18
   

Despite a bipartisan effort...

 
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 6 Feb, 2009 04:40 pm
@maporsche,
maporsche wrote:

You're comparing actual job losses, w/o taking into account the actual number of jobs.

The number of actual, total jobs in 1990 is not equal to the number of jobs in 2008/9.

For example.

Lets say that there are 1000 jobs in 1990 and 200 jobs are lost. That 's a loss of 20%

In 2008 there are 10,000 jobs and 1,000 are lost. Thats' a loss of 10%.

Your graph would show the job loss being 200 in 1990 and 1000 in 2008 which is a large increase, until you look at the percentages.



I KNOW you're smart enough to know this.


<smacks forehead>

Yes, I understood what you were saying, Maporsche. You don't ever have to worry about me not getting something you write in the future, mkay?

I don't have the total job data for each of those years, but I do have the total population data -

1990 248,709,873
2000 281,421,906
2007 301,139,947

Look at those numbers and tell me if you honestly think that there has been such a surge in total American employment, it makes what appears to be the largest and fastest job loss on record into something more normal. 'cause I just don't see any evidence of your contention disproving the info of that graph. I'm going to keep looking for better numbers for ya.

Cycloptichorn
maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Fri 6 Feb, 2009 04:53 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Doesn't the unemployment rate do all this hard work for you?

The loss of jobs number really only means that options are fewer. My company for example eliminated 1000 jobs in the last quarter but retained 100% of it's workforce (other than those who chose to quit or were fired for performance reasons).

So, really, other than making it harder to leave your current job, losing 1000 jobs really didn't have much impact to anybody. It will impact future growth potential, but we all hope it's a short term deal.

Unemployment and underemployment are the numbers we should be focusing on right now.
maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Fri 6 Feb, 2009 05:01 pm
@maporsche,
I forgot to add that the jobs that were elminated were all open positions/postings. This is the case with most companies when they say they're eliminating jobs, the close their open reqs and shift resources around the company.
0 Replies
 
slkshock7
 
  1  
Reply Fri 6 Feb, 2009 05:13 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cyclo,
I'll be the first to admit I'm not an economist, and your chart is impressive but very suspect because it's evidently created by hyper-partisans in "the office of the speaker". Nevertheless, since you went to the trouble to find the chart and evidently have superior abilities to "read data", perhaps you'd be so kind as to explain to me what the heck a graph of "Job losses relative to peak months" means...and why I should care....

And I might even give you a point or two, if you can show me a similar chart from a reputable statistician.

And Cyclo, do you ever have a "good day"? I mean, a day that you can sit back and have fun with this board? You come across as angry, frustrated and paranoid, when you should be self-satisfied and amused. I know if our positions were reversed and my party was in firm control of all branches of government, I sure would be.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 6 Feb, 2009 05:26 pm
@maporsche,
maporsche wrote:

Doesn't the unemployment rate do all this hard work for you?


No, because that number doesn't reflect the actual unemployment picture in the country - just an idea of it. Seasonal adjustments and adjustments to the total ratio considered 'working' have been used over the last 30-40 years - by both Dem and Republican admins, there's no partisan blame here - to massage that number into something more palatable for each president.

At least, we should use the U-6 unemployment graph which accounts for underemployment.

Quote:
The loss of jobs number really only means that options are fewer. My company for example eliminated 1000 jobs in the last quarter but retained 100% of it's workforce (other than those who chose to quit or were fired for performance reasons).

So, really, other than making it harder to leave your current job, losing 1000 jobs really didn't have much impact to anybody. It will impact future growth potential, but we all hope it's a short term deal.

Unemployment and underemployment are the numbers we should be focusing on right now.


Presumably those positions were needed or they wouldn't have been 'jobs' in the first place.

Don't forget that we have to add jobs every month just to keep up with additions to the workforce - something like 100k just to stay even. If we're losing jobs, even on paper, it has an immediate impact in overall employment.

I agree that underemployment is critical; my brother is in that position now, his business just can't pay their employees to work 40 hours a week so he's only working 25 just trying to hold on.

Cycloptichorn
slkshock7
 
  1  
Reply Fri 6 Feb, 2009 05:31 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
cyclo wrote:
I don't have the total job data for each of those years...


Allow me to help.....

