@BrightNoon,
BrightNoon;61041 wrote:First, its not just an issue of governments being presented with bad science and, as laymen, evaluating it without enough rigor. As I understand it, there are two prominent theories/models/data sets which suggest global warming, the big kahuna in the environmental movement.
Environmentalists, eh. I am as concerned with saving the planet as the next guy. But some environmentalist extremists are anti-humanity self-haters. They have guilt over being better off, over being in the overconsuming, rich part of the world. But instead of punishing themselves they want to punish humanity.
BrightNoon;60781 wrote:Glad you think so, I'm trying to get my parents to watch it. There's always the possibility that some new and currently unimaginable technology will allow growth to continue, but even that has its problems. Unless something is invented which can power existing cars, homes, factories, etc. with the existing infrastructure, which is meant for fossil fuels (gas stations e.g.), there will have to be a significant period of time available to construct the new infrastructure. There is no such time if we are at 'peak everything' already. As Martenson explains, our economy depends not only on growth, but on massive exponential growth to sustain itself. I think we've reached the point where the obligations we've made are too great to be satisfied, i.e. that the future prosperity that we've effectively borrowed against cannot possibly be as great as we imagine it to be; even if it eventually is, there will be a period of decline during the transition to a new system. In other words, default on the debt with which we've built our modern society is inevitable, except that, rather than default, the government will inflate. The result is the same for the real economy. It's pretty obvious that, having reached the peak, or at least neared the peak of the inflationary system, we are not backing away slowly, but 'putting the pedal to the floor,' as Martenson says. I don't know, call me a pessimist, but I am starting to subscribe to the idea that the industrial revolution and industrial society (~1800-present) is a historical anomaly, and that humanity is destined to return to a simpler way of life, and a much lower population. This wasn't necessarily inevitable though. If we had had a free market and sound money, the massive depletion of resources over the last two centuries could have been invested productively, ensuring future prosperity. Instead, we took the easy route, installed an inflationary monetary system that allowed society to live above its means by borrowing against the future to fund the present, thereby causing an epic misallocation of resources (millions of excess homes, shopping malls, etc.), which ensures that the future prosperity won't be sufficient: a ponzi scheme that collapses in the end.
BrightNoon, please poke holes or correct me where I go wrong.
I finished watching all of the crash course. Holy cow, that stuff is scary. It's very interesting, but scary.
It seems the US are pretty much insolvent. It has a system that can cover over that until things completely fall apart and crash.
I looked it up. The US make over 6 Dollars in debt for every US citizen every day. As a comparison, Germanys debt is about 0.6 Cents per citizen per day. That seems unreal.
As far as I understood it, China produces worthless plastic toys, TV's and toasters. And the US buy them for worthless paper Dollars. And then China gives those worthless Dollars back to the US for soon worthless bonds. It's a bit like giving free heroin to your junky adversary. Did I get that right?
One of the things I learned from Thomas Friedman's
The world is flat, was that nations create assets because they had to. Like India had to become big with knowledge work, because India has few natural resources. So they had to rely on what they had - the brains of their citizens.
I think the US were in a situation where they
could print a bunch of money without it immediately inflating. So it did.
On what did the US spend all that money? Actually, I don't know. Certainly a high standard of living. And aircraft-carriers! The US spend as much on military as the rest of the world together. It is the world police. The US military is the reason that the rest of the western world doesn't have to have much of a military. And all that is funded by a pyramid scheme. What happens when the bubble bursts and the US can't maintain their military any more? I would say we go back to 'simpler ways'.
I have not much doubt that the US monetary bubble will burst. But the question is whether the rest of humanity will be dragged into it when that happens.
Let's hope
peak everything isn't reached too soon. And I think at that point in the course Martenson makes a few jumps to conclusions. For example, oil extraction might have flattened out lately because of lack of investment during the dot-com-bubble, when investments went where they had higher returns instead. And today we notice the effects of not maintaining the oil infrastructure, as it's falling apart and we get less out of it. Also we have been ramming more plugs into existing oil fields, shunning the investment of making new ones attainable. So the oil peak may still be ahead.
But you're right that we at least need oil long enough for a new technology to be out there and working. And I don't see that happening.
Let's hope that the worlds energy surplus doesn't go away too fast. All of our lives complexity can in some way be traced back to oil. From food to everyday products to security. We each have a thousand slaves in the form of oil. (In your face, Roman Empire.) What are we going to do when most of the slaves disappear? In that sense I can understand the global warming myth as a means of reducing overconsumption. And the necessity to indoctrinate us into believing it.
I like to ask you if you think world politicians know what they are doing. Or are world politicians stumbling around hoping for things not to crumble while they are in office? Do they have a correct understanding of what goes on and are the policies we notice part of a long-time strategy to get through this, (like the global warming story, it seems to be quite a elaborate and strategy, it requires a lot of organization), or is their goal merely to grab power and support special interests?
Having a bigger population would be an asset to any nations government to weather the upcoming storm. That they are advocating population reduction is partly why I think they are pursuing a different agenda than getting us out of this mess.
You might be right that post industrial revolution complexity of society is an anomaly. And that me will return to simpler ways.
I view a return to 'simpler ways' more like a medieval age. A return to a feudal society with a low standard of living and oppression.
So that's it? Humanity got to the moon. By then we burned all resources and return to 'simpler ways'. Our modern standard of living, progress, leisure, democracy, cars, health care. All that was just a symptom of the anomaly?
That the most aggressive species succeeded to become to dominant one has the inevitable consequence that the species will be aggressive and burn all of earths resources because it can. It's a conundrum.
High intensity warfare is expensive, it requires fighter-jets, tanks, aircraft-carriers, technology and resources. High intensity warfare is quick and precise.
Low intensity warfare is cheap. That means dragged out conflicts with simple weapons, as warfare is in Africa. It's mostly badly armed infantry. And low intensity wars are much more deadly and depriving.
I'm beginning to believe that the big post industrial wars revolution were something that was bound to happen around the peak of humanities energy surplus. And that these extreme discharges, including the world wars, were a symptom of the anomaly.
You know, this outlook is pretty scary. But being born in the aftermath of the peak is pretty cool. It's a bit like entering a bar at the moment when everybody decides to stand a round. I bet there was uncertainty in every age. We have thousands of slaves, and we're right around the moment in world history when the optimum is reached. I like living in interesting times.