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2008 Election Results Thread

 
 
Reply Tue 4 Nov, 2008 04:14 pm
Getting close now. It's exciting and kinda scary at the same time.

If you happen to stumble upon exit polling, early results, or whatever- do share!

Cycloptichorn
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Type: Discussion • Score: 6 • Views: 1,552 • Replies: 16
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Nov, 2008 04:24 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
And our first exit poll results from CNN -

76% of the country believes it's off on the wrong track.

Bush's approval rating is 27%

More than 60% say the economy is their top voting issue; 9 in ten say the economy is in bad shape; more than 80% are worried about their own condition next year.

Change voters made up 35% of the electorate; 30% wanted someone who shared their values.

One in ten voters are late-deciders..

And CNN tells us that of those who listed Iraq as a key issue, Obama's leading two to one.

Cycloptichorn
JTT
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Nov, 2008 04:37 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Quote:
Bush's approval rating is 27%


How can a group of people be so ******* stupid. I hope all these folks are going to use Bush as write in vote.
roger
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Nov, 2008 04:39 pm
@JTT,
Oh, come on. There's usually 10% who can't come up with the president's name.
0 Replies
 
Gargamel
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Nov, 2008 04:39 pm
@JTT,
JTT wrote:

Quote:
Bush's approval rating is 27%


How can a group of people be so ******* stupid. I hope all these folks are going to use Bush as write in vote.


I just think he's a nice man.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Nov, 2008 04:42 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
72% of new voters for Obama.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Nov, 2008 04:56 pm
@sozobe,
sozobe wrote:

72% of new voters for Obama.


Wow. Kerry only won those by 6% or so. That's a great result for Captain O!

Only a few minutes now.

Cycloptichorn
JTT
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Nov, 2008 05:16 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
For you real political wonks, if you haven't seen this already.

Could someone explain to me what "Win Percentage" means. I saw it in one of Cy's postings the other day and again at the site the following is from. It shows Obama at 98.9% and McCain at 1.1%.

Quote:
Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls

Oh, let me count the ways. Almost all of this, by the way, is lifted from Mark Bluemthnal's outstanding Exit Poll FAQ. For the long version, see over there.

1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls. This is because of what are known as cluster sampling techniques. Exit polls are not conducted at all precincts, but only at some fraction thereof. Although these precincts are selected at random and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). This makes the margins for error somewhere between 50-90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys.

2. Exit polls have consistently overstated the Democratic share of the vote. Many of you will recall this happening in 2004, when leaked exit polls suggested that John Kerry would have a much better day than he actually had. But this phenomenon was hardly unique to 2004. In 2000, for instance, exit polls had Al Gore winning states like Alabama and Georgia (!). If you go back and watch The War Room, you'll find George Stephanopolous and James Carville gloating over exit polls showing Bill Clinton winning states like Indiana and Texas, which of course he did not win.

3. Exit polls were particularly bad in this year's primaries. They overstated Barack Obama's performance by an average of about 7 points.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit.html

Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Nov, 2008 05:19 pm
The waiting is the hardest part now (it's already Wednesday here).
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Nov, 2008 05:29 pm
@JTT,
That site, 538.com, does a Regression analysis on the election. That is to say, the guy who runs it takes the polling numbers and uses them to run 10,000 simulation elections. The percentage 'win chance' is the percent of simulations in which the candidate in question wins the election.

Cycloptichorn
JTT
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Nov, 2008 05:57 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Thanks, Cy.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Nov, 2008 06:01 pm
@JTT,
McCain wins Kentucky.

Obama wins Vermont.

IN too close to call.

GA too early to call, probably McCain.

VA too early to call, probably Obama.

SC too early to call, probably McCain.

Cycloptichorn
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Nov, 2008 06:03 pm
CNN has given Kentucky to McCain.

Obama should concede.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Nov, 2008 06:03 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Mark Warner wins the Senate in VA.

All the above per MSNBC.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
littlek
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Nov, 2008 06:12 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Ach! McCain is winning!
0 Replies
 
JTT
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Nov, 2008 06:14 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Quote:
SC too early to call, probably McCain.


So they've forgiven him for fathering the black child?
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  2  
Reply Tue 4 Nov, 2008 06:22 pm
For anyone wanting to watch results online via streaming, CSPAN has started coverage.

http://www.c-span.org/Watch/C-SPAN_wm.aspx


and MSNBC is live streaming:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22887506#22887506
0 Replies
 
 

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