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Wed 22 Oct, 2008 02:47 pm
Hamas And Hezbollah Plan Final Battle
October 22, 2008: In the West Bank, Palestinian radicals have encouraged the greater use of gasoline bombs (gas or kerosene in a bottle with a lit rag as a fuze) for attacks on soldiers and Israeli settlers. The fire bombs make for more spectacular visuals and are more likely to injure their targets. In response, the police and soldiers have been shooting to kill when the fire bombs appear, or are suspected. The Palestinians, and most of the foreign media, tend to spin this as Israeli troops murdering Palestinian children (teenagers are the most eager to use the fire bombs, and the least fearful of the consequences).
Lebanon remains deadlocked between the meek Christian/Sunni/Druze majority and the Shia, Hezbollah dominated, minority. The majority of Lebanese would like to be free of Hezbollah and Syrian terrorism, but do not want to trigger another civil war. Hezbollah is led by Shia religious fanatics who don't care how much damage they cause, because they are on a Mission From God to destroy Israel and turn the entire region into an Islamic religious dictatorship. The Lebanese compromise by continually complaining to the UN, and the world, about the regular Israeli reconnaissance missions over Lebanon. What these photo recon aircraft are watching is Hezbollah bring more rockets, and other weapons, from Syria into southern Lebanon. The UN peacekeepers ignore this (after Hezbollah threatened to go all terrorist on them if they made a stink), and the Lebanese government just complains about the Israeli recon flights.
In Gaza, Hamas has copied Hezbollah (with the help of Hezbollah advisors) and created a dictatorship dedicated to the destruction of Israel. Many, perhaps even a majority, of the 1.4 million Gaza Palestinians now oppose Hamas, but they keep quiet. Hamas police have crushed all the family based gangs that long dominated the Gaza economy. The gangs are still there, but mainly to make money. Hundreds of tunnels from Egypt bring in mostly commercial goods (including live stock like calves and sheep to be slaughtered for the Moslem religious holidays), but also weapons (especially longer range rockets for the big attack on Israel). Hamas gets enough money and foreign food and medical aid to keep the population alive. Fatah is allowed to pay 70,000 civil servants in Gaza (for not working, and continuing to silently support Fatah). Hamas gets enough cash from Iran and Gulf Arab fans each month to pay salaries to 20,000 of its own supporters. Hamas also taxes the tunnel operations, and anyone making money. Thus Hamas survives, but does not thrive. Hamas is apparently planning to set up a separate Palestinian state, dedicated to terrorism and radicalism. Hamas is on a Mission From God, so logic and reality have little to do with their long range planning. There is some kind of plan, apparently involving Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.
Egypt is trying to crack down on the smuggling of arms and terrorists via the Gaza tunnels, while not upsetting the non-terrorist smugglers. The latter are far more numerous, and cracking down on them would antagonize many of the Bedouin clans in Sinai. However, Hamas pays high fees for weapons to be brought in via the tunnels, and a lot of Egyptians are getting rich off this arms trade. The Egyptians fear that Gaza will become a base for Egyptian terrorists. So far, Hamas appears to have forbidden that, or is keeping any Egyptian Islamic terrorists it is sheltering under wraps.
October 21, 2008: For the first time in nearly a month, a rocket was fired from Gaza into Israel. In landed in the desert and no one was injured. Israel closed the Gaza crossings and demanded that Hamas arrest the culprits. A new terrorist group in Gaza, "the Brigades of Hezbollah in Palestine," took credit for the rocket.
The Gaza ceasefire ends next month. Hamas wants a three month extension, because they do not believe they have stockpiled sufficient rockets for a decisive attack (in conjunction with Hezbollah in Lebanon) on Israel. But Israel is not keen on an extension unless their captured soldier is released. Israel has used the ceasefire to build up defenses (against rocket attacks) in southern Israel, and would not like to return to military operations inside Gaza, to weaken Hamas military preparations.
October 14, 2008: In the West Bank, an Israeli ambush patrol caught three Palestinian teenagers, carrying more than ten fire bombs, moving towards an Israeli settlement. One Palestinian, a 18 year old, was killed, while the other two ran away in the dark. Ten fire bombs were recovered at the scene.
strategypage.com
My advice to Israel: Heave the slammites out of the West Bank and Gaza, and invite the Lebanese Christians to move into those areas; at that point you could do whatever you wanted to with South Lebanon next time around.
@Advocate,
Advocate wrote:
Lebanon remains deadlocked between the meek Christian/Sunni/Druze majority and the Shia, Hezbollah dominated, minority.
Interesting report, Advocate, but I would hardly describe the Christian Phalangi as meek.
Here is an interesting piece in Haaretz. Where will it all end.
Security services list possible Hezbollah targets
By Barak Ravid
Israel's intelligence community has drawn up a list of dozens of former senior security officials who are liable to be targets of Hezbollah attacks.
The list was prepared in response Hezbollah's threats to avenge the assassination of its "operations officer," Imad Mughniyeh, last February. Hezbollah blames Israel for the killing. Advertisement
A senior security source said that following the assassination, the Counterterrorism Bureau, which works out of the Prime Minister's Office, called a series of meetings on Hezbollah's likely response. The meetings were attended by representatives of all the intelligence agencies - the Shin Bet, the Mossad and Military Intelligence - as well as the Foreign Ministry and the police. The main goal, he said, was to try to prevent another incident like Hezbollah's abduction in 2000 of Elhanan Tennenbaum, a former senior Israel Defense Forces officer who went into business after retiring from the army.
The meetings resulted in a decision that every security agency should draw up a list of former senior officials who might be vulnerable to a Hezbollah assassination or kidnapping. "Each organization was asked to define those of its retirees on whom an attack might be viewed as equivalent in value to the assassination of Mughniyeh," the senior source said.
The criteria for inclusion on this list include the person's seniority in his organization, his current public prominence, and the risk to which his current occupation is likely to expose him.
Each security agency drafted a list of a few dozen names. The agencies then devised procedures for exchanging information on subjects such as those individuals' trips abroad, potential threats, and intelligence warnings of planned attacks. In a few cases, people on the list have been assigned protection by either Israeli security agencies or local agencies in the countries to which they traveled.
Since Mughniyeh's assassination, Israel has received numerous intelligence warnings of Hezbollah's plans to avenge the killing by attacking Israeli or Jewish targets overseas. A few attempted attacks have already been foiled by cooperation between Israeli and foreign security services.
About six weeks ago, the media reported that the defense establishment had warned various former senior security officials who do business in Muslim countries with which Israel does not have diplomatic relations about the threat of a Hezbollah kidnap attempt. A few months earlier, Israeli businessmen active in western Africa were warned of a Hezbollah plot to kidnap or kill them.
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