wink:

0 Replies

http://www.pollingreport.com/images/GALfavunfav.GIF

0 Replies

North Carolina update!

Mason-Dixon (hardly a pollster generally favouring the Dems) now has a poll out from 12 July, which has the margin back down to 3%: Bush 48%, Kerry 45%. Thats within the margin of error.

0 Replies

Catching up, interesting stuff, thanks indeed for the hard work, all you data-gatherers.

0 Replies

nimh wrote:

North Carolina update!

Mason-Dixon (hardly a pollster generally favouring the Dems) now has a poll out from 12 July, which has the margin back down to 3%: Bush 48%, Kerry 45%. Thats within the margin of error.

Considerably closer than I would have guessed.

This has really been another awful week for Republicans in general: they cannot find anyone to run for Senate in Illinois (Ditka just said no); Tom DeLay and several of his henchmen are on the cusp of indictment; Bush's poll numbers continue going south everywhere; talk of Cheney's being pushed off the ticket won't abate despite protestations to the contrary, the Senate calls up the FMA in order to attempt to embarrass Kerry and Edwards and instead make themselves look like fools...

It just goes on and on and on.

I think maybe Dubya needs to have a little talking-to with God. Mr. Green

0 Replies

Ditka?! You're serious??

0 Replies

If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

Related Topics

Quick Links

My Account

able2know