If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

Today's RealClearPolitics average, based on a sample period encompassing 6/21 through 7/7, shows a slight (0.8%) lead for The Incumbent, head-to-head. Both indicators remain well within their established mean deviation over the past 6 weeks or so, leading to the conclusion The Edwards Bump is transient if not illusory.

It is my perception, as stated before, that The Opposition gas been campaigning vigorously and non-stop since the beginning of the 2000 Primary Races, while The Incumbent has been otherwise occupied. That The Opposition, despite great effort and expense, and the absence of any concerted counter-effort,

The present situation, to my mind, is wonderfully, almost eerily, reminiscent of the earlier appearance of Governor Dean's invincibility,

Does the "absence of any concerted counter-effort" happen to include an 80-million attack ad campaign against the Dem contender?

Dean may have seemed "invincible" in the primary race, but surely you're not suggesting the media or even yer average mainstream Democrat back then believed Dean was invincible vis-a-vis Bush?

For that matter, I haven't seen much of a sense of "invincibility" among Democrats now, either ... well, PDiddie aside <grins>

Zogby July 8: Kerry/Edwards up by 2

Kerry-Edwards Pulls In Ahead of Bush-Cheney 48%-46%; No Big Bounce for Kerry; Country Still Evenly Divided in Red and Blue States; Nearly One in Ten Likely Voters Say that "Their Vote is Not Counted Accurately," New Zogby America Poll Reveals


The newly announced Democratic Presidential ticket of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards enters the race with a two point lead over President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney (48%-46%), according to a new Zogby America poll. The poll of 1008 likely voters was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday (July 6-7, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1

In a one on one match-up with the President, Kerry leads by two points (46%-44%), with 7% undecided. Kerry shows no significant bounce here in spite the recent announcement of his vice-presidential running mate.

AP/IPSOS: 4 point Bush lead "outside margin of error"
The AP-Ipsos poll found Bush leading Kerry just outside the margin of error, with the president's support at 49 percent, Kerry at 45 percent and independent candidate Ralph Nader at 3 percent. The Bush-Kerry matchup was tied a month ago, when Nader had 6 percent.

The three-day survey began Monday, the day before Kerry tapped Edwards as his running mate, and asked registered voters about the newly minted ticket on Tuesday and Wednesday. Half supported the Republican tandem of Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney while 46 percent backed the Kerry-Edwards ticket,

Dunno as I see any "worry" from The Conservative Camp.

A Long, Hard Slog Indeed
Crush Kerry dot com

Ronald Reagan is dead. William F. Buckley, Jr. has divested his interest in the flagship bulletin of the conservative movement, National Review. Rush Limbaugh, who provided color commentary throughout the right's ascendancy, has suffered legal harassment, drug addiction and a public divorce all in the same year.

Meanwhile, the Democrat nominee for president has just shattered the fundraising record. The top movie at the box office is an obese ignoramus's paranoid fantasy presented as hard evidence. The nation's number one book is the autobiography of a liberal ex-president who every day seems Hell-bent on telling more lies than the previous.

The media's bias, public opinion and even the campaign finance laws appear to favor an energized and ascendant radicalism bent on overturning all the good for which this great nation stands. Liberal columnists even predict a Democrat wipeout in November.

This is conservatism's darkest hour.

[..] So, what will you do? [..] Dedicate the majority of your free time to helping the president directly. Visit your state or local GOP office and ask "what needs doing?" Lick more envelopes, fold more letters, call more voters than the lady sitting next to you. Make a small, medium or large donation to the effort. Stay at headquarters an hour later than yesterday. Sleep comes in November.

You may miss some of your favorite television programs this summer. You'll have to put aside the novel your reading for a while. You will be called a "Nazi." You may even be pushed and shoved by a picketer or two. The struggle at times will seem long, hard and unrewarding.

But night is darkest just before the dawn.

Posted on Thursday, July 01 @ 07:43:15 EDT by admin

While Republicans are presenting Kerry and Edwards as the most liberal ticket ever, a majority of Americans say that John Edwards is a political moderate. Edwards is also viewed more favorably than the man he hopes to replace, Dick Cheney.

