@Shadow Dragon,
R.E. ShadowDragon:
You make a few interesting points here, I have been absent from this forum for a while so I will try to challenge them as best I can.
Quote:Without Germany initiating it, WW2 would still have happened, only the sides would be less clear. Italy would still have started the conquest that it attemtped during the early part of the war, which would put it in conflict with France and Britain.
You are definitely right about the possibility of a Second World War erupting in Hitler's absence. It may have occurred later, however, and under very different conditions. For it was Hitler's singular ambition that led to the war of 1939, a war that was very different in character to that of 1914-18; but there were other mavericks in Germany agitating for war at the same time, any of whom might have risen to prominence without Adolf's existence.
A few quick points: (I shall try to be concise.)
1) As I mentioned in a previous topic, the Treaty of Versailles made a Second World War likely - although not necessarily the war that happened. Its punitive terms gave the German people good reason to hate the Allied 'victors', reaffirmed their belief that they had not been defeated in the conventional sense (the political "stab in the back", as opposed to a straightforward military defeat), and weakened the German state to such an extent that a war of vengeance actually seemed desirable.
2) Also the Depression of the 1930s, which happened independently of Hitler's influence and was more or less concurrent with the rise of fascist and otherwise extremist regimes throughout Europe (excluding Mussolini's regime, which came into power before 1929), created an explosive powder-keg in Western Europe that was likely to erupt in some form or another.
I refer you to an earlier post of mine (it has to be at least six weeks old by now), concerning whether Hitler was "the driving force" of World War Two - a statement made by Eric Hobsbawm in
The Short Twentieth Century: The Age of Extremes (an excellent read if you want to buy it) - or merely the circumstantial architect of events.
3) Probably the sides would have been "less clear", as you put it - the alliance of Italy with Germany was a turn-out for the books, as it had allied itself with the Western Powers in the previous war - but I think the main lines would have been the same. Germany chafed under the imperial restraints of Britain and France, still the greatest imperial powers of the day, and to the east was threatened by the growing power of the Soviet Union, which was both a military threat (albeit seemingly diminished after its ignominious role in WWI) and an ideological one (being communist.) America's part in these events is less certain, despite being a natural ally of Britain, because of its fierce isolationism. In any case, no German leader, regardless of his intentions, would want to declare war on the United States: Hitler was wise not to do so until 1941 (and very
unwise to do so independently after Pearl Harbour.)
Quote:The Soviet Union, under Stalin, would have attempted to conquer the rest of Europe, starting with the easter European nations.
This statement assumes several things. Stalin did not have concrete designs on Europe, at least not in our 1930s timeline. Barring the ill-fated invasion of Finland, he made no attempt to expand the Soviet Union's influence beyond its borders, EXCEPT through the Comintern: all the Communist (and SD) parties in Europe were influenced by Moscow in some way, with varying degrees of success. Stalin did invade Poland in 1939, under the terms of the duplicitous Nazi-Soviet Pact, but as later events made clear that was due more to his need to protect the Soviet Union and build up a "buffer zone" against the West in the future. Stalin was no fool - he failed to anticipate the timing of Hitler's attack, in June 1941, but he knew that it was coming. Therefore, the conquest of East Poland was compelled by two overriding factors: the pressures exerted by a militant and expansive Germany (under the influence of Hitler, a man with a well-known prejudice against the
"untermenschen" Slavs of the East); and the ideological threat posed by a capitalist and suspicious West.
The latter pressure had nothing to do with Hitler - as early as the 1920s Stalin had declared that the Soviet Union must "become strong" or face total destruction at the hands of the West: "we are lost." In this he was eerily prophetic. However, Stalin did not know then who the enemy would be, or what form this conflict would take. "The West" encompassed all of Europe, which was by-and-large capitalist, and Britain, France and possibly the United States (excluding for a moment the issue of its isolationism) were the most likely contenders. Germany, after Poland, was the Soviet Union's closest neighbour, with a demonstrable hunger for blood and conquest; but Germany in the 1920s was weak and disarmed, and although it might regain its strength in a decade or less, Stalin probably gave less thought to it. Yet, even in 1940, as the threat of Nazi Germany loomed large, France fell and Britain teetered on the brink of collapse, Stalin felt that Britain and Germany might reach an agreement and seek to destroy him together - and why shouldn't they, given their ideological hatred of communism?
The former pressure - that exerted by Germany, and by Hitler's designs on Europe - is another matter, and raises indeed the issue of whether or not Stalin would have started to expand his territorial boundaries,
without the presence of Hitler. This could become a topic in itself!
Quote:Now, a couple of things could have happened in Europe at this point. One, Italy, France and Britian could have put their conflict aside to deal with the Soviets, or the Soviet Union could have allied with Italy to conquer the rest of western Europe.
Exactly the argument I mentioned before, although I wonder why the Soviet Union would ally with Italy, of all countries, to conquer western Europe? Germany, given its grievance towards the Allied powers, would surely make a more natural bed-partner? And in fact, in real life, Germany and the Soviet Union
did make a pact, even if it was only an alliance of convenience, and short-lived at that. And although Germany was a "capitalist" nation in the 1920s and 30s, like Britain, America and France, it actually had by the time of Hitler's arrival one of the largest and most powerful Communist parties in the world - as I mentioned in a previous thread, had the Nazis
not come to power, the German Communist Party might actually have gained a sizable majority in the Reichstag and bowed to Soviet pressure. In which case, if Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe followed suit (I know Hungary and Czechoslovakia had powerful communist parties, and Stalin had made attempts in the past to bring them into the fold), history would have seen a pseudo-"Cold War" in the heartland of Europe, centred on Germany, WITHOUT the existence of atomic weapons, and thus potentially more devastating than the real-life Second World War and the Cold War that developed in the late 1940s and 50s.
Whew... food for thought there! Feel free to tell me what you think!