Texas Dems walked out again, anger over GOP internal memo

© 2003 The Washington Post Company

THE TEXAS HOUSE passed the measure during the day, and the state Senate was poised to do the same last night. Republicans control both bodies. According to both Democrats and Republicans, the plan, if it survives a legal challenge by the Democrats, could give the GOP a gain of seven or more congressional seats, virtually assuring the party's continued control of the House at least through this decade.

The analysis of the plan, written by the legislative counsel to U.S. Rep. Joe Barton (R-Tex.), provides a rare public glimpse into the inner workings of the congressional redistricting process, which both political parties use to advance their own cause and hurt the opposition.

In the case of the Texas GOP plan, the analysis described how steps were taken to try to protect the plan from legal challenge under the Voting Rights Act of 1965, but also how minority voters would be shifted into Republican-dominated suburban districts and how a new district in West Texas was crafted to meet the aspirations of a friend of President Bush.

"This is the most aggressive map I have ever seen," Joby Fortson wrote in the analysis, which he e-mailed to congressional aides. "This has a real national impact that should assure that Republicans keep the House no matter the national mood."

Fortson predicted that Texas Republicans would pick up six to seven new House seats in next year's congressional elections if the plan withstands the expected legal challenge by Democrats. His analysis tracks closely with an analysis by the staff of U.S. Rep. Martin Frost (D-Tex.), which said the new district lines would endanger the reelection chances of at least seven Democratic incumbents.

It is not known whether Fortson played any role in drafting the redistricting plan, but his views about its probable impact closely parallel those of Democratic and independent political analysts.

Referring to new districts that would stretch from around the state capital of Austin to the border with Mexico, Fortson said they were "part of the voting rights protection element" in the plan. The districts are designed to be dominated by minority voters even as Republicans would make gains elsewhere.

Fortson appeared to take special delight in writing about what he predicted would be the fate of two Texas Democrats, Frost and Rep. Lloyd Doggett. "Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha ...," he wrote before describing how the plan would affect their districts.

Discussing Frost's district, which runs between Fort Worth and Dallas, Fortson said, "It simply disappears." He said black voters in Fort Worth would be shifted into a Republican-dominated district, black voters in Dallas would be sent to a nearby district that is already heavily black, and Hispanic voters would be moved into another GOP district.

"This is the D's best legal challenge as inner city Fort Worth will now be outnumbered in a Republican suburban district," Fortson wrote. However, he added, because the plan would also create a new African American district in Houston, it should withstand a challenge under the Voting Rights Act.

Doggett represents the liberal bastion of Austin and, according to the analysis, his district would be dismembered. His new territory would run from a conservative section in north central Austin to the outskirts of Houston and is "very Republican," Fortson wrote.

VIEW DEFENDED
Fortson was said to be on vacation yesterday and could not be reached for comment. But in a telephone interview, Barton said he had no reason to doubt that Fortson wrote the analysis. He defended Fortson's "First Amendment right" to distribute the analysis, but also tried to distance himself from his aide.

"Basically, I think he's got a right to express his own personal views, but they do not reflect my views at all," Barton said. "I have a very positive, professional relationship with all the Texas delegation, including the Democrats."

Barton also denied that the plan was designed for partisan advantage. He said it would produce more black, Hispanic and Republican members of Congress and would better reflect voting patterns.

In another section, Fortson described how the GOP plan would shift Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Tex.) into new, unfriendly territory.

"Chet loses his Killeen-Fort Hood base in exchange for conservative Johnson County," he wrote. "They will not like the fact he kills babies, prevents kids from praying and wants to take their guns. State Rep. Arlene Wohlgemuth (R), come on down, you are the next congressman from Texas."

HIGHLY PRECISE REDISTRICTING

Computer technology has made redistricting highly precise, a point illustrated by Fortson's analysis. It said Hispanic voters, who vote heavily Democratic, would be shifted from Frost's old district into a district represented by Rep. Pete Sessions (R), but that Sessions's territory would remain dominated by "rich Dallas and North Dallas."

House Majority Leader Tom De Lay (R-Tex.), the driving force behind the redistricting plan, would lose some reliably Republican voters, but not enough to endanger him, while the shifted voters would shore up the reelection prospects of another Republican, Rep. Ron Paul, Fortson said.

The plan would also throw two incumbents, Democrat Charles W. Stenholm and Republican Randy Neugebauer, into the same district. But Fortson said the district was crafted in such a way as to give it an "overwhelming R nature."

Democrats hold a 17 to 15 advantage in the Texas congressional delegation. Determined to break the Democratic majority, DeLay spent three days in Austin this week brokering the final shape of the redistricting plan.

The final issue centered on the insistence of Texas House Speaker Tom Craddick (R) on getting a new district anchored by his hometown of Midland and designed to be represented by K. Michael Conaway, a friend and former oil business partner of Bush. In his analysis, Fortson said the new 11th District, now represented by Edwards, would be "very Republican" and would switch to the GOP next year.