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Is Greece going to set off the long feared next wave of the Great Recession?

 
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Jul, 2015 11:37 pm
@hawkeye10,
I think we should take another look at what happened to Germany post WW1 when unfair and impossible to meet terms were imposed upon them with little/no choice. With so much of this handling of Greece it seems like the Germans have turned off their brains
Lordyaswas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 7 Jul, 2015 01:04 am
@ehBeth,
ehBeth wrote:

Listening to news summary and debate from Europe right now. Not a lot of support for further funds going to Greek.

Lots of discussion of how Kohl forced Germany into the Euro against the wishes of most Germans. He felt Germany owed it to Europe to aid in regaining postwar stability. Interesting debate.


Kohl is also about the only big time German politician to have actually voiced an opinion regarding Germany's war reparation and debt repayment to Greece and other countries.
According to the author of the following article, it was and still is policy for all concerned NOT to enter into discussions or voice an opinion, for fear of setting any precedent for future claims.

NOVEMBER 2014 INTERVIEW.

In this interview, Albrecht Ritschl, professor of economic history at the London School of Economics, discusses Germany's unpaid war debts and reparations to Greece from World War II, and characterizes Germany as the biggest debt transgressor of the 20th century.

Relevant snippet : -

".......Which leads us to the question of why the awareness in Germany of these issues isn't greater. And there is one thing that gives an indication of that. It's clear that official Berlin has no intention to talk about these issues very much, because lawyers are always worried about creating legal precedent for any claim, so official Berlin remains mum on these issues. The one who did say something, and it was quite revealing, was former German chancellor Helmut Kohl, who at the time of the negotiations once walked out to a press conference and when he was asked about these issues, he said: "look, we claim that we cannot pay reparations, because if we open this Pandora's box, then given the viciousness and brutality of Nazi warfare, the genocides - there were several genocides that the Nazis carried out - given these absolutely horrific facts and the unbelievable scale of these horrific crimes, any attempt to quantify this and translate it into claims against Germany will either come up with ridiculously low compensation or it is basically going to eat up all of Germany's national wealth." And this has consistently been Germany's standpoint ever since: that the damage done by Nazi Germany, not just in terms of morality and human suffering, but simply in terms of creating material and financial damage, is so huge that it will simply supersede Germany's capacity to pay."


Full, fascinating interview......

http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/27261-germany-s-unpaid-debt-to-greece-albrecht-ritschl-on-germany-s-war-debts-and-reparations
Lordyaswas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 7 Jul, 2015 01:15 am
And from Spiegel Online in 2011....

"SPIEGEL ONLINE: Mr. Ritschl, Germany is coming across like a know-it-all in the debate over aid for Greece. Berlin is intransigent and is demanding obedience from Athens. Is this attitude justified?

Ritschl: No, there is no basis for it.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Most Germans would likely disagree.

Ritschl: That may be, but during the 20th century, Germany was responsible for what were the biggest national bankruptcies in recent history. It is only thanks to the United States, which sacrificed vast amounts of money after both World War I and World War II, that Germany is financially stable today and holds the status of Europe's headmaster. That fact, unfortunately, often seems to be forgotten."


More.....
http://m.spiegel.de/international/germany/a-769703.html#spRedirectedFrom=www&referrrer=https://www.google.co.uk/
Brandon9000
 
  3  
Reply Tue 7 Jul, 2015 03:59 am
@hawkeye10,
hawkeye10 wrote:
I think we should take another look at what happened to Germany post WW1 when unfair and impossible to meet terms were imposed upon them with little/no choice. With so much of this handling of Greece it seems like the Germans have turned off their brains

No one is "imposing" anything on Greece. The EU is saying, "if you want us to give you even more money, you will have to show that you are reforming." If the Greeks don't like the terms of the loan, they are perfectly free to make their own way in the world.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 7 Jul, 2015 07:30 am
@ehBeth,
ehBeth wrote:

Listening to news summary and debate from Europe right now. Not a lot of support for further funds going to Greek.

Lots of discussion of how Kohl forced Germany into the Euro against the wishes of most Germans. He felt Germany owed it to Europe to aid in regaining postwar stability. Interesting debate.


That's an interesting twist when set against other very contrasting views expressed here regarding Germany's 'war debt' and the post WWII infusion of funds required to restart European economies. Incompatible views, but there are importsant elements of truth in both of them. I think that tells us something about the march of events in human affairs. Good intentions don't always yield good results, and the complexity of unfolding events often yields surprises that confound our plans and purposes.

