@snood,
Snood, I am much more optimistic than you are.
We have the leverage to push through a good public option- if Obama takes the lead. I will be very surprised if we see a bill with "triggers" will pass either house of Congress (since it is clear that triggers will never kick in and will basically kill the bill).
The rules are that the weaker party compromises with the stronger party.
The public option has strong public support (polls back this up). The Democrats have the White House and a strong position in the Congress. The Republicans have been acting like they are in a position of strength (and some Democrats have been acting like they are in a position of weakness).
The Democrats (i.e. Obama) need to push forward a good bill with a public option and other things that a majority of Americans want.
Then you need to get the weak-kneed Democratic Senators on board. It is clear that the House Democrats are standing firm (they won't vote for a bill without a public option)... so that puts the required pressure on the "centrist" Democrats who have key votes.
But... look at it this way. The liberal Democrats (from liberal states) aren't going to be voted out for their support for health insurance reform. If the so-called "Republican wave" is really coming, it is the centrist Democrats who will be losing their seats.
So ironically, the Democratic Centrists Senators have the most to lose if the Democrats don't get a health car bill passed. When Obama and the House make it clear what their choice is good bill with public option or nothing, they will be pressured (by their own desire to get reelected) to vote for it.
Of course, public support is crucial through this. But then, Obama has the world's biggest bully pulpit.