Kerry's VP Pick Doesn't Lead to Bounce in Michigan Poll

LANSING (AP) -- John Kerry's selection of John Edwards as his running mate has NOT given the Democratic ticket a big bounce in Michigan, a new poll shows.

Forty-seven percent of likely Michigan voters said they would vote for Kerry and Edwards if the election were held today. Forty-four percent backed President Bush and Vice President Cheney.

The numbers are similar to a poll conducted in early June, which had Kerry getting 47 percent and Bush with 45 percent.

Lansing-based EPIC/MRA conducted the poll of 600 likely voters from Tuesday through yesterday.

Posted 1:15 p.m., 7-9

Rasmussen:Ohio: Bush 46% Kerry 42%

July 9, 2004--In Ohio, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows President Bush with 46% of the vote and Senator Kerry with 42%. That four point edge matches Bush's margin of victory in the state four years ago. In Election 2000, it was Bush 50% Gore 46%.

Last month, it was Bush 46% Kerry 44% in our Ohio poll

SurveyUSA: Bush Leads Missouri, Virginia, 7/9/04
Missouri: Bush 48%, Kerry 46%, Other/Undecided 6%, MOE 3.6%
Virginia: Bush 50%, Kerry 45%, Other/Undecided 5%, MOE 3.8%

realjohn, if you see an Edwards Bounce, please let us all know where we can look at it.

EDWARDS VS. CHENEY: Time has a new poll out this afternoon confirming that, in general, Edwards is an asset to Kerry while Cheney is a liability for Bush. It's the first poll I've seen since Kerry selected Edwards that has detailed questions about Edwards and Cheney and a significant sample size.

Edwards's "favorability" rating among registered voters who know enough about him to have an opinion is a healthy 39 percent, while just 12 percent view him unfavorably. Cheney's favorable rating is 41 percent, but his unfavorable rating is up to 40 percent. Worse, Cheney's job approval rating is a dismal 41 percent, while 47 percent disapprove of the job he's doing. That, of course, is the number to watch when thinking about whether Cheney's experience is an asset or not. If voters think the job you are doing sucks, your experience is a liabilty.

Indeed, the poll confirms this with this stunning conclusion: Asked, "which vice presidential candidate do you think would make a better president," voters picked Edwards over Cheney 47 percent to 38 percent. So much for Cheney's decades of Beltway gigs being a good contrast with Edwards's single term in the Senate.

But surely voters think Edwards's background as a lawyer is a bad thing, right? Nope. Thirty-five percent say it would make them more favorable toward him, while 28 percent say it would make them less favorable. Fifty-five percent say his days as a lawyer demonstrates a "willingness to fight for the average person against big companies," while only 26 percent echo the Bush campaign line that "it contributed to the problem of frivolous lawsuits."

Oh yeah, the poll also reports that Bush can't break 44 percent among registered voters in either a two-way race with Kerry (Kerry: 47.5 percent; Bush: 43.3 percent) or a three-way race with Kerry and Nader (Kerry: 46.5 percent; Bush: 43.5 percent; Nader: 3.6 percent). This is still Kerry's race to lose.

posted 4:59 p.m.

Rasmussen Reports
Kerry-Edwards 49%
Bush-Cheney 45%

Saturday July 10, 2004--Senator Kerry now leads President Bush in the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll, 49% to 45%. Today's results reflect a five-point net gain for the Democrats since John Edwards was named as Kerry's running mate. In our last survey before the announcement, President Bush had a one-point edge, 47% to 46%.

Today is the first time since Kerry wrapped up the nomination that either candidate topped the 48% mark in our daily Tracking Poll. Prior to today, both candidates had stayed within three points of the 45% mark on every single night of polling for more than 120 days.

Yesterday, we released data showing Kerry leading by 5 points in Pennsylvania while Bush leads by four in Ohio. Our latest Electoral College projections show Kerry leading Bush 247-203.