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Russia to price oil exports in euro's.

 
 
Brand X
 
Reply Tue 14 Oct, 2003 06:32 pm
Russia to price oil in euros in snub to US
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Brussels (Filed: 10/10/2003)

Russia is to start pricing its huge oil and gas exports in euros instead of dollars as part of a stragetic shift to forge closer ties with the European Union.

The Russian central bank has been amassing euros since early 2002, increasing the euro share of its $65 billion (£40 billion) foreign reserves from 10pc to more than 25pc, according to the finance ministry.

The move has set off a chain reaction in the private sector, leading to a fourfold increase in euro deposits in Russian banks this year and sending Russian citizens scrambling to change their stashes of greenbacks into euro notes.

German officials said Chancellor Gerhard Schroder secured agreement for the change-over on oil pricing from Vladimir Putin, the prime minister, while on a trip to Russia this week.

The two leaders have forged a close personal bond and are both keen to check American economic and diplomatic power.

Mr Putin was coy about German media reports on the deal yesterday but acknowledged that Russia was exploring the idea. "We do not rule out that it is possible. That would be interesting for our European partners," he said.

A switch to euro invoicing would not affect the long-term price of oil but it could encourage Middle Eastern exporters to follow suit and have a powerful effect on market psychology at a time when the dollar is already under intense pressure. Russia boasts the world's biggest natural gas reserves and is the number two oil exporter after Saudi Arabia.

Yesterday the dollar recovered slightly against the yen and euro, but the IMF and the European Central Bank both warn that America's ballooning current account deficit, now over 5pc of GDP, will lead to further declines.

Oil is seen as so central to the global power structure that the choice of currency used for pricing has acquired almost totemic significance. The switch from pounds to dollars after the Second World War has come to symbolise sterling's demise as a world reserve currency.

If the dollar were ever displaced by the euro, it would lose the enormous freedom it now enjoys in running macro-economic policy. Washington would also forfeit the privilege of exchanging dollar notes for imports, worth an estimated 0.5pc of GDP.

Maxim Shein, from BrokerKreditService in Moscow, said the switch to euros makes sense for Russia since it supplies half of Europe's energy needs. But the move is also part of a global realignment stemming from the Iraq war, which threw Russia, Germany and France together into a new Triple Entente.

"Abandoning the dollar is tantamount to a curtsey to the EU," he said. For now, IMF figures show the dollar remains king, accounting for 68pc of foreign reserves worldwide compared with 13pc for the euro.
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Type: Discussion • Score: 0 • Views: 763 • Replies: 7
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roger
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Oct, 2003 06:46 pm
A major attack on the dollar.
0 Replies
 
Brand X
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Oct, 2003 07:48 pm
Apparently the implications could be severe as it strenghtens the euro and the european trading bloc. America has enjoyed trading with a strong dollar for many years and the euro by gaining stength will threaten that advantage. It is about the currency used to trade oil and consequently, who will dominate the world economically, in the foreseeable future -- the USA or the European Union.

The war in Iraq is actually the US and Europe going head to head on economic leadership of the world? America had a monopoly on the oil trade, with the US dollar being the fiat currency, but Iraq broke ranks in 1999, started to trade oil in the EU's euros, and profited. America's control in Iraq could hurl the EU and its euro back into the sea and make America's position as the dominant economic power in the world all but impregnable.

This debate is not about whether America would suffer from losing the US dollar monopoly on oil trading, that is a given, rather it is about exactly how hard the USA would be hit.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Oct, 2003 08:02 pm
If you're talking about eocnomic power, the US is still number one. It has to do with Gross National Product, the value of all the goods and services produced in a country. The EU countries is nowheres near overtaking the US in economic power. Heck, California is the fifth or sixth largest economy in the world today, and Japan is still number two, although China is catching up rather quickly.
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Brand X
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Oct, 2003 08:10 pm
The outcome is unknown, we've seen the dollar weaken recently, it has regained some. It remains to be seen who else will follow, like Iran and other oil producers.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Oct, 2003 08:16 pm
I see the weakening of the US dollar as a good thing for the time being. It makes our products and services cheaper in the world markets compared to the Euro. Both Germany and France are having economic problems of their own. Their inability to compete with US products in the world market is going to hurt them further. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate in the world market. OPEC has to be careful not to overprice oil, because a depressed world economy hits them in their pockets too.
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Brand X
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Oct, 2003 08:21 pm
Here's an article that 'splains it a little more.

When will we buy oil in euros?

When it comes to the global oil trade, the dollar reigns supreme. But it has a challenger, writes Faisal Islam

Sunday February 23, 2003
The Observer

Whether the price of oil is surging to new highs, as it is today, or slumping, as is predicted after a war in Iraq, there is one enduring constant: the dollar sign.

Oil trading, whether from Norway to the Netherlands, Britain to Bermuda, or Bahrain to Bangladesh, operates through the US greenback.

The oil-dollar nexus is one of the foundations of the world economy that inevitably filters through to geopolitics. Recycling so-called petrodollars, the proceeds of these high oil prices, has helped the United States run its colossal trade deficits. But the past year has seen the quiet emergence of the 'petroeuro'.

Effectively, the normal standards of economics have not applied to the US, because of the international role of the dollar. Some $3 trillion (£1,880 billion) are in circulation around the world helping the US to run virtually permanent trade deficits. Two-thirds of world trade is dollar-denominated. Two-thirds of central banks' official foreign exchange reserves are also dollar-denominated.

Full story
0 Replies
 
wolf
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Oct, 2003 08:47 pm
I sincerely doubt whether Russia will really abandon the dollar as oil currency. I see it more as a typical strategic chess move to keep the US from too much interfering in Putin's hemisphere. The CIA is having a field trip in Tchechnya since a few years and Putin is fighting back with all he's got.
0 Replies
 
 

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