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Is Greece going to set off the long feared next wave of the Great Recession?

 
 
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Sun 5 Jul, 2015 07:21 pm
@Brandon9000,
Quote:
The EU is under no obligation whatever to give their money to Greece

Washington was not under any obligation to bail out New York either, either time we did it, but did out of self interest.
Brandon9000
 
  4  
Reply Sun 5 Jul, 2015 08:24 pm
@hawkeye10,
hawkeye10 wrote:
Quote:
The EU is under no obligation whatever to give their money to Greece

Washington was not under any obligation to bail out New York either, either time we did it, but did out of self interest.

It would be foolish to throw good money after bad at people who have already defaulted on the last loan and respond to requests for reform with childish theatrics.
hawkeye10
 
  -2  
Reply Sun 5 Jul, 2015 11:01 pm
@Brandon9000,
Quote:
In all the political blame game of this week, one fact has been mostly overlooked: Seldom have macroeconomic difficulties been as persistently mismanaged as those of Greece over the past five years. Since the beginning of the crisis, Greece has performed markedly worse than the most of the hardest-hit crisis countries in the past half century - worse than Ukraine over the past decade (when it was confronted with all the well-known security issues in Eastern Ukraine and the occupation of Crimea by the Russians), worse than the economic-policy-pariah Argentina after its default in 2002 and worse than Burundi during its decade-long civil war in the 1990s and early 2000s.
Clearly, this dismal performance cannot be primarily blamed on institutional problems in Greece: Greek institutions might be weak, and corruption wide-spread, but would anyone seriously claim that institutional conditions in Athens are worse than those in Argentina in the 1990s or those in Burundi when Hutus and Tutsi killed each other by the thousands?
The mistakes in the Greek bailout programs are by now well documented: For a long time, the troika postponed a necessary debt restructuring. When the debt restructuring came, the troika did not allow public creditors to be included, so the Greek debt level remained unsustainable. The troika also badly underestimated the detrimental impact of austerity on Greek output. And it focused on labor market reforms when the real problem were vested interests and monopolies in product markets, cutting into Greek wages without really improving competitiveness and exports.
All this contributed to a continuous decline in GDP and a dramatic increase in unemployment.

http://www.dw.com/en/a-mismanaged-bailout-is-worse-than-a-grexit/a-18551381

And now the EU/IMF pay the fine for their malpractice. They make Greece a special ward of the EU, a very special case. That is the only way this works. If tomorrow the Germans and their suit only French used to be partners announce anything else then the ideals of Europe are dead. Completely.

These ******* Germans hammer on the Greeks because they did not do what they were supposed to do, and here they refuse to do what they are supposed to do....which is care about justice, which is the betterment of all, which is supposed to be cooperative effort.

Why the **** Europeans dont single out these arrogant unjust Germans IDK. Oh right, I DO! Because the Germans pay for everything!

God Damn, the idea of Europe sure took a wrong turn,
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 5 Jul, 2015 11:50 pm
Wondering, how/if Greece will get a new finance minister within hours ...
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Jul, 2015 12:02 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Walter Hinteler wrote:

Wondering, how/if Greece will get a new finance minister within hours ...


Maybe Krugman volunteered. This would be the perfect time to insert someone like him into the situation. And the Greek socialists would do it, not only because it would be right, but also because they have nothing to lose and everything to gain by playing long ball. Which this current greek government understands even as almost no one else does. Europe has become all about "proper" behavior. But how does it usually go when the disruptive child is denied candy, is told to behave or else? Is beaten when they dont?? Is sent to the dark scary room when the beating does not work???

And I used to believe in Europe. I feel I think even more let down by Europe than I have been by the liberals.

BTW: if the first paragraph seem strange it is because you did not figure out that I was illustrating how the two parties are talking past each other. Their empathy chips are missing.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Jul, 2015 12:31 am
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
This does two things: it legitimizes the stance of the Greek government and it leaves the ball in Europe's court," ANZ Bank analysts said in a note. "Europe either folds or Greece goes bankrupt; over to you Merkel."

No, a third way is for germany to remove Greece from europe with a send off of some more aid to give them a fighting chance. The aid could be in the form of providing experts to help them run a currency, at least for ten years or so.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Jul, 2015 01:15 am
@hawkeye10,
Seriously though, now is the time for good cop from the Greeks. If they do it right they will embarrass the EU as vindictive little shits. It will be an EU insider, and yes, this was almost certainly planned months ago.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  3  
Reply Mon 6 Jul, 2015 08:33 am
@Walter Hinteler,
I think there is a great deal to wonder about right now. It seems very unlikely that Germany and the EU will simply yield to the prermptory demands coming from Syriz in Greece. Oddly it appears, from his repeated statements, that Greece's Financial Minister, Varofakis believes he will see a new offer from them without delay. I have seen no indication that the Greek government has any new proposal to offer its creditors.

What will be the effects in Greece of an impasse on these matters? The banks will run out of liquidity in the next couple of days and the money economy will simply stop. Varofarkis has no intention of issuing a new currency and has even affirmed they have no physical ability to print one - 'they destroyed the presses when they joined the Eurozone' he says. (He is a very odd duck who appears to have a real appetite for confrontation and bluffing.)