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/graphics/LNS12000000_9361_1233962361907.gif

In Dec 1974, there were 86,144,000 individuals in the US work force
In Dec 2009, there were 143,388,000 individuals in the US work force
according to Bureau of Labor Statistics

An increase of 66%....carrying the math further....a loss of 598,000 represents a 0.4% hit in 2008. The same loss in 1974 represents a 0.7% hit in 1974. Threfore, we would need to lose 1,004,000 jobs before we'd be in a similar predicament to 1974...almost twice as many.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 6 Feb, 2009 05:37 pm
@slkshock7,
slkshock7 wrote:

Cyclo,
I'll be the first to admit I'm not an economist, and your chart is impressive but very suspect because it's evidently created by hyper-partisans in "the office of the speaker". Nevertheless, since you went to the trouble to find the chart and evidently have superior abilities to "read data", perhaps you'd be so kind as to explain to me what the heck a graph of "Job losses relative to peak months" means...and why I should care....


'Job losses relative to peak months' refers to the total amount of jobs reported lost in the monthly unemployment numbers given out on a regular basis as compared to the highest previous point. You see charts like this often when dealing with the transition of economies from growth to recession. Basically, it says 'what was the maximum number of jobs we had, and how many have we lost since then, in what time frame?'

As you can see, it's not just that we've lost a lot of jobs; Maporsche is correct that the increase in the total population of America accounts for a little bit of the drop in comparison to previous recessions. What is troublesome is the immense speed at which we are losing them. And this is why people are worried and are looking for a fix to the problem; the slope of the graph is not a good one, it's not just a matter of jobs lost, it's that it appears to still be accelerating, meaning it's probably going to get worse.
Quote:

And I might even give you a point or two, if you can show me a similar chart from a reputable statistician.


I'll look for one for you.

Quote:
And Cyclo, do you ever have a "good day"? I mean, a day that you can sit back and have fun with this board? You come across as angry, frustrated and paranoid, when you should be self-satisfied and amused. I know if our positions were reversed and my party was in firm control of all branches of government, I sure would be.


I'm having a hard time being self-satisfied and amused, b/c our economic situation is bad. Not mine personally, but the nation as a whole. This is troubling to me, b/c after assuming office, Obama is basically hobbled in many of the programs and plans he had made, many of which I supported. Instead he will spend this year cleaning up the mess. There's not a lot to look forward to in that situation for a politico.

As for angry or frustrated? Never. I find A2K to be immensely enjoyable, and the intensity of discussion is one of the reasons. I feel very passionately about political issues and many others here do as well; that's not a bad thing.

Please keep in mind that as a young, well-paid, intelligent, attractive white male who is in great physical health, I am probably the most content person you'll ever meet with my own personal situation. This luckily frees up more of my time to focus on larger political issues.

To answer your question, I always have a 'good day' here on A2K. I think you may be misinterpreting me if you think I'm not.

Cycloptichorn
maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Fri 6 Feb, 2009 05:38 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Some of those jobs were needed, other's not so much. You see bloating in every larger company, and that's what a good portion of these jobs were (at least half).

Actually, elminating those jobs has probably done the company more good than harm in the near term (1-2 years). It has forced people to manage better, to trim the fat in their work processes, to focus on money making initiatives (because who has time to work on anything else).

We can't operate forever like this, but in 3 years when the economy turns around we won't have to.


And I'm not trying to make light of the job loss, and you're dead on about new workers (however I wonder what the retirement figure looks like, baby boomers have to be leaving sometime right?). It just whenever I see a graph like the one you posted (numbers taken out of context) I realize instantly it was created to advance an agenda and I'm ALWAYS suspicious of that agenda.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 6 Feb, 2009 05:43 pm
@slkshock7,
slkshock7 wrote:

cyclo wrote:
I don't have the total job data for each of those years...


Allow me to help.....

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/graphics/LNS12000000_9361_1233962361907.gif

In Dec 1974, there were 86,144,000 individuals in the US work force
In Dec 2009, there were 143,388,000 individuals in the US work force
according to Bureau of Labor Statistics

An increase of 66%....carrying the math further....a loss of 598,000 represents a 0.4% hit in 2008. The same loss in 1974 represents a 0.7% hit in 1974. Threfore, we would need to lose 1,004,000 jobs before we'd be in a similar predicament to 1974...almost twice as many.


Thanks for finding that graph for me, that's exactly what I was looking for.