It also reminds us that, in various ways, the actors in unfolding historical events have usually been on both sides of most issues.
0 Replies
 
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Tue 7 Jul, 2015 07:45 am
@Lordyaswas,
Thanks for the link/snippet
0 Replies
 
CalamityJane
 
  2  
Reply Tue 7 Jul, 2015 09:03 am
@ehBeth,
ehBeth wrote:

Listening to news summary and debate from Europe right now. Not a lot of support for further funds going to Greek.

Lots of discussion of how Kohl forced Germany into the Euro against the wishes of most Germans. He felt Germany owed it to Europe to aid in regaining postwar stability. Interesting debate.


It is interesting, yet there is no way of changing history. After WWII,
Germany received great help from the US via its Marshall Plan and it helped Germany to rebuild its infrastructure and financial stability. Pay it forward, as it is called today, I feel Germany needs to help weaker nations within the EU to regain their stability.

Lending money alone has not been fruitful to Greece as corruption at government levels is far greater than we anticipated, what's needed is a sort of Marshall Plan to encourage investments in Greece, promote industry and stabilize the work force. That's where the EU should put emphasis in, helping Greece to gain economic freedom and stabilize its economy.

Someone said the other day: We can't change the fact that Greece is in
Europe and part of Europe and we have no choice but help.
georgeob1
 
  2  
Reply Tue 7 Jul, 2015 09:17 am
@CalamityJane,
CalamityJane wrote:

Lending money alone has not been fruitful to Greece as corruption at government levels is far greater than we anticipated, what's needed is a sort of Marshall Plan to encourage investments in Greece, promote industry and stabilize the work force. That's where the EU should put emphasis in, helping Greece to gain economic freedom and stabilize its economy.


I agree completely. The recipients of Marshal Plan aid were at the same time enduring mass relocations of people and other privations and very strongly motivated to rebuild their lives, economy and independence. The missing element in Greece appears to be the motivation of the people to themsdelves do something with the help they have been given. Nothing from the outside can replace that.
CalamityJane
 
  1  
Reply Tue 7 Jul, 2015 09:18 am
@Lordyaswas,
Lordyaswas wrote:
Ritschl: That may be, but during the 20th century, Germany was responsible for what were the biggest national bankruptcies in recent history. It is only thanks to the United States, which sacrificed vast amounts of money after both World War I and World War II, that Germany is financially stable today and holds the status of Europe's headmaster. That fact, unfortunately, often seems to be forgotten.


Yes, I agree!
0 Replies
 
wanyee
 
  2  
Reply Tue 7 Jul, 2015 09:21 am
@hawkeye10,
Whatever is happening in Greece is really fishy and the bail out by IMF just made the reluctant to fix their problems and every government will do just that, hide the problems internally.
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Tue 7 Jul, 2015 09:21 am
@CalamityJane,
CalamityJane wrote:

ehBeth wrote:

Listening to news summary and debate from Europe right now. Not a lot of support for further funds going to Greek.

Lots of discussion of how Kohl forced Germany into the Euro against the wishes of most Germans. He felt Germany owed it to Europe to aid in regaining postwar stability. Interesting debate.


It is interesting, yet there is no way of changing history.


they weren't talking about changing history. they were talking about why people were resistant to helping Greece and why there's absolute fury about it now in some circles. more about the effect of history on what's happening/not happening now.
0 Replies
 
CalamityJane
 
  1  
Reply Tue 7 Jul, 2015 09:22 am
@georgeob1,
George, the Greek are usually a happy, optimistic nation. Being screwed (pardon my French) over by its government and having to endure the austerity plan of the EU, has ground them down. Yes, they're demotivated, but this
would change tremendously if the people itself had a new outlook in life and in their financial welfare.

I am glad we can agree on something! Smile
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 7 Jul, 2015 09:39 am
@CalamityJane,
Greece has a decades long history of electing populist governments that traded public debt for political power, and that became part of the social fabric of the nation. Greek optimism doesn't appear to include any element of self reliance and determination to do something to better their situation. Instead they look for outsiders to blame and to provide solutions to problems they created.

I've spent a lot of time there too. I would describe them as emotional and exhuberant instead of happy. Also, as we used to say, "ppo" , or perpetually pissed off (and indignant).

I don't see how any outside aid from the EU could benefit them if they don't take some responsibility themselves.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 7 Jul, 2015 01:07 pm
This today from the AP;
Quote:
BRUSSELS (AP) -- Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras strode into a summit of eurozone leaders with a beaming smile Tuesday, but was met with anger when it became clear he had no written proposal on how to save his country from financial ruin.

With Greece's banks just days away from a potential collapse that could drag the country out of the euro, Tsipras had been expected to offer up economic reforms in exchange for loans. Instead, his government said it would only present a plan on Wednesday.