The apparent exultation of the Greek people following the election could very well transform itself into despair and disorder very quickly as they discover their charismatic leaders have no plan and are simply posturing for the crowd.

There's an old saw about the ultimate tactic in a game of chicken, "Throw your steering wheel out of the window in full view of the oncoming driver". That may well be Varofakis' concept of game theory.

We'll all know soon.
timur
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Jul, 2015 08:56 am
@georgeob1,
So, after all your postures, you don't have any better hypothesis than the servum pecus, as Horace said..
georgeob1
 
  3  
Reply Mon 6 Jul, 2015 09:29 am
@timur,
No posturing at all. Merely expressing my opinions of an unfolding drama,. It's true I now find the behavior of the Syriza party otherwise inexplicable, and have no better explanation than an appeal to the slavish herd.

Glad to learn you've read the odes. Anything else you wish to tell me?
timur
 
  0  
Reply Mon 6 Jul, 2015 09:33 am
@georgeob1,
Isn't it enough to make you admit that you are as clueless as anybody else?
georgeob1
 
  3  
Reply Mon 6 Jul, 2015 10:15 am
@timur,
I had acknowledged my perplexity over the Syriza plan well before your post. What is your point?
Foofie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Jul, 2015 10:49 am
@CalamityJane,
CalamityJane wrote:

So far it's 60.3 % for NO and 39.7 % a YES vote, lt "Spiegel". So far, only 20 % of votes were counted.
The Greek are celebrating today, tomorrow they'll have a huge hangover.
I don't think that the common citizen understands the implication of a NO outcome.


The "common citizen" might very well "understand the implication of a NO outcome"; however, many observers might not understand the psychology of "spite work." Meaning, some folks are willing to bite their nose, to spite their face. I am not saying that that is the motivation for a NO vote; however, it has not been mentioned as a possible motivation for voting NO.

Certain cultures do understand "spiteful behaviors," more than others. For example, Italians understand on a visceral level the word "vendetta" (it is an Italian word), while those from other cultures might understand the meaning of the word, but do not feel the visceral meaning of the word.

When some children do not listen to parental authority, it could be "for spite." Psychologically, Greece could be acting to the EU like a recalcitrant child?
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Jul, 2015 10:55 am
@Foofie,
Quote:
Meaning, some folks are willing to bite their nose, to spite their face. I am not saying that that is the motivation for a NO vote; however, it has not been mentioned as a possible motivation for voting NO.

more likely they thought they were calling the EU BOSSES bluff of throwing Greece out of the EU. Now the Greece government will be very nice, and plead for a deal. One that the people of greece can accept. Morally the EU bosses can not now cut and run, leaving Greece to rot. Everyone knows that. At the very least the EU needs to grease the skids of a Greece EU exit by providing money and and expertise. If the EU lets Greece rot then the Chinese would for sure come in and help greece, and they will tell the West "You never get to give us a morality lecture ever again".

Quote:
When some children do not listen to parental authority, it could be "for spite." Psychologically, Greece could be acting to the EU like a recalcitrant child?
And what do we think of parents who beat and neglect their children in these situations?

Do you get the picture yet?
cicerone imposter
 
  5  
Reply Mon 6 Jul, 2015 10:59 am
@georgeob1,
I believe Greece is a basket case, and no amount of bailouts will save their economy. Germany alone can't save the Euro. It seems more bailouts to Greece will only exacerbate the Euro's inflation.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Jul, 2015 11:02 am
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:

I believe Greece is a basket case, and no amount of bailouts will save their economy. Germany alone can't save the Euro. It seems more bailouts to Greece will only exacerbate the Euro's inflation.

Prob it is what I said about 5 years ago, Greece cant get better till they get out of the Euro. And the EU needs to make sure this happens, in the right way.
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Jul, 2015 11:06 am
@cicerone imposter,
Tak! belated happy birthday
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Jul, 2015 11:14 am
@ehBeth,
... and welcome back to A2K, long awaited ....
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  3  
Reply Mon 6 Jul, 2015 11:28 am
@cicerone imposter,
Hello Cicerone ! Great to hear from you. I wish you well.

I agree with you here. Greece's problems are chronic, and without some structural reforms their economic future isn't bright. I have long suspected that, had they shown more willingness to do this, or even persist with the earlier reforms, which had already yielded a primary budget surplus and some real GDP growth, the Europeans would have agreed to either a reduction in the principal value of their debts or an extension of the repayment period. However without the reforms on the part of the Greek government no solution appears possible and therefore no concessiuons on the parts of the EU would benefit anyone.

During the earlier negotiations a good deal of the Greek debt was transferred away from various national banks to the ECB and Germany. I assume this was motivated by the desire to put the risk of default in hands that could endure it - a prudent measure.

I have found it difficult to understand just what might have been the calculations of Tsipras & Varofakis in all this.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Jul, 2015 11:43 am
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:
I have found it difficult to understand just what might have been the calculations of Tsipras & Varofakis in all this.
They (= the actual government) is backed by at least two-third of the population. And all democratic parties (= beside the communists and extreme-right) in the parliament.

And since the finance minsters of the euro-countries couldn't find a solution to deal with in the last five months, I wonder, if suddenly a miracle will happen tomorrow.
0 Replies
 
 

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