You probably meant Dec 2008 above next to the 143 mil. number. But realize that that's already a year into the recession. Here's the graph again -

http://timeswampland.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/joblosses26091.gif?w=580&h=385

There's about 13 months into the recession, and it's still speeding up. Not a good sign. By 13 months in to our last two slowdowns, we had already seen a pronounced flattening in the graph of job losses. We haven't even seen a hint of flattening yet here.

This accompanied the graph -

Quote:
This chart compares the job loss so far in this recession to job losses in the 1990-1991 recession and the 2001 recession -- showing how dramatic and unprecedented the job loss over the last 13 months has been. Over the last 13 months, our economy has lost a total of 3.6 million jobs " and continuing job losses in the next few months are predicted.

By comparison, we lost a total of 1.6 million jobs in the 1990-1991 recession, before the economy began turning around and jobs began increasing; and we lost a total of 2.7 million jobs in the 2001 recession, before the economy began turning around and jobs began increasing.


Even counting the larger workforce we enjoy today, the amount of jobs lost and the fact that the amount is not slowing down are bad signs.

Cycloptichorn
maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Fri 6 Feb, 2009 05:53 pm
[img][/img]I do wish this chart showed the 12 month preceding the peak month. Something tells me that the paper job growth leading up to the peak month was much greater than 2000 and 1990. When we see large increases you expect larger decreases. And again if this is coupled with reletively low unemployment rates the it may not be as bad as this graph shows, especially when you realize that this graph was created for a very specific reason/agenda.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 6 Feb, 2009 05:53 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Btw, CNN is reporting that the Senate has reached a deal on a 780 billion dollar stimulus package.

Seems that some of the stuff Republicans objected to was trimmed out after all...

Cycloptichorn
slkshock7
 
  1  
Reply Fri 6 Feb, 2009 05:54 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cyclo wrote:
'Job losses relative to peak months' refers to the total amount of jobs reported lost in the monthly unemployment numbers given out on a regular basis as compared to the highest previous point. You see charts like this often when dealing with the transition of economies from growth to recession. Basically, it says 'what was the maximum number of jobs we had, and how many have we lost since then, in what time frame?'


OK, got it...then what is needed here is are "Job Losses Relative to Peak Months" for the 1980 recession and the 1974 recession. But I'll be honest, unless the 2008 charts show significantly worse stats than either of these recessions, I won't believe we need or should take the drastic actions Obama and Congress are considering.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Fri 6 Feb, 2009 05:59 pm
I don't believe the unemployment rate is based on the overall population. What the unemployment rate intends to measure are the number of people who want to work but can't find work or, in other words, those in the labor force who are not working. It is therefore one of several barometers measuring economic health despite changing populations and demographics.

Quote:
Overall Unemployment Rate in the U.S. Civilian Labor Force, 1920""2007 Here's a look at the U.S. unemployment rate for selected years from 1920 to 2007.
Year Rate
1920 5.2 %
1928 4.2
1930 8.7
1932 23.6
1934 21.7
1936 16.9
1938 19.0
1940 14.6
1942 4.7%
1944 1.2
1946 3.9
1948 3.8
1950 5.3
1952 3.0
1954 5.5
1956 4.1
1958 6.8%
1960 5.5
1962 5.5
1964 5.2
1966 3.8
1968 3.6
1970 4.9
1972 5.6
1974 5.6%
1976 7.7
19781 6.1
1980 7.1
1982 9.7
1984 7.5
19861 7.0
1987 6.2
1988 5.5
1989 5.3
19901 5.6%
1991 6.8
1992 7.5
1993 6.9
19941 6.1
1995 5.6
1996 5.4
19971 4.9
19981 4.5
19991 4.2
20001 4.0
2001 4.7
2002 5.8
20031 6.0%
20041 5.5
20051 5.1
2006 4.6
2007 4.6

NOTES: Estimates prior to 1940 are based on sources other than direct enumeration. Data prior to 1948 are for persons age 14 and over. Data beginning in 1948 are for persons age 16 and over.
1. Not strictly comparable with prior years.
2. Beginning in Jan. 2006, data are not strictly comparable with data for 2005 and earlier years because of the revisions in the population controls used in the household survey.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Web: stats.bls.gov
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0104719.html
0 Replies
 
slkshock7
 
  1  
Reply Fri 6 Feb, 2009 06:05 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Source
Quote:

WASHINGTON (AP) - Amid stunning new job losses and yet another bank failure, key senators and the White House reached tentative agreement Friday night on an economic stimulus measure at the heart of President Barack Obama's recovery plan. Two officials said the emerging agreement was for a bill with a $780 billion price tag, but there was no immediate confirmation.
The tentative agreement capped a tense day of back room negotiations in which Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, joined by White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, sought to attract the support of enough Republicans to give the measure the needed 60-vote majority.