"You know, there was a promise for today. Then, they're promising for tomorrow," said Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite. "For the Greek government it's every time 'manana.'"

Tsipras came buoyed by a triumph in Sunday's referendum, where an overwhelming majority of Greeks backed his call to reject the reforms that creditors had last proposed.

But that domestic victory did not appear to give him much leverage in talks with foreign creditors, who know Tsipras needs a deal soon to keep his country afloat. Banks have been shut for seven working days and will not reopen before Thursday, cash withdrawals have been limited for just as long, and daily business throughout the country has come to a near standstill.

So it was with some surprise that European leaders learned Tsipras did not yet have a written proposal for new rescue aid.

"I'm extremely somber about this summit. I'm also somber about the question of whether Greece really wants to come up with proposals, with a solution," Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said.

Greece's 18 eurozone partners have steadfastly said they want to help Greece stay in the currency club but have just as often complained about Greece dragging its feet during months of negotiations.

Even German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned Tsipras he was dancing close to the financial abyss.

"We are no longer talking about weeks but very few days," she said.

An official from a eurozone nation said that Greece's failure to bring clear proposals to an earlier meeting of finance ministers caused widespread frustration. Greek Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos instead made a presentation and discussed key issues.


It appears the game of chicken may be continuing. Perhaps each side assumes the next move should be from the other.
CalamityJane
 
  3  
Reply Tue 7 Jul, 2015 01:45 pm
@georgeob1,
Look what the Guardian says tonight..

Quote:
Evening summary: Greece's future in the balance

I think a recap might be helpful.

Eurozone leaders are locked in an emergency summit tonight that will, most likely, determine Greece’s future in the eurozone.

Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, has laid out Athens’ plans for a new aid programme.

There are reports that Greece going to ask for a short-term funding deal, to cover its immediate needs, and then a longer package.

Sources have told the Guardian that Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, wants a decision tonight on whether a third bailout package is viable. That will determine whether talks resume with Greece, or whether the eurozone starts planning to lose a member.

The states tonight are desperately high, as leaders talk over their vichyssoise soup, cod fillet, and chocolate mousse.


hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Tue 7 Jul, 2015 03:23 pm
Quote:
Longer term, the eurocrats believe that a Grexit will cause Greece to collapse — some eurocrats were even talking about extending "humanitarian assistance" if the country leaves — and that this might be a good thing after all, since it would push everyone else to toe the line. Many Germans want to crush Greece pour encourager les autres. On top of being highly questionable morally, it is, to put it mildly, not sensible

http://theweek.com/articles/564888/european-elites-are-already-plotting-greeces-comeuppance-theyre-big-surprise?ref=yfp

Which is why I say that if this comes to pass then Europe is cooked.....it is over.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  2  
Reply Tue 7 Jul, 2015 05:28 pm
@CalamityJane,
Putting the last two reports together it appears that
(1)the EU has made a specific proposal which the Greek government tacitly rejected and then put it to a public vote with a recommendation for rejection.
(2) The EU then withdrew their proposal
(3) The Greek referendum confirmed public rejection of the already withdrawn EU offer.
(4) Greek PM Tsipras met with the EU without a specific counterproposal, but with an outline of interim measures to stabilize the situation and an outline for future discussions

This suggests to me that Tsipras continues to presume he can set and modify the agenda at his will. This is a continuation of the bold strategy that has got them in the current mess. In short he's still playing chicken. I suspect his EU creditors will instead look for relatively harmless ways of appearing to conciliate and confer, all while consuming time as the situation in Greece unravels and they wait for a new government.
0 Replies
 
roger
 
  1  
Reply Tue 7 Jul, 2015 05:40 pm
@CalamityJane,
CalamityJane wrote:

Lending money alone has not been fruitful to Greece as corruption at government levels is far greater than we anticipated, what's needed is a sort of Marshall Plan to encourage investments in Greece, promote industry and stabilize the work force. That's where the EU should put emphasis in, helping Greece to gain economic freedom and stabilize its economy.


Un huh. Government corruption and tax rates (if paid) are hardly an inducement to investment. I seem to recall that Greece is one of the more difficult countries in which to do business.
0 Replies
 
glitterbag
 
  1  
Reply Tue 7 Jul, 2015 07:57 pm
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:

I believe Greece is a basket case, and no amount of bailouts will save their economy. Germany alone can't save the Euro. It seems more bailouts to Greece will only exacerbate the Euro's inflation.


How have you been? I hope you're feeling better.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Tue 7 Jul, 2015 11:05 pm
Five leading economists warn the German chancellor, "History will remember you for your actions this week."
Austerity Has Failed: An Open Letter From Thomas Piketty to Angela Merkel
 

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