What If, Alternate Political History

It did not make as much difference as that, to the political landscape. The public was ready to embrace a more conservative agenda. Look how popular was Nixon in his first term. Kennedy still might not have won the election. He did not have John's charisma.

you may be right, edgar. from what i understand, the baby born again movement worked really hard for carter and got him elected.

it was his reluctance to govern as a born again that led them to get behind dutch.

I'm not sure Chappaquidick lost him the primary to Carter - although it should have lost him his political career.

Carter was, afterall, the sitting president and knocking off one of them is not an easy task if for no other reason than they own the party machine. As soon as a president is elected all the key political postitions go to loyal supporters.

Depending on your age, you may recall Teddy's incoherent answer to Roger Mudd's question: "Why do you want to be president?"

What should have been a softball was high hard cheese for Kennedy. Much was made about how this one question (and his rambling answer) sunk his primary hopes.

As already indicated, there really isn't a reason to believe that the American voters would have chosen Kennedy over Reagan. I don't think Teddy would have prevented the Reagan Democrats from bolting.

Certainly it would have made a big difference in Kennedy's life (and an even bigger one in Mary Jo Kopeckne's), but I think to suggest that in its absence he would have beat Carter and then Reagan is to ignore or greatly underestimate a lot of other political factors of the time.

Nesting conditionals that depend on each other makes things less probable than most people realize. Even if you give each scenario generous odds (let's use 80%) and disregard anything else that can happen to derail the conclusion you get a low probability of your concluded outcome.

Let's say that change gives Ted a 80% chance at beating Carter (and I agree with Finn in that it's likely not over 50%), which then gives him a 80% chance of becoming President, which then gives him a 80% chance of being re-elected, which then gives us a 80% chance of not seeing Reagan which gives us a 80% chance of the Bush's not being elected.

Do the math and you are at about a 33% likelihood of that conclusion.

Your calculus is, admittedly, generous, so how likely is a seachange in American history if Teddy didn't kill Mary Jo Kopeckne?

Not at all.