Officials strongly suggested that Sen. Edward M. Kennedy's vote would be needed to assure passage. The Massachusetts Democrat, battling a brain tumor, has been in Florida in recent days and has not been in the Capitol since suffering a seizure on Inauguration Day more than two weeks ago. The senator's office did not comment.


Well, it looks like it's going down with absolute minimal Repub support if they're desperate to bring in a Democrat Senator possibly on his death bed. Others will fight me on this opinion, and it may be wishful thinking, but I think the Republicans, in the long run, will still come ahead on this one. Clearly this is a Democrat bill and they deserve all the credit but I expect it is more likely they will reap all of the blame. In a few months, when the economy is still in the doldrums, you will see a harsh backlash of the American public against the ineptitude and impotence of this Democrat-controlled Congress.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 6 Feb, 2009 06:08 pm
@slkshock7,
slkshock7 wrote:

Source
Quote:

WASHINGTON (AP) - Amid stunning new job losses and yet another bank failure, key senators and the White House reached tentative agreement Friday night on an economic stimulus measure at the heart of President Barack Obama's recovery plan. Two officials said the emerging agreement was for a bill with a $780 billion price tag, but there was no immediate confirmation.
The tentative agreement capped a tense day of back room negotiations in which Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, joined by White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, sought to attract the support of enough Republicans to give the measure the needed 60-vote majority.

Officials strongly suggested that Sen. Edward M. Kennedy's vote would be needed to assure passage. The Massachusetts Democrat, battling a brain tumor, has been in Florida in recent days and has not been in the Capitol since suffering a seizure on Inauguration Day more than two weeks ago. The senator's office did not comment.


Well, it looks like it's going down with absolute minimal Repub support if they're desperate to bring in a Democrat Senator possibly on his death bed. Others will fight me on this opinion, and it may be wishful thinking, but I think the Republicans, in the long run, will still come ahead on this one. Clearly this is a Democrat bill and they deserve all the credit but I expect it is more likely they will reap all of the blame. In a few months, when the economy is still in the doldrums, you will see a harsh backlash of the American public against the ineptitude and impotence of this Democrat-controlled Congress.


You are correct that by opposing this bill, the Republicans have surely cast their die against any recovery.

But I think it's important to remember that it takes a while for things to get up to speed. The next few months are going to be tough no matter what this bill does; you can't just start spending billions of dollars overnight, it takes time to build up the infrastructure to do so, hire people, get jobs started et cetera.

A large part of the success of this effort will rely upon the salesmanship of Obama. So far the Gallup poll numbers show that he is doing a pretty good job of it, but not quite as good as he could be. It will be critical in the upcoming months for him to remain a leader on this issue instead of just dropping it and hoping things will get better on their own; they won't.

Cycloptichorn
parados
 
  1  
Reply Fri 6 Feb, 2009 06:12 pm
@slkshock7,
Where you around the last time unemployment was at 11%?

Recessions come but unemployment at 11% causes some pain.
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Fri 6 Feb, 2009 06:13 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
It pretty unfair to state that republicans are against any recovery. They are against the democrats form of recovery, but as we've talked about, there is more than one way to skin a cat. We will see if this one works.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 6 Feb, 2009 06:15 pm
@maporsche,
maporsche wrote:

It pretty unfair to state that republicans are against any recovery. They are against the democrats form of recovery, but as we've talked about, there is more than one way to skin a cat. We will see if this one works.


Are you referring to their tax cut recovery plan? C'mon, pull the other one!

No serious economist believes that cutting corporate tax rates, cap gains taxes, or small business taxes will have any real stimulus effect.

Cycloptichorn
maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Fri 6 Feb, 2009 06:22 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
You know what they say about economists cyclops. Ask two of them for their opinion on something and you get three answers.

"No serious economist" I'd love to know your criteria for determining who a serious economist is.
maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Fri 6 Feb, 2009 06:27 pm
Personally, I'm really leaning toward the do nothing recovery plan.
0 Replies
 
